Data-Driven Characterization of Shale Reservoirs Towards Facilitation of Production Performance Evaluation
Abstract Leveraging publicly available data is a crucial stepfor decision making around investing in the development of any new unconventional asset.Published reports of production performance along with accurate petrophysical and geological characterization of the areashelp operators to evaluate the economics and risk profiles of the new opportunities. A data-driven workflow can facilitate this process and make it less biased by enabling the agnostic analysis of the data as the first step. In this work, several machine learning algorithms are briefly explained and compared in terms of their application in the development of a production evaluation tool for a targetreservoir. Random forest, selected after evaluating several models, is deployed as a predictive model thatincorporates geological characterization and petrophysical data along with production metricsinto the production performance assessment workflow. Considering the influence of the completion design parameters on the well production performance, this workflow also facilitates evaluation of several completion strategies toimprove decision making around the best-performing completion size. Data used in this study include petrophysical parameters collected from publicly available core data, completion and production metrics, and the geological characteristics of theNiobrara formation in the Powder River Basin. Historical periodic production data are used as indicators of the productivity in a certain area in the data-driven model. This model, after training and evaluation, is deployed to predict the productivity of non-producing regions within the area of interest to help with selecting the most prolific sections for drilling the future wells. Tornado plots are provided to demonstrate the key performance driversin each focused area. A supervised fuzzy clustering model is also utilized to automate the rock quality analyses for identifying the "sweet spots" in a reservoir. The output of this model is a sweet-spot map that is generated through evaluating multiple reservoir rock properties spatially. This map assists with combining all different reservoir rock properties into a single exhibition that indicates the average "reservoir quality"of the formation in different areas. Niobrara shale is used as a case study in this work to demonstrate how the proposed workflow is applied on a selected reservoir formation whit enough historical production data available.