Application of an Integrated Ensemble-Based History Matching Approach - An Offshore Field Case Study

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Usman Aslam ◽  
Luis Hernando Perez Cardenas ◽  
Andrey Klimushin
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
History Matching ◽  
Supervised Machine Learning ◽  
Sensor Data ◽  
Production Data ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Structural Uncertainty ◽  
Reservoir Model ◽  
Digital Twin ◽  
Reservoir Models

Abstract The Internet of Things has popularized the notion of a digital twin - a virtual representation of a physical system. There are substantial risks associated with designing a development plan for an oilfield and the industry has been making use of reservoir models - digital twins - to improve the decision-making process for many years. With an increase in the availability of computational resources, the industry is moving towards ensemble-based workflows to estimate risk in field development plans. In this paper, we demonstrate the use of an integrated ensemble-based approach to assess uncertainties in the reservoir models and quantify their impact on the decision-making process. An important feature of a digital twin is its ability to use sensor data to update the virtual model, more commonly known as history matching or data assimilation. We demonstrate how production data can be used to identify and constrain the uncertainties in the reservoir model. Production data is incorporated using Bayesian statistics and state-of-the-art supervised machine learning techniques to create an ensemble of models that capture the range of uncertainties in the reservoir model. This ensemble of calibrated models with an improved predictive ability provides a realistic assessment of the uncertainty associated with production forecasts. The ensemble-based approach is demonstrated through its application on an offshore oilfield located in the North Sea. The field is highly compartmentalized and has high structural uncertainty following the interpretation and depth conversion. An integrated cross-domain model is set up to incorporate typically ignored structural uncertainty in addition to the uncertainties and their dependencies in the dynamic parameters, including fault transmissibility, pore-volume, fluid contacts, saturation, and relative permeability endpoints, etc. Results from the history matched ensemble of models show a significa nt reduction in uncertainty in these parameters and the predicted production. An advantage of the proposed technique is that the automated, repeatable, and auditable ensemble-based workflow can assimilate the newly acquired measured data into the reservoir model at any time, keeping the model up-to-date and evergreen.

A Practical Data Integration Approach to History Matching: Application to a Deepwater Reservoir

SPE Journal ◽  
2006 ◽  
Vol 11 (04) ◽  
pp. 464-479 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Todd Hoffman ◽  
Jef K. Caers ◽  
Xian-Huan Wen ◽  
Sebastien B. Strebelle
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Data ◽  
History Matching ◽  
Production Data ◽  
Well Log ◽  
Initial Model ◽  
Reservoir Model ◽  
Dynamic Data ◽  
History Match ◽  
Reservoir Models ◽  
Geologic Information

Summary This paper presents an innovative methodology to integrate prior geologic information, well-log data, seismic data, and production data into a consistent 3D reservoir model. Furthermore, the method is applied to a real channel reservoir from the African coast. The methodology relies on the probability-perturbation method (PPM). Perturbing probabilities rather than actual petrophysical properties guarantees that the conceptual geologic model is maintained and that any history-matching-related artifacts are avoided. Creating reservoir models that match all types of data are likely to have more prediction power than methods in which some data are not honored. The first part of the paper reviews the details of the PPM, and the next part of this paper describes the additional work that is required to history-match real reservoirs using this method. Then, a geological description of the reservoir case study is provided, and the procedure to build 3D reservoir models that are only conditioned to the static data is covered. Because of the character of the field, the channels are modeled with a multiple-point geostatistical method. The channel locations are perturbed in a manner such that the oil, water, and gas rates from the reservoir more accurately match the rates observed in the field. Two different geologic scenarios are used, and multiple history-matched models are generated for each scenario. The reservoir has been producing for approximately 5 years, but the models are matched only to the first 3 years of production. Afterward, to check predictive power, the matched models are run for the last 1½ years, and the results compare favorably with the field data. Introduction Reservoir models are constructed to better understand reservoir behavior and to better predict reservoir response. Economic decisions are often based on the predictions from reservoir models; therefore, such predictions need to be as accurate as possible. To achieve this goal, the reservoir model should honor all sources of data, including well-log, seismic, geologic information, and dynamic (production rate and pressure) data. Incorporating dynamic data into the reservoir model is generally known as history matching. History matching is difficult because it poses a nonlinear inverse problem in the sense that the relationship between the reservoir model parameters and the dynamic data is highly nonlinear and multiple solutions are avail- able. Therefore, history matching is often done with a trial-and-error method. In real-world applications of history matching, reservoir engineers manually modify an initial model provided by geoscientists until the production data are matched. The initial model is built based on geological and seismic data. While attempts are usually made to honor these other data as much as possible, often the history-matched models are unrealistic from a geological (and geophysical) point of view. For example, permeability is often altered to increase or decrease flow in areas where a mismatch is observed; however, the permeability alterations usually come in the form of box-shaped or pipe-shaped geometries centered around wells or between wells and tend to be devoid of any geologica. considerations. The primary focus lies in obtaining a history match.

