scholarly journals Multi–risk quantitative assessment in Reghin city, Transylvania, Romania

2019 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 45-58
Author(s):  
Sanda ROȘCA ◽  
Ștefan BILAȘCO ◽  
Iuliu VESCAN ◽  
Ioan FODOREAN ◽  
Dănuț PETREA ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Analysis ◽  
Cumulative Risk ◽  
Precise Determination ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Integrated Analysis ◽  
Equal Weight ◽  
Cumulative Impact ◽  
Landslide Occurrence ◽  
The Government ◽  
Risk Processes

Multi–risk assessment supposes an integrated analysis of various processes and phenomena generating risks across the territory, highlighting the individual and cumulative impact at different levels of analysis. This paper aims at creating an assessment model of multi–risk generated by the cumulative effects of landslides and floods, processes considered as significant in the study area, the administrative unit of the city of Reghin in the Transylvanian Basin. To obtain the multi–risk, two GIS spatial analysis models have been created. The first model means to identify the probability of landslide occurrence (built on GIS databases in vector and raster format, correlatively analysed by means of spatial analysis functions and equations), and is adapted according to legislative regulations stipulated in the Government Decision no. 447/2003. The second one is a database regarding the floodable area with a 1% probability in raster format, resulted from a nation–wide model created to identify the flooded areas.The multi–risk map was created using the mediation method, in which every class of individual (geomorphological or hydrological) hazard receives equal weight within the final result. As a consequence of applying the above–mentioned models, we obtained areas with different probabilities for cumulative risk processes, which are rendered as favourable or restrictive in terms of locating different structures (roads, settlements, functional areas, shopping centres). According to the degree of validation, these may be used for a more precise determination of the development areas and for territorial planning.

scholarly journals A susceptibility-based rainfall threshold approach for landslide occurrence

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
pp. 775-789 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elise Monsieurs ◽  
Olivier Dewitte ◽  
Alain Demoulin
Keyword(s):  
Landslide Susceptibility ◽  
Rainfall Threshold ◽  
Exceedance Probability ◽  
Equal Weight ◽  
Antecedent Rainfall ◽  
Rainfall Thresholds ◽  
Landslide Occurrence ◽  
Continental Scale ◽  
Satellite Rainfall ◽  
Rainfall Estimates

Abstract. Rainfall threshold determination is a pressing issue in the landslide scientific community. While major improvements have been made towards more reproducible techniques for the identification of triggering conditions for landsliding, the now well-established rainfall intensity or event-duration thresholds for landsliding suffer from several limitations. Here, we propose a new approach of the frequentist method for threshold definition based on satellite-derived antecedent rainfall estimates directly coupled with landslide susceptibility data. Adopting a bootstrap statistical technique for the identification of threshold uncertainties at different exceedance probability levels, it results in thresholds expressed as AR = (α±Δα)⋅S(β±Δβ), where AR is antecedent rainfall (mm), S is landslide susceptibility, α and β are scaling parameters, and Δα and Δβ are their uncertainties. The main improvements of this approach consist in (1) using spatially continuous satellite rainfall data, (2) giving equal weight to rainfall characteristics and ground susceptibility factors in the definition of spatially varying rainfall thresholds, (3) proposing an exponential antecedent rainfall function that involves past daily rainfall in the exponent to account for the different lasting effect of large versus small rainfall, (4) quantitatively exploiting the lower parts of the cloud of data points, most meaningful for threshold estimation, and (5) merging the uncertainty on landslide date with the fit uncertainty in a single error estimation. We apply our approach in the western branch of the East African Rift based on landslides that occurred between 2001 and 2018, satellite rainfall estimates from the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA 3B42 RT), and the continental-scale map of landslide susceptibility of Broeckx et al. (2018) and provide the first regional rainfall thresholds for landsliding in tropical Africa.

Using system dynamics to evaluate renewable electricity development in Malaysia

Kybernetes ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 43 (1) ◽  
pp. 24-39 ◽  
Author(s):  
Salman Ahmad ◽  
Razman bin Mat Tahar
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Capacity Expansion ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Flow Diagram ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Policy Targets

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to provide an assessment of Malaysia's renewable capacity target. Malaysia relies heavily on fossil fuels for electricity generation. To diversify the fuel-mix, a technology-specific target has been set by the government in 2010. Considering the complexity in generation expansion, there is a dire need for an assessment model that can evaluate policy in a feedback fashion. The study also aims to expand policy evaluation literature in electricity domain by taking a dynamic systems approach. Design/methodology/approach – System dynamics modelling and simulation approach is used in this study. The model variables, selected from literature, are constituted into casual loop diagram. Later, a stock and flow diagram is developed by integrating planning, construction, operation, and decision making sub-models. The dynamic interactions between the sub-sectors are analysed based on the short-, medium- and long-term policy targets. Findings – Annual capacity constructions fail to achieve short-, medium- and long-term targets. However, the difference in operational capacity and medium- and long-term target are small. In terms of technology, solar photovoltaic (PV) attains the highest level of capacity followed by biomass. Research limitations/implications – While financial calculations are crucial for capacity expansion decisions, currently they are not being modelled; this study primarily focuses on system delays and exogenous components only. Practical implications – A useful model that offers regulators and investors insights on system characteristics and policy targets simultaneously. Originality/value – This paper provides a model for evaluating policy for renewable capacity expansion development in a dynamic context, for Malaysia.

