Probabilistic Forecasting and Model Validation for the First-Eocene Large-Scale Pilot Steamflood, Partitioned Zone, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait

2013 ◽  
Vol 16 (01) ◽  
pp. 97-116 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. Terry Osterloh ◽  
Don S. Mims ◽  
W. Scott Meddaugh
Keyword(s):  
Oil Recovery ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Probabilistic Methods ◽  
Probabilistic Forecasting ◽  
Resource Base ◽  
Heterogeneous Reservoir ◽  
Expected Performance ◽  
Probabilistic Forecasts ◽  
Facilities Design ◽  
Early Decision

Summary The First-Eocene heavy-oil reservoir (1E) in the Wafra field is a candidate for steamflooding because of its world-class resource base and low-estimated primary recovery. However, industry has little experience in steamflooding carbonate reservoirs, which has prompted the staging of several 1E steamflooding tests, the latest of which is the large-scale pilot (LSP) started in 2009. To assist in facilities design, to help understand expected performance in a very heterogeneous reservoir, and to provide input to early-decision analyses, numerical thermal simulation was used to generate probabilistic forecasts. When adequate pilot history was available, the model was validated with probabilistic methods. The LSP model contained 1.5 million cells, which allowed the maintenance of adequate resolution and proper boundary conditions in the pilot area. Parallel computation enabled a probabilistic workflow to be implemented with this large thermal model. In this paper, we highlight the methodologies and inputs used to generate the probabilistic forecasts and validate the model. Major results of this work include the following: In contrast to many greenfield forecasts, the LSP forecasts were conservative, likely because of the unique aspects of the forecasting methodology, proper selection of uncertainty ranges, and the relatively high density of input data for model construction; wide variations in production metrics were forecast, indicative of a highly heterogeneous reservoir; results indicated that the validated model adequately captured the global or statistical pilot heterogeneity, enabling proper capture of steamflood flow/drainage mechanisms; and despite this heterogeneity, forecast oil-recovery levels were comparable with those observed in steamfloods in sandstone reservoirs.

scholarly journals Probabilistic forecasting of replication studies

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samuel Pawel ◽  
Leonhard Held
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Predictive Performance ◽  
R Package ◽  
Effect Estimate ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Probabilistic Forecasting ◽  
Questionable Research Practices ◽  
Replication Studies ◽  
Probabilistic Forecasts

Throughout the last decade, the so-called replication crisis has stimulated many researchers to conduct large-scale replication projects. With data from four of these projects, we computed probabilistic forecasts of the replication outcomes, which we then evaluated regarding discrimination, calibration and sharpness. A novel model, which can take into account both inflation and heterogeneity of effects, was used and predicted the effect estimate of the replication study with good performance in two of the four data sets. In the other two data sets, predictive performance was still substantially improved compared to the naive model which does not consider inflation and heterogeneity of effects. The results suggest that many of the estimates from the original studies were inflated, possibly caused by publication bias or questionable research practices, and also that some degree of heterogeneity between original and replication effects should be expected. Moreover, the results indicate that the use of statistical significance as the only criterion for replication success may be questionable, since from a predictive viewpoint, non-significant replication results are often compatible with significant results from the original study. The developed statistical methods as well as the data sets are available in the R package ReplicationSuccess.

scholarly journals The Effect of Surfactant Polymer Concentration on the Distribution of Oil Drainage Area in Heterogeneous Reservoir

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 634-643
Author(s):  
Suranto Suranto ◽  
Ratna Widyaningsih ◽  
M. Anggitho Huda
Keyword(s):  
Oil Recovery ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Polymer Concentration ◽  
Oil Field ◽  
Oil Fields ◽  
Polymer Injection ◽  
Heterogeneous Reservoir ◽  
Reservoir Models ◽  
Left Corner ◽  
Polymer Surfactant

The use of chemical injection has been widely used in the oil field on a large scale. One of the enhanced oil recovery (EOR) methods to increase production from old oil fields is through polymer surfactant injection, which functions to reduce interfacial tension and water-oil mobility ratio. This study focuses on developing a simulation model for chemical injection of polymer surfactant reservoirs by hypothetically making heterogeneous reservoir models in each layer with dimensions of 10x10x4. It consists of one a vertical well which is producer well located at the top of the left corner and one an injection well which is located at the bottom of right corner. This study shows a comparison between surfactant injection, polymer injection and SP injection using the same surfactant and polymer concentration with a concentration of 1000 ppm with 0.3 PV. Oil recovery in polymer injection turned out to be quite high compared to other chemical injections. In polymer injection, the oil recovery was 4.17%. Meanwhile, surfactant injection and SP injection increased by 0.59% and 0.61, respectively.

