Statistical analysis of the volcanic eruption frequency in the azores islands : a contribution to risk assessment

2005 ◽  
Vol 176 (1) ◽  
pp. 107-120 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guy Caniaux
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Statistical Analysis ◽  
Poisson Distribution ◽  
Volcanic Eruption ◽  
Eruption Frequency ◽  
Azores Islands ◽  
Active Volcanoes

Abstract The datations of the last eruptive events which have occurred on 13 active volcanic complexes of the Azores are presented. By supposing that these events follow a statistical Poisson distribution, we estimate the occurrence period of these events, as well as the eruption probabilities for the next 300 years. Pico Mountain, Região dos Picos (São Miguel Island), the stratovolcano of Sete Cidades (São Miguel Island), the linear volcanic complexes of São Roque – Piedade (Pico Island) and of Capelo (Faial Island) must be considered as the most active volcanoes of the archipelago. The eruption styles of next eruptions are also specified.

Risk assessment of additional financial costs on the example of implementation of projects of the rocket space industry

2021 ◽  
pp. 77-84
Author(s):  
Е.В. Докукина ◽  
Е.В. Парфенова
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Life Cycle ◽  
Statistical Analysis ◽  
Economic Indicators ◽  
Early Stages ◽  
Space Industry ◽  
Financial Costs ◽  
Additional Costs ◽  
Technical And Economic Indicators

В работе исследуется один из возможных метод оценки риска дополнительных финансовых незапланированных затрат в рамках реализации проектов ракетно-космической отрасли, поскольку по различным причинам они не учитывались при определении технико-экономических показателей реализуемого перспективного проекта. Следовательно, предлагаемый метод позволяет на ранних стадиях проведения исследований оценить дополнительные затраты и учесть их влияние на конечные технико-экономические показатели перспективного проекта. Метод строится на основе статистического анализа затрат по этапам жизненного цикла и по проекту в целом. По итогам исследования сделан вывод о том, что риск дополнительных финансовых затрат может снизить эффективность проекта в полтора - три раза. The paper explores one of the possible methods for assessing the risk of additional unplanned costs for the implementation of a promising project. Under additional means costs that for some reason were not planned when determining the technical and economic indicators of the prospective project being implemented. The proposed method allows for the early stages of research to assess the additional costs and take into account their impact on the final technical and economic indicators of a promising project. The method is based on a statistical analysis of costs for the stages of the life cycle and for the project as a whole. The study concluded that the risk of additional costs may reduce the effectiveness of the project in one and a half to three times.

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