Sustainability assessment model for heritage buildings

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Abobakr Al-Sakkaf ◽  
Ashutosh Bagchi ◽  
Tarek Zayed ◽  
Sherif Mahmoud
Keyword(s):  
Case Studies ◽  
Rating Scale ◽  
Sustainability Assessment ◽  
Model Development ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Equal Weight ◽  
Indoor Environmental Quality ◽  
Regional Variations ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Heritage Buildings

PurposeThe purpose of this research is to focus on the evaluation of heritage buildings' sustainability. BIM modeling was necessary for the design of the sustainability assessment model for Heritage Buildings (SAHB). Using ArchiCAD®, energy simulations were performed for two case studies (Murabba Palace, Saudi Arabia, and Grey Nuns Building, Canada), and the developed model was validated through sensitivity analysis.Design/methodology/approachHeritage buildings (HBs) are unique and must be preserved for future generations. This article focuses on a sustainability assessment model and rating scale for heritage buildings in light of the need for their conservation. Regional variations were considered in the model development to identify critical attributes whose corresponding weights were then determined by fuzzy logic. Data was collected via questionnaires completed by Saudi Arabian and Canadian experts, and Fuzzy TOPSIS was also applied to eliminate the uncertainties present when human opinions are involved.FindingsResults showed that regional variations were sufficiently addressed through the multi-level weight consideration in the proposed model. Comparing the nine identified factors that affect the sustainability of HBs, energy and indoor environmental quality were of equal weight in both case studies.Originality/valueThis study will be helpful for the design of a globally applicable sustainability assessment model for HBs. It will also enable decision-makers to prepare maintenance plans for HBs.

An Early Multi-Criteria Risk Assessment Model

2019 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 51-64
Author(s):  
Priyanka Chandani ◽  
Chetna Gupta
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Software Development ◽  
Cumulative Risk ◽  
Requirement Engineering ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Risk Assessment Model ◽  
Software Projects ◽  
Development Life Cycle ◽  
Weighted Score ◽  
Development Phases

Accurate time and budget is an essential estimate for planning software projects correctly. Quite often, the software projects fall into unrealistic estimates and the core reason generally owes to problems with the requirement analysis. For investigating such problems, risk has to identified and assessed at the requirement engineering phase only so that defects do not seep down to other software development phases. This article proposes a multi-criteria risk assessment model to compute risk at a requirement level by computing cumulative risk score based on a weighted score assigned to each criterion. The result of comparison with other approaches and experimentation shows that using this model it is possible to predict the risk at the early phase of software development life cycle with high accuracy.

scholarly journals An Integrated Spatial Analysis Computer Environment for Urban-Building Energy in Cities

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 4235 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yu Sun ◽  
Elisabete Silva ◽  
Wei Tian ◽  
Ruchi Choudhary ◽  
Hong Leng
Keyword(s):  
Energy Efficiency ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Spatial Analysis ◽  
Building Energy ◽  
Energy Modeling ◽  
Integrated Analysis ◽  
Scale Efficiency ◽  
Building Energy Consumption ◽  
Multi Scale ◽  
Analysis Environment

In this paper, we developed a new integrated analysis environment in order to thoroughly analyses urban-building energy patterns, named IUBEA (integrated urban building energy analysis), which focuses on energy modeling and analysis of a city’s building stock to support district or city-scale efficiency programs. It is argued that cities and towns account for more than two-thirds of world energy consumption. Thus, this paper explores techniques to integrate a spatial analysis environment in the field of urban building energy assessment in cites to make full use of current spatial data relevant to urban-building energy consumption and energy efficiency policies. We illustrate how multi-scale sampling and analysis for energy consumption and simulate the energy-saving scenarios by taking as an example of Greater London. In the final part, is an application of an agent-based model (ABM) in IUBEA regarding behavioral and economic characteristics of building stocks in the context of building energy efficiency. This paper first describes the basic concept for this integrated spatial analysis environment IUBEA. Then, this paper discusses the main functions for this new environment in detail. The research serves a new paradigm of the multi-scale integrated analysis that can lead to an efficient energy model, which contributes the body of knowledge of energy modeling beyond the single building scale. Findings also proved that ABM is a feasible tool to tackle intellectual challenges in energy modeling. The final adoption example of Greater London demonstrated that the integrated analysis environment as a feasible tool for building energy consumption have unique advantages and wide applicability.