Real-Time Reservoir Model Updating Using Ensemble Kalman Filter With Confirming Option

SPE Journal ◽  
2006 ◽  
Vol 11 (04) ◽  
pp. 431-442 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xian-Huan Wen ◽  
Wen H. Chen
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Ensemble Kalman Filter ◽  
History Matching ◽  
Model Updating ◽  
Production Data ◽  
Reservoir Model ◽  
Automatic History Matching ◽  
Flow Equations ◽  
Matching Process ◽  
Reservoir Models

Summary The ensemble Kalman Filter technique (EnKF) has been reported to be very efficient for real-time updating of reservoir models to match the most current production data. Using EnKF, an ensemble of reservoir models assimilating the most current observations of production data is always available. Thus, the estimations of reservoir model parameters, and their associated uncertainty, as well as the forecasts are always up-to-date. In this paper, we apply the EnKF for continuously updating an ensemble of permeability models to match real-time multiphase production data. We improve the previous EnKF by adding a confirming option (i.e., the flow equations are re-solved from the previous assimilating step to the current step using the updated current permeability models). By doing so, we ensure that the updated static and dynamic parameters are always consistent with the flow equations at the current step. However, it also creates some inconsistency between the static and dynamic parameters at the previous step where the confirming starts. Nevertheless, we show that, with the confirming approach, the filter shows better performance for the particular example investigated. We also investigate the sensitivity of using a different number of realizations in the EnKF. Our results show that a relatively large number of realizations are needed to obtain stable results, particularly for the reliable assessment of uncertainty. The sensitivity of using different covariance functions is also investigated. The efficiency and robustness of the EnKF is demonstrated using an example. By assimilating more production data, new features of heterogeneity in the reservoir model can be revealed with reduced uncertainty, resulting in more accurate predictions of reservoir production. Introduction The reliability of reservoir models could increase as more data are included in their construction. Traditionally, static (hard and soft) data, such as geological, geophysical, and well log/core data are incorporated into reservoir geological models through conditional geostatistical simulation (Deutsch and Journel 1998). Dynamic production data, such as historical measurements of reservoir production, account for the majority of reservoir data collected during the production phase. These data are directly related to the recovery process and to the response variables that form the basis for reservoir management decisions. Incorporation of dynamic data is typically done through a history-matching process. Traditionally, history matching adjusts model variables (such as permeability, porosity, and transmissibility) so that the flow simulation results using the adjusted parameters match the observations. It usually requires repeated flow simulations. Both manual and (semi-) automatic history-matching processes are available in the industry (Chen et al. 1974; He et al. 1996; Landa and Horne 1997; Milliken and Emanuel 1998; Vasco et al. 1998; Wen et al. 1998a, 1998b; Roggero and Hu 1998; Agarwal and Blunt 2003; Caers 2003; Cheng et al. 2004). Automatic history matching is usually formulated in the form of a minimization problem in which the mismatch between measurements and computed values is minimized (Tarantola 1987; Sun 1994). Gradient-based methods are widely employed for such minimization problems, which require the computation of sensitivity coefficients (Li et al. 2003; Wen et al. 2003; Gao and Reynolds 2006). In the recent decade, automatic history matching has been a very active research area with significant progress reported (Cheng et al. 2004; Gao and Reynolds 2006; Wen et al. 1997). However, most approaches are either limited to small and simple reservoir models or are computationally too intensive for practical applications. Under the framework of traditional history matching, the assessment of uncertainty is usually through a repeated history-matching process with different initial models, which makes the process even more CPU-demanding. In addition, the traditional history-matching methods are not designed in such a fashion that allows for continuous model updating. When new production data are available and are required to be incorporated, the history-matching process has to be repeated using all measured data. These limit the efficiency and applicability of the traditional automatic history-matching techniques.

