Take or Pay Obligation in Long Term Gas Contract: Risk Mitigation Options for Off-taker

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ovunda Green ◽  
Omowumi Iledare
Author(s):  
Michelle L. Sorensen

The 22″ Alberta Oilsands Pipeline transports synthetic crude oil from Syncrude Canada Limited in Fort McMurray to Edmonton, Alberta. The pipeline crosses the House River approximately 100 kilometers south of Fort McMurray. The slope has been monitored since 1991 by three slope indicators. A finite element stress analysis indicated that total ground movement since installation in 1977 could correspond to pipeline compressive strains in excess of 0.32%, a level of risk unacceptable to the pipeline owner. A probability-based model was developed to determine cost and benefit of risk mitigation options. Parameters such as soil movement and pipe strain were input as probability distributions. The mitigation options included: reduce slope instability; reduce pipe stress; reduce pipe-to-soil interaction; implement long term monitoring; determine current pipe strain level (to decrease data uncertainty); do nothing. A Monte Carlo simulation was used to establish probability of failure and probable cost distributions for each option. The results were presented as a combined cost of failure and mitigation over 10 years. The analysis indicated that the optimum solution was to remove the existing soil traction loading on the pipe and mitigate long-term slope movement. The decision was made to relieve the pipe strain by excavating. Current pipe strain was measured in situ using residual strain measurement. Long term strain gauges were installed. Slope mitigation was deferred until the strain gauges indicate total pipeline strain levels approaching 0.32%.


2017 ◽  
Vol 24 (3) ◽  
pp. 106-114 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mikołaj Miśkiewicz ◽  
Oskar Mitrosz ◽  
Tadeusz Brzozowski

Abstract Appropriate risk assessment plays a fundamental role in the design. . The authors propose a possible method of design risk mitigation, which follows recommendations included in Eurocode 7. The so-called “Observational Method” (OM) can produce savings in costs and programmes on engineering projects without compromising safety. The case study presented is a complex design solution that deals with the heavy foundations of a gantry crane beam as one of the elements of a Deepwater Container Terminal extension. The paper presents a detailed process of the design of the rear crane beam being a part of the brand new berth, together with its static analysis, as well as the long-term results of observations, which have revealed the real performance of the marine structure. The case presented is based on excessive preliminary field tests and technical monitoring of the structure, and is an example of a successful OM implementation and design risk mitigation.


2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 208-223
Author(s):  
Johanna Caldwell ◽  
Ashleigh Delaye ◽  
Tonino Esposito ◽  
Tara Petti ◽  
Tara Black ◽  
...  

In many North American jurisdictions, socioeconomically vulnerable families are more likely to be involved with child protection systems and experience ongoing challenges. The current public health response to the COVID-19 pandemic is having a disproportionate impact on these families via unemployment, “essential” work, isolation, and closures of childcare and schools, with negative implications for children’s developmental wellbeing. Experts warn that while child protection referrals have gone down, children who are at risk of maltreatment are less exposed to typical reporters (e.g., school professionals). At the same time, physical distancing measures are prompting many human service settings to shift toward virtual intervention with children and families. In this commentary, we suggest that a focus on short-term risk in the response to COVID-19 may obscure support for children’s long-term outcomes. We propose two policy considerations: (1) in the immediate term, that child protection workers be deemed “essential”; and (2) in the longer term, that permanent, universal basic income guarantees be implemented to support a baseline of predictability both in families’ material wellbeing and in fiscal budgets in the case of a future crisis. As we write, it is impossible to predict the longevity of these closures nor the extent of their impact on children and families. However, the present article mirrors commentary following previous crises noting the importance of going beyond immediate health risk mitigation to consider wellbeing with regard to children’s development and families’ socioeconomic needs in the long term.


2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fabio Sai ◽  
Lydia Cumiskey ◽  
Albrecht Weerts ◽  
Biswa Bhattacharya ◽  
Raihanul Haque Khan

Abstract. Impact-based forecasting and warning services aim to bridge the gap between producers and users of warning information by connecting and increasing synergies between the components of effective early warning systems. We tested qualitatively whether a warning message based on colour codes is understandable and useful to trigger risk mitigation actions at the local level in the flood-exposed communities of Rajapur and Ghorjan unions in Sirajganj district, Bangladesh. With a community-based approach for different groups of users (i.e. sectors), flood-impact scenarios were determined from past events and related to colour codes. These were developed into impact-based forecasting and warnings that can connect water levels, through the colour code, to localised guidance information tailored to sectors’ needs on how to respond to the expected flood. This approach was tested through a limited number of focus group discussions and interviews at the community level. Overall, the colour coded impact-based warnings were found to be an easy and understandable way to link water level forecasts to the necessary risk mitigation actions, however, further investigation is needed to validate these findings under real-time conditions. IBFW has huge potential in Bangladesh but its integration requires significant institutional changes, such as an inter-facing agency (long term) or team (short term), adjusted policy frameworks (standing orders on disasters), and new resource allocations for skills development and technological innovation from national to local levels. Overall, this paper aims to offer a first insight into impact-based forecasting and warning services in Bangladesh to trigger further research and project developments.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matt Wandstrat ◽  
◽  
Gerard Simms ◽  
Femi Adegbola ◽  
Steve Smith ◽  
...  