scholarly journals A Typhoon Shelter Selection and Evacuee Allocation Model: A Case Study of Macao (SAR), China

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (8) ◽  
pp. 3308 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiujuan Zhao ◽  
Peng Du ◽  
Jianguo Chen ◽  
Dapeng Yu ◽  
Wei Xu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Analysis ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Distance Constraint ◽  
Special Administrative Region ◽  
Allocation Model ◽  
Shelter Selection ◽  
Typhoon Disaster ◽  
The Government ◽  
Shelter Construction

Typhoon disaster represent one of the most prominent threats to public safety in the Macao Special Administrative Region (SAR) of China and can cause severe economic losses and casualties. Prior to the landing of typhoons, affected people should be evacuated to shelters as soon as possible; this is crucial to prevent injuries and deaths. Various models aim to solve this problem, but the characteristics of disasters and evacuees are often overlooked. This study proposes a model based on the influence of a typhoon and its impact on evacuees. The model’s objective is to minimize the total evacuation distance, taking into account the distance constraint. The model is solved using the spatial analysis tools of Geographic Information Systems (GIS). It is then applied in Macao to solve the evacuation process for Typhoon Mangkhut 2018. The result is an evacuee allocation plan that can help the government organize evacuation efficiently. Furthermore, the number of evacuees allocated to shelters is compared with shelter capacities, which can inform government shelter construction in the future.

Study on the Security of Government Portal Websites

2013 ◽  
Vol 380-384 ◽  
pp. 2534-2538
Author(s):  
Zhao Zhang ◽  
Fang Yong
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Risk Assessment Model ◽  
Security Risk ◽  
Threat Analysis ◽  
The Government ◽  
Security Risk Assessment ◽  
Government Portal ◽  
Portal Website ◽  
Administrative Strategies

On the basis of threat analysis, the paper proposes a security risk assessment model for government portal website. Using the model, the paper systematically analyzes the security risk of government portal websites and then explains the reason of them. To enhance the security of government portal websites, both technical and administrative strategies were proposed. Those security strategies help improve the image of the government and it plays an important role in constructing service government.

Application of an Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) to for strategic scale delta assessment of socio-ecological risk: Supporting Policy in Coastal Bangladesh

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Craig Hutton ◽  
Robert Nicholls ◽  
Alex Chapman ◽  
Charlotte Marcinko ◽  
Munsur Rahman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Integrated Assessment ◽  
Policy Decision ◽  
Integrated Assessment Model ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
The Sustainable Development ◽  
Coastal Bangladesh ◽  
Strategic Risk ◽  
South Central ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
The Government

<p>There is growing recognition that new approaches, underpinned by more system-oriented decision support tools, will be required to facilitate development compatible with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and to prevent the risk of dangerous socio-environmental breakdown. We demonstrate the potential of Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) to inform strategic policy decision making at a regional level, helping to understand key trade-offs as well as indirect or unintended impacts. The stakeholder co-produced Delta Dynamic Emulator Model (ΔDIEM) model is applied to the southwest coastal zone (pop. 14m) where high rates of extreme poverty prevail. The model integrates biophysical drivers, ecosystem services and community level household wellbeing, and in this work is applied an behalf of the Planning Commission of the Government of Bangladesh in order to assess strategic risk in coastal Bangladesh (2050) and particularly to support the Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100. The intervention we investigated included i) A proposed extensive polder network in the south-central region of coastal Bangladesh ii) Strategic development of a chronically waterlogged area of the delta. In both areas we highlight insights on implications of biophysical drivers on poverty, livelihoods and inequality as well as on risk transfer between regions and populations associated with implementation. In doing so we critically assess IAMs’ growing potential to ask and explore key questions and scenarios about the functioning of integrated biophysical and socioeconomic systems. Finally, we point to ongoing applications of the model in West Bengal</p>

The ‘return to community’

2009 ◽  
Vol 45 (4) ◽  
pp. 433-444 ◽  
Author(s):  
Barbara Fawcett ◽  
Maurice Hanlon
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Analysis ◽  
Social Entrepreneurship ◽  
Public Management ◽  
Human Services ◽  
New Public Management ◽  
Third Way ◽  
Human Service Professionals ◽  
New Public ◽  
Decision Making Processes ◽  
The Government