scholarly journals Digital Twin for Monitoring Ergonomics during Manufacturing Production

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (21) ◽  
pp. 7758
Author(s):  
Alessandro Greco ◽  
Mario Caterino ◽  
Marcello Fera ◽  
Salvatore Gerbino
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Methodological Framework ◽  
Production Lines ◽  
Work Activities ◽  
Digital Twin ◽  
Set Up ◽  
Operational Issues ◽  
Smart Factories

Within the era of smart factories, concerning the ergonomics related to production processes, the Digital Twin (DT) is the key to set up novel models for monitoring the performance of manual work activities, which are able to provide results in near real time and to support the decision-making process for improving the working conditions. This paper aims to propose a methodological framework that, by implementing a human DT, and supports the monitoring and the decision making regarding the ergonomics performances of manual production lines. A case study, carried out in a laboratory, is presented for demonstrating the applicability and the effectiveness of the proposed framework. The results show how it is possible to identify the operational issues of a manual workstation and how it is possible to propose and test improving solutions.

Efficient handling of fault properties using the Juxtaposition Table Method

2020 ◽  
Vol 496 (1) ◽  
pp. 199-207 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tor Anders Knai ◽  
Guillaume Lescoffit
Keyword(s):  
History Matching ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Production Data ◽  
Gas Reservoirs ◽  
Fault Rock ◽  
Field Development ◽  
Table Method ◽  
Reservoir Models ◽  
Complete Life Cycle ◽  
Fault Properties

AbstractFaults are known to affect the way that fluids can flow in clastic oil and gas reservoirs. Fault barriers either stop fluids from passing across or they restrict and direct the fluid flow, creating static or dynamic reservoir compartments. Representing the effect of these barriers in reservoir models is key to establishing optimal plans for reservoir drainage, field development and production.Fault property modelling is challenging, however, as observations of faults in nature show a rapid and unpredictable variation in fault rock content and architecture. Fault representation in reservoir models will necessarily be a simplification, and it is important that the uncertainty ranges are captured in the input parameters. History matching also requires flexibility in order to handle a wide variety of data and observations.The Juxtaposition Table Method is a new technique that efficiently handles all relevant geological and production data in fault property modelling. The method provides a common interface that is easy to relate to for all petroleum technology disciplines, and allows a close cooperation between the geologist and reservoir engineer in the process of matching the reservoir model to observed production behaviour. Consequently, the method is well suited to handling fault property modelling in the complete life cycle of oil and gas fields, starting with geological predictions and incorporating knowledge of dynamic reservoir behaviour as production data become available.

Fit-For-Purpose History Matching Approach for A Low-Quality Reservoir Under Waterflood: Integration of Uncertain Production Allocation

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Syafwan
Keyword(s):  
History Matching ◽  
Production Data ◽  
Reservoir Pressure ◽  
Reservoir Model ◽  
Production Forecast ◽  
Oil Saturation ◽  
Production Allocation ◽  
Fluid Production ◽  
Fit For Purpose ◽  
Well Level

This paper presents a fit-for-purpose approach to mitigate zonal production data allocation uncertainty during history matching of a reservoir simulation model due to limited production logging data. To avoid propagating perforation/production zone allocation uncertainty at commingled wells into the history matched reservoir model, only well-level production data from historical periods when production was from a single zone were used to calibrate reservoir properties that determine initial volumetric. Then, during periods of the history with commingled production, average reservoir pressure measurements were integrated into the model to allocate fluid production to the target reservoir. Last, the periods constrained by dedicated well-level fluid production and average reservoir pressure were merged over the forty-eight-year history to construct a single history matched reservoir model in preparation for waterflood performance forecasting. This innovative history matching approach, which mitigates the impacts of production allocation uncertainty by using different intervals of the historical data to calibrate model saturations and model pressures, has provided a new interpretation of OOIP and current recovery factor, as well as drive mechanisms including aquifer strength and capillary pressure. Fluid allocation from the target reservoir in the history matched model is 85% lower than previously estimated. The history matched model was used as a quantitative forecasting and optimization tool to expand the recent waterflood with improved production forecast reliability. The remaining mobile oil saturation map and streamline-based waterflood diagnostics have improved understanding of injector-producer connectivity and swept pore volumes, e.g., current swept volumes are minor and well-centric with limited indication of breakthrough at adjacent producers resulting in high remaining mobile oil saturation. Accordingly, the history matched model provides a foundation to select new injection points, determine dedicated producer locations and support optimized injection strategies to improve recovery.