The objective of this paper is to provide a context for strategic use of fluid sampling while drilling (FSWD) in the deep-water environment. Our work is based on data collected from Gulf of Mexico wells over the last 7 years and we incorporate both operator and service company experience. In this paper we review the current FSWD technology and the quality of the fluid samples. We provide practical guidelines for executing the FSWD operation and review types of wells where FSWD has been most effective. We also discuss the role FSWD plays in the business of efficient well construction (drilling, evaluating, and completing). Strategic use of FSWD can provide time savings and operational risk mitigation. FSWD has proven to provide high quality data and fluid samples, however, an awareness of the differences between conventional fluid sampling (wireline) and sampling while-drilling is important for maximizing benefits. Additionally, long term strategic commitment to FSWD is likely to provide the largest benefits to operators. FSWD has been around for about 10 years, but how, and where, to apply the technology has not been clear to many operators. The broader industry can benefit by learning from experiences accumulated through consistent and extensive FSWD use in deep-water wells showing how the technology has progressed, and how it is used to achieve business benefits.


Author(s):  
Bernardo Ivo-Cruz ◽  
Sónia Ribeiro

The 2030 Agenda is comprehensive, universal, and ambitious. To reach its goals, the world needs to invest US$5 to 7 trillion/year. To finance it, the private sector must be involved. This chapter considers the motivations of business and corporations to incorporate the SDG in their investment agenda and the role DFIs can play in providing financing to their projects. It acknowledges that the private sector is a key element for long-term sustainable development and highlights the difficulties of DFI in assessing impact in risk analysis and therefore financing private investments for sustainable development. Finally, it finds that the international community and developing countries need to work together to improve the business environment on those countries, and concludes that the international community and the banking system do not know how to assess the role and impact of business and corporations projects in the agenda, and that the risk mitigation policy does not consider the nature of DFIs. Looking into the future, the authors present future research topics needed on this subject.


Author(s):  
Raj V. Amonkar

In a supply chain network, facilities are the primary components where a product is manufactured or stored. During the phase of design of a supply chain network, a company decides how to configure the supply chain over the next several years. Key driver of supply chain performance in terms of responsiveness and efficiency will be taken into consideration in the decision process and the decisions include the role assigned to each facility, its capacity to perform the assigned role, the number and location of the facilities. Since supply chain design decisions pertaining to facilities are typically made for the long term and are very expensive to alter on short notice, the decisions must take into account uncertainty in anticipated market conditions over the next few years. Decisions regarding facilities are therefore a crucial part of supply chain design. This chapter explains the practical application of theories, concepts and frameworks in the area of Supply Chain Design, Risk Mitigation and Social Networks. The practical application is based on a case study of ABC, one of the world's leading agribusiness companies with global operations that made a successful foray in emerging markets facilitated by sound decisions pertaining to the design of its global supply chain network. Certain names and other identifying information were disguised to protect confidentiality.


Author(s):  
Domagoj Vulin ◽  
Maja Arnaut ◽  
Lucija Jukić ◽  
Daria Karasalihović Sedlar

European Trading Scheme should encourage the idea of CO2 utilization and/or underground storage. Despite the large estimates of CO2 storage capacities, cost-effective storage has not been performed in the EU. As EU ETS went through several phases and is tested to the level that it can be called mature, the trends of CO2 allowance market prices can be analyzed. CO2 reduction can be achieved by simultaneous injection for CO2 Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) commercially, which is proved outside the EU. The technology is well developed as a part of the oil and gas business, and the mover for implementing such technologies might be CO2 allowance price. As investments in those technologies are long-term and extremely capital intensive, this chapter discussed CO2 utilization and storage in the context of EU ETS. Additionally, the chapter presented statistical analysis that helps long-term CO2 price understanding; the connection of CO2 price with oil, gas, and electricity price; and guidelines for risk mitigation in assessing the feasibility of applying CO2 utilization and storage (CUS) technologies.


Author(s):  
Cong Dinh Nguyen ◽  
Fumikazu Ubukata ◽  
Quang Tan Nguyen ◽  
Hoang Ha Vo

AbstractLocal actors appear as inseparable components of the integrated flood risk mitigation strategy in Vietnam. Recognizing this fact, this study examined the long-term improvement in precautions taken by commune authorities and households between two major floods in 1999 and 2017 by applying both quantitative and qualitative methods. Two flood-prone villages were selected for a survey; one in a rural area and the other in a suburban area of Thua Thien Hue Province, central Vietnam. The findings indicate that most villagers doubted the structural works’ efficacy and were dissatisfied with the current efforts of local authorities. Households’ self-preparation thus became the decisive factor in mitigating risk. While most households have paid greater attention to flood precautions in 2017, others seem to be lagging. Poverty-related barriers were the root causes restraining households in both rural and suburban villages. The suburban riverine residents were further identified as vulnerable by their limitations in upgrading structural measures, which was ascribed to the inconsistency in the ancient town’s preservation policy. This multidimensional comparison, in terms of vulnerability, emphasized the importance of space-function links in the suburb and the contradictions of different policy initiatives, such as landscape rehabilitation, disaster prevention, and livelihood maintenance.


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