LARGE-SCALE SIMULATION OF OIL RECOVERY BY SURFACTANT-POLYMER FLOODING

2016 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 12-31 ◽  
Author(s):  
D.Zh. Akhmed-Zaki ◽  
T.S. Imankulov ◽  
B. Matkerim ◽  
B.S. Daribayev ◽  
K.A. Aidarov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Oil Recovery ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Polymer Flooding ◽  
Large Scale Simulation

Financial and Economic Support of Innovation Processes in the Russian Fuel and Energy Complex

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 77-85
Author(s):  
L. D. Kapranova ◽  
T. V. Pogodina
Keyword(s):  
Oil Recovery ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
New Technologies ◽  
Innovative Development ◽  
Oil Reserves ◽  
Energy Complex ◽  
Innovation Activities ◽  
Substantial Investment ◽  
The Government

The subject of the research is the current state of the fuel and energy complex (FEC) that ensures generation of a significant part of the budget and the innovative development of the economy.The purpose of the research was to establish priority directions for the development of the FEC sectors based on a comprehensive analysis of their innovative and investment activities. The dynamics of investment in the fuel and energy sector are considered. It is noted that large-scale modernization of the fuel and energy complex requires substantial investment and support from the government. The results of the government programs of corporate innovative development are analyzed. The results of the research identified innovative development priorities in the power, oil, gas and coal sectors of the fuel and energy complex. The most promising areas of innovative development in the oil and gas sector are the technologies of enhanced oil recovery; the development of hard-to-recover oil reserves; the production of liquefied natural gas and its transportation. In the power sector, the prospective areas are activities aimed at improving the performance reliability of the national energy systems and the introduction of digital technologies. Based on the research findings, it is concluded that the innovation activities in the fuel and energy complex primarily include the development of new technologies, modernization of the FEC technical base; adoption of state-of-the-art methods of coal mining and oil recovery; creating favorable economic conditions for industrial extraction of hard-to-recover reserves; transition to carbon-free fuel sources and energy carriers that can reduce energy consumption and cost as well as reducing the negative FEC impact on the environment.

ASSESSMENT OF OIL WELL PRODUCTIVITY IN LOW-PERMEABILITY RESERVOIRS IN THE FIELDS OF EASTERN SIBERIA

2017 ◽  
pp. 30-36
Author(s):  
R. V. Urvantsev ◽  
S. E. Cheban
Keyword(s):  
Oil Recovery ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Oil Extraction ◽  
Low Permeability ◽  
Oil Well ◽  
Eastern Siberia ◽  
Development Costs ◽  
Traditional Fields ◽  
Low Permeability Reservoirs

The 21st century witnessed the development of the oil extraction industry in Russia due to the intensifica- tion of its production at the existing traditional fields of Western Siberia, the Volga region and other oil-extracting regions, and due discovering new oil and gas provinces. At that time the path to the development of fields in Eastern Siberia was already paved. The large-scale discoveries of a number of fields made here in the 70s-80s of the 20th century are only being developed now. The process of development itself is rather slow in view of a number of reasons. Create a problem of high cost value of oil extraction in the region. One of the major tasks is obtaining the maximum oil recovery factor while reducing the development costs. The carbonate layer lying within the Katangsky suite is low-permeability, and its inventories are categorised as hard to recover. Now, the object is at a stage of trial development,which foregrounds researches on selecting the effective methods of oil extraction.

Bauherrenseitiges Projektkostencontrolling bei Großprojekten unter Verwendung probabilistischer Methoden/Guideline for project cost control for large-scale projects using probabilistic methods

Bauingenieur ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 93 (09) ◽  
pp. 355-364
Author(s):  
F. Gschösser ◽  
P. Sander ◽  
P. Lintner ◽  
A. Tautschnig ◽  
M. Entacher
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Cost Control ◽  
Probabilistic Methods ◽  
Project Cost

Der vorliegende Beitrag beschäftigt sich mit bauherrenseitigem Projektkostencontrolling (PKC) bei Großbauprojekten unter Zuhilfenahme probabilistischer Methoden. Das dargestellte PKC-Konzept ermöglicht robuste Gesamtkostenprognosen und eine kontinuierliche Überwachung des Projektbudgets während der Planungs- und Ausführungsphase. Das Konzept basiert auf der in der ÖGG-Richtlinie Kostenermittlung für Projekte der Verkehrsinfrastruktur vorgegebenen Gliederung der Gesamtkosten, welche für die zusätzliche Anwendung in der Ausführungsphase fortgeschrieben wird. Um Unschärfen in der Kostenprognose mit ausreichendem Informationsgehalt zu berücksichtigen, wird das PKC-System mit aktuellen probabilistischen Methoden der Kosten- und Risikoanalyse verknüpft.   Basierend auf den Erkenntnissen aus der praktischen Anwendung des erarbeiteten PKC-Konzepts wurde ein Leitfaden zur Gewinnung sowie zur zyklischen Aktualisierung von relevanten PKC-Daten erarbeitet. Die Anwendung des entwickelten Leitfadens wird anhand eines Beispielprojekts unter Zuhilfenahme der Kostencontrolling-Software RIAAT demonstriert.   Die Erfahrungen aus der Anwendung des PKC-Konzepts und des Leitfadens zeigen den Mehrwert der Berücksichtigung von Kosten für Risiken und Marktentwicklungen in Sinne einer robusten Gesamtkostenprognose sowie Budgetpolitik. Die Anwendung von probabilistischen Methoden zur Berücksichtigung von Unschärfen erhöht die Aussagekraft der ermittelten Ergebnisse. Die detaillierten Ausführungen sowie die klaren Abgrenzungen der Verantwortlichkeiten, welche der Leitfaden vorgibt, helfen Fehler zu vermeiden sowie die Durchführung des Projektkostencontrollings effektiver zu gestalten.