Quantitative 4D Seismic Assisted History Matching Using Ensemble-Based Methods on the Vilje Field

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Konrad Wojnar ◽  
Jon S?trom ◽  
Tore Felix Munck ◽  
Martha Stunell ◽  
Stig Sviland-Østre ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Seismic Data ◽  
History Matching ◽  
Reservoir Characterization ◽  
Reservoir Management ◽  
History Match ◽  
Field Development ◽  
Qualitative And Quantitative ◽  
Reservoir Models ◽  
4D Seismic

Abstract The aim of the study was to create an ensemble of equiprobable models that could be used for improving the reservoir management of the Vilje field. Qualitative and quantitative workflows were developed to systematically and efficiently screen, analyze and history match an ensemble of reservoir simulation models to production and 4D seismic data. The goal of developing the workflows is to increase the utilization of data from 4D seismic surveys for reservoir characterization. The qualitative and quantitative workflows are presented, describing their benefits and challenges. The data conditioning produced a set of history matched reservoir models which could be used in the field development decision making process. The proposed workflows allowed for identification of outlying prior and posterior models based on key features where observed data was not covered by the synthetic 4D seismic realizations. As a result, suggestions for a more robust parameterization of the ensemble were made to improve data coverage. The existing history matching workflow efficiently integrated with the quantitative 4D seismic history matching workflow allowing for the conditioning of the reservoir models to production and 4D data. Thus, the predictability of the models was improved. This paper proposes a systematic and efficient workflow using ensemble-based methods to simultaneously screen, analyze and history match production and 4D seismic data. The proposed workflow improves the usability of 4D seismic data for reservoir characterization, and in turn, for the reservoir management and the decision-making processes.

Probabilistic Economical Evaluation for Business Decisions Through Integrated Uncertainty Assessment and Reliable Ensemble-Based Production Forecasts

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammed Abd-Allah ◽  
Ahmed Abdelrahman ◽  
Luke Van Den Brul ◽  
Taha Taha ◽  
Mohammad Ali Javed
Keyword(s):  
Economic Evaluation ◽  
History Matching ◽  
Dynamic Models ◽  
Traditional Approach ◽  
Integrated Modelling ◽  
Economic Evaluations ◽  
Reservoir Model ◽  
Model Uncertainties ◽  
Reservoir Models ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Economic evaluation of exploration and production projects ensures a positive return for asset operators and stakeholders and evaluates risk in field development decisions related to both reservoir model uncertainties and fluctuations in oil and gas prices. Traditionally, such evaluation is performed manually and deterministically using single or limited number of cases (limited number of reservoir models and few values of economic parameters). Such traditional approach does not integrate seismic-to-simulation reservoir model uncertainties, the reservoir model used is often unreliable due to inconsistent property modifications during the history matching process, full span of prediction uncertainty isn't properly propagated for economic evaluation and the whole process is not fully automated. This paper presents an integrated and automated forward modelling approach where static and dynamic models are connected to integrate the impact of uncertainties at the different modelling stages (seismic interpretation through geological modelling to dynamic simulation and further to economic evaluations). The approach is demonstrated using synthetic 3D model data mimicking a real North Sea field. It starts by building an integrated modelling workflow that can capture the various reservoir model uncertainties at different stages to automatically generate multiple probable model realisations. Proxy models are constructed and used to refine the history match in successive batches. For each prediction development scenario, prediction probabilities are estimated using posterior ensemble of geologically consistent runs that matches historical observed data. The ensemble of reservoir models is automatically evaluated against different possible economic scenarios. The approach presents a seamless and innovative workflow that benefits from new-generation hardware and software, enables faster simultaneous realisations, produces consistent and more reliable reservoir models. Probabilistic economic evaluation concept is implemented to calculate the statistical probabilities of economic indicators.