In Australia and the United Kingdom over the past two decades, the way human service professionals have been involved in ‘communities’, whether defined by ‘place’, ‘interest’ or ‘exclusion’, has varied with the political complexion of the government in power. This has resulted in both opportunities for and constraints on human services practice and community participation. In this article, the terminology and the conceptual frames associated with work both in and with communities are critically scrutinized. However, it is also contended that spatial analysis and social entrepreneurship can enable those working in the field to respond productively to the New Public Management and ‘Third Way’ approaches that have shaped the policy context of human services practice. It is argued that a form of spatial analysis and of social entrepreneurship can be used to facilitate meaningful participation in decision-making processes in a variety of communities and to re-forge social connections at a range of levels.

scholarly journals Assessment of Old Buildings in Lasem City Based on Tiered Quantitative Analysis Method with Weighting Factors

2018 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 169
Author(s):  
Andi Putranto ◽  
Dwi Pradnyawan
Keyword(s):  
Quantitative Analysis ◽  
Cultural Heritage ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Analysis Method ◽  
Weighting Factors ◽  
Heritage Buildings ◽  
Quantitative Analysis Method ◽  
Four Levels ◽  
The Government ◽  
Historical Heritage

Bangunan tua di Kota Lasem merupakan peninggalan sejarah dari masa Kolonial. Berdasarkan Undang-Undang Nomor 11 Tahun 2010 tentang Cagar Budaya, bangunan-bangunan tersebut dapat dikategorikan sebagai Bangunan Cagar Budaya jika telah melalui proses pendaftaran dan penilaian hingga pada akhirnya dilakukan penetapan oleh pemerintah sesuai dengan peringkatnya. Kegiatan penilaian terhadap bangunan tua di Kota Lasem yang dinilai memiliki ciri sebagai bangunan cagar budaya harus dilakukan terlebih dahulu sebagai dasar untuk membuat rekomendasi bagi pemerintah dalam melakukan penetapan sebagai bangunan cagar budaya sesuai peraturan perundang-undangan yang berlaku. Penilaian cagar budaya khususnya dari jenis objek bangunan selama ini telah dilakukan terutama dalam rangka penyusunan rekomendasi untuk penetapan namun tidak diketahui mekanisme penilaian yang diterapkan. Oleh karena itu, penelitian ini mengenalkan mekanisme model penilaian yang menerapkan metode analisis kuantitatif berjenjang dengan faktor pembobot. Metode ini biasa digunakan dalam berbagai penelitian di bidang ilmu eksakta khususnya dalam penilaian evaluasi lahan. Metode ini merupakan adaptasi dari metode analisis spasial yang berbasis pada algoritma. Hasil penilaian dengan model ini akan mampu menyusun formula yang diharapkan serta dapat menghasilkan nilai akhir untuk sebuah objek bangunan agar memperoleh kelas dalam kaitannya dengan rekomendasi untuk penetapan sebagai bangunan cagar budaya. Dalam penelitian ini diajukan empat kelas rekomendasi, yaitu kelas bangunan dengan tidak atau kurang direkomendasikan, kelas bangunan direkomendasikan dengan level cukup, kelas bangunan direkomendasikan dengan level kuat, dan kelas bangunan yang direkomendasikan dengan level mendesak. Keempat level ini berkaitan erat dengan skala prioritas dalam rangkaian kegiatan penetapan sebagai bangunan cagar budaya. Hasil penelitian ini diharapkan akan memperoleh suatu nilai kuantitatif dan terukur secara ilmiah dalam tata cara penilaian bangunan untuk penetapan sebagai bangunan cagar budaya.Old buildings in Lasem City are a historical heritage from the colonial period. Based on Law Number 11 of 2010 on Cultural Heritage, these buildings can be categorized as Cultural Buildings if they have gone through the process of registration and assessment and finally designated by the government according to their rank. The assessment of old buildings in Lasem City which are considered to have the characteristics of a cultural heritage building must be performed first as a basis for making recommendations for the government in making the designation as cultural heritage buildings following applicable laws and regulations. The assessment of cultural heritage, especially from the types of building objects has been performed mainly in the context of preparing recommendations for designation, but the assessment mechanism applied is unknown. Therefore, this research introduces the mechanism of assessment model that applies tiered quantitative analysis methods with weighting factors. This method is commonly used in various research in the exact sciences, especially in evaluating land. This method is an adaptation of the spatial analysis method based on the algorithm. The results of the assessment with this model will be able to formulate the expected formula as well as can produce the final value for building object in order to obtain a class in relation to recommendations for designation as cultural heritage buildings. In this research, four recommendation classes were proposed, namely building which is not suitable or not recommended, recommended building with sufficient level, recommended building with strong level, and recommended building with urgent level. These four levels are closely related to the priority scale in a series of designation as cultural heritage buildings. The results of this research are expected to obtain a quantitative value and scientifically measured in the procedure for assessing buildings for designation as cultural heritage buildings.

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