scholarly journals Nepal: Food Security, a Localized Institutional Irrigation Perspective on Public Irrigation Systems

2012 ◽  
pp. 95-99 ◽  
Author(s):  
Upendra Gautam
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Irrigation System ◽  
Irrigation Management ◽  
Institutional Development ◽  
Resource Base ◽  
Irrigation Systems ◽  
Irrigated Area ◽  
Social Insecurity ◽  
The Government ◽  
Agriculture Extension

Oriental philosophers have given top priority to food for orderly state affairs as well as personal wellbeing. In past, Nepal had a strong agricultural economy based on indigenous Farmer Managed Irrigation System (FMIS). State policy helped promote these systems. But contemporary Nepal opted for state control on irrigation water by building large scale public irrigation systems. In the last 43 years of planned development (1957-2002), the government has spent 70% of US$1.3 billion on these systems, covering 30% of the irrigated area in the country; the remaining 70% is with the FMIS. Despite the investment, these systems neither promoted themselves as an enterprise nor helped enhance agricultural productivity leading to social insecurity. This social insecurity is reflected in the country's increasing import of food, mass workforce exodus for employment abroad, and added socio-economic vulnerability due to climate change.Donor and government recommendations centered on (i) expansion of irrigated area, (ii) irrigation management transfer, and (iii) agriculture extension seem to have failed in Nepal. These failures asked for alternative institutional development solutions, whereas public irrigation systems are (i) localized to establish system's operational autonomy with ownership and governance, (ii) treated as a rich resource-base with water, land and labor, and (iii) recognized as cooperative enterprise of local stakeholders by law with authorities to enter into joint actions with relevant partners for promoting commercialization and environmental quality of irrigated agriculture.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/hn.v11i1.7223 Hydro Nepal Special Issue: Conference Proceedings 2012 pp.95-99

scholarly journals Verification of Ensemble-Based Uncertainty Circles around Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasts

2011 ◽  
Vol 26 (5) ◽  
pp. 664-676 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thierry Dupont ◽  
Matthieu Plu ◽  
Philippe Caroff ◽  
Ghislain Faure
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Large Error ◽  
Ensemble Prediction ◽  
Probabilistic Forecasting ◽  
Cyclone Track ◽  
Ensemble Prediction System ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Probabilistic Forecasts ◽  
Medium Range ◽  
Uncertainty Information

Abstract Several tropical cyclone forecasting centers issue uncertainty information with regard to their official track forecasts, generally using the climatological distribution of position error. However, such methods are not able to convey information that depends on the situation. The purpose of the present study is to assess the skill of the Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) at measuring the uncertainty of up to 3-day track forecasts issued by the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) La Réunion in the southwestern Indian Ocean. The dispersion of cyclone positions in the EPS is extracted and translated at the RSMC forecast position. The verification relies on existing methods for probabilistic forecasts that are presently adapted to a cyclone-position metric. First, the probability distribution of forecast positions is compared to the climatological distribution using Brier scores. The probabilistic forecasts have better scores than the climatology, particularly after applying a simple calibration scheme. Second, uncertainty circles are built by fixing the probability at 75%. Their skill at detecting small and large error values is assessed. The circles have some skill for large errors up to the 3-day forecast (and maybe after); but the detection of small radii is skillful only up to 2-day forecasts. The applied methodology may be used to assess and to compare the skill of different probabilistic forecasting systems of cyclone position.

scholarly journals The Analysis for the Effect of Effective Compressibility on Oil Recovery in Polymer Flooded Heterogeneous Reservoir

2014 ◽  
Vol 47 (3) ◽  
pp. 247-254
Author(s):  
Soohyun Baek ◽  
Woodong Jung ◽  
Wonmo Sung ◽  
Junwoo Seo
Keyword(s):  
Oil Recovery ◽  
Heterogeneous Reservoir
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