Combining Saturation Changes and 4D Seismic for Updating Reservoir Characterizations

2006 ◽  
Vol 9 (05) ◽  
pp. 502-512 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arne Skorstad ◽  
Odd Kolbjornsen ◽  
Asmund Drottning ◽  
Havar Gjoystdal ◽  
Olaf K. Huseby
Keyword(s):  
Wave Velocity ◽  
Seismic Data ◽  
History Matching ◽  
Reservoir Characterization ◽  
Seismic Survey ◽  
Production Data ◽  
Reservoir Model ◽  
Simple Method ◽  
4D Seismic ◽  
Elastic Inversion

Summary Elastic seismic inversion is a tool frequently used in analysis of seismic data. Elastic inversion relies on a simplified seismic model and generally produces 3D cubes for compressional-wave velocity, shear-wave velocity, and density. By applying rock-physics theory, such volumes may be interpreted in terms of lithology and fluid properties. Understanding the robustness of forward and inverse techniques is important when deciding the amount of information carried by seismic data. This paper suggests a simple method to update a reservoir characterization by comparing 4D-seismic data with flow simulations on an existing characterization conditioned on the base-survey data. The ability to use results from a 4D-seismic survey in reservoir characterization depends on several aspects. To investigate this, a loop that performs independent forward seismic modeling and elastic inversion at two time stages has been established. In the workflow, a synthetic reservoir is generated from which data are extracted. The task is to reconstruct the reservoir on the basis of these data. By working on a realistic synthetic reservoir, full knowledge of the reservoir characteristics is achieved. This makes the evaluation of the questions regarding the fundamental dependency between the seismic and petrophysical domains stronger. The synthetic reservoir is an ideal case, where properties are known to an accuracy never achieved in an applied situation. It can therefore be used to investigate the theoretical limitations of the information content in the seismic data. The deviations in water and oil production between the reference and predicted reservoir were significantly decreased by use of 4D-seismic data in addition to the 3D inverted elastic parameters. Introduction It is well known that the information in seismic data is limited by the bandwidth of the seismic signal. 4D seismics give information on the changes between base and monitor surveys and are consequently an important source of information regarding the principal flow in a reservoir. Because of its limited resolution, the presence of a thin thief zone can be observed only as a consequence of flow, and the exact location will not be found directly. This paper addresses the question of how much information there is in the seismic data, and how this information can be used to update the model for petrophysical reservoir parameters. Several methods for incorporating 4D-seismic data in the reservoir-characterization workflow for improving history matching have been proposed earlier. The 4D-seismic data and the corresponding production data are not on the same scale, but they need to be combined. Huang et al. (1997) proposed a simulated annealing method for conditioning these data, while Lumley and Behrens (1997) describe a workflow loop in which the 4D-seismic data are compared with those computed from the reservoir model. Gosselin et al. (2003) give a short overview of the use of 4D-seismic data in reservoir characterization and propose using gradient-based methods for history matching the reservoir model on seismic and production data. Vasco et al. (2004) show that 4D data contain information of large-scale reservoir-permeability variations, and they illustrate this in a Gulf of Mexico example.

Time-lapse seismic history matching with an iterative ensemble smoother and deep convolutional autoencoder

Geophysics ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 85 (1) ◽  
pp. M15-M31 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mingliang Liu ◽  
Dario Grana
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Seismic Data ◽  
History Matching ◽  
Time Lapse ◽  
Production Data ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Reservoir Models ◽  
Ensemble Smoother ◽  
Convolutional Autoencoder ◽  
Seismic Measurements

We have developed a time-lapse seismic history matching framework to assimilate production data and time-lapse seismic data for the prediction of static reservoir models. An iterative data assimilation method, the ensemble smoother with multiple data assimilation is adopted to iteratively update an ensemble of reservoir models until their predicted observations match the actual production and seismic measurements and to quantify the model uncertainty of the posterior reservoir models. To address computational and numerical challenges when applying ensemble-based optimization methods on large seismic data volumes, we develop a deep representation learning method, namely, the deep convolutional autoencoder. Such a method is used to reduce the data dimensionality by sparsely and approximately representing the seismic data with a set of hidden features to capture the nonlinear and spatial correlations in the data space. Instead of using the entire seismic data set, which would require an extremely large number of models, the ensemble of reservoir models is iteratively updated by conditioning the reservoir realizations on the production data and the low-dimensional hidden features extracted from the seismic measurements. We test our methodology on two synthetic data sets: a simplified 2D reservoir used for method validation and a 3D application with multiple channelized reservoirs. The results indicate that the deep convolutional autoencoder is extremely efficient in sparsely representing the seismic data and that the reservoir models can be accurately updated according to production data and the reparameterized time-lapse seismic data.

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