An Integrated Workflow for Quantifying the Impact of Geological Uncertainty and Modelling Decisions On STOIIP Estimates and History Matching - A Case Study from the Middle East

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohamed AlBreiki ◽  
Saeeda AlAmeri ◽  
Sebastian Geiger ◽  
Patrick Corbett
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
History Matching ◽  
Geological Uncertainty ◽  
The Impact

Will New Blood in the Leadership Produce New Blood on the Battlefield? The Impact of Regime Changes on Middle East Military Rivalries

2004 ◽  
Vol 58 (4) ◽  
pp. 612-635 ◽  
Author(s):  
John A. Tures
Keyword(s):  
Cold War ◽  
Middle East ◽  
International Conflict ◽  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Time Frame ◽  
Regime Changes ◽  
History Of ◽  
The Cold War ◽  
The Impact

The Middle East has witnessed a recent spate of alterations in rulers and regimes. These new leaders are coming to power in countries having a history of international conflict with other states in the region. Will the change in government exacerbate interstate crises, producing disputes and wars? Or will the nascent leadership steer their countries to peace, choosing instead to focus on an internal consolidation of power? To answer this question, this article examines the theories of foreign policy behavior of new leaders. It discusses the results of a quantitative analysis of an earlier time frame: the initial years of the Cold War. The article then conducts a series of case study analyses of contemporary times to determine if the theory and prior statistical tests remain valid. The results show that new administrations are more likely to target rivals with a threat, display, or limited use of force. Such incoming leaders, however, seem reluctant to drag their countries into a full-scale war. These findings hold for a variety of countries in a number of different contexts. Such results are relevant for Middle East scholars, conflict mediators, as well as American foreign policymakers who seem to have adopted a taste for regime change in the region.

scholarly journals Impact of modelling decisions and rock typing schemes on oil in place estimates in a giant carbonate reservoir in the Middle East

2021 ◽  
pp. petgeo2021-028
Author(s):  
Mohamed AlBreiki ◽  
Sebastian Geiger ◽  
Patrick Corbett
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
Detailed Analysis ◽  
History Matching ◽  
Carbonate Reservoir ◽  
Reservoir Rock ◽  
Base Case ◽  
Single Base ◽  
Rock Typing ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Compare And Contrast

We demonstrate how modelling decisions for a giant carbonate reservoir with a thick transition zone in the Middle East, most notably the approach to reservoir rock typing and modelling the initial fluid saturations, impact the hydrocarbon distributions and oil-in-place estimates in the reservoir. Rather than anchoring our model around a single base case with an upside and downside, we apply a comprehensive 3D multiple deterministic scenario workflow to compare-and-contrast how modelling decisions and geological uncertainties influence the volumetric estimates. We carry out a detailed analysis which shows that the variations in STOIIP estimates can be as high as 28% depending on the preferred modelling decision, which could potentially mask the impact of other geological uncertainties. These models were validated through repeated and randomised blind tests. We hence present a quantitative approach that helps us to assess if the static models are consistent in terms of the integration of geological and petrophysical data. Ultimately, the decision which of the different modelling options should be applied does not only influence STOIIP estimates, but also subsequent history matching & forecasts.

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