scholarly journals Case Reasoning-Based Emergency Decision Making for Oil and Gas Accidents

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (7) ◽  
pp. 981-990
Author(s):  
Ruifang La ◽  
Zaixu Zhang ◽  
Pengfei Bai ◽  
◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Search Space ◽  
Case Based Reasoning ◽  
Emergency Plans ◽  
Oil Pipeline ◽  
Emergency Decision Making ◽  
Disaster Monitoring ◽  
Emergency Decision

Throughout the digitization of the petrochemical industry, the Beidou technology-based disaster monitoring, evaluation, and early warning network system has supported emergency decision making for oil and gas accidents. Many problems arise throughout the emergency decision-making process during oil–gas accidents, such as the limited time for decision making, high complexity, and inadequate emergency plans. Targeting these issues, we propose the construction of a case library using a Bayesian network. This way, when a new accident occurs, its similarity and deviation indexes could be matched against those of historical cases registered in the database. As such, the candidate cases are adjusted using a case combination and pruning method, yielding the final qualified case model. A case verification of the “11.22” Sinopec Oil pipeline leak and explosion in Qingdao reveals that the proposed method only requires an oil and gas accident database to be built in advance, eliminating the need for sampling data to make decisions, and reducing the search space. Using the proposed case-based reasoning, historical data and experience regarding oil and gas emergency decisions can be activated and reused, which would greatly improve the modeling efficiency of the Bayesian network.

scholarly journals A Dynamic Emergency Decision-Making Method Based on Group Decision Making with Uncertainty Information

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 667-679
Author(s):  
Jing Zheng ◽  
Yingming Wang ◽  
Kai Zhang ◽  
Juan Liang
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Group Decision Making ◽  
Group Decision ◽  
Case Based Reasoning ◽  
Case Retrieval ◽  
Gas Explosion ◽  
Historical Case ◽  
Emergency Decision Making ◽  
Emergency Decision ◽  
Case Based

Abstract In emergency decision making (EDM), it is necessary to generate an effective alternative quickly. Case-based reasoning (CBR) has been applied to EDM; however, choosing the most suitable case from a set of similar cases after case retrieval remains challenging. This study proposes a dynamic method based on case retrieval and group decision making (GDM), called dynamic case-based reasoning group decision making (CBRGDM), for emergency alternative generation. In the proposed method, first, similar historical cases are identified through case similarity measurement. Then, evaluation information provided by group decision makers for similar cases is aggregated based on regret theory, and comprehensive perceived utilities for the similar cases are obtained. Finally, the most suitable historical case is obtained from the case similarities and the comprehensive perceived utilities for similar historical cases. The method is then applied to an example of a gas explosion in a coal company in China. The results show that the proposed method is feasible and effective in EDM. The advantages of the proposed method are verified based on comparisons with existing methods. In particular, dynamic CBRGDM can adjust the emergency alternative according to changing emergencies. The results of application of dynamic CBRGDM to a gas explosion and comparison with existing methods verify its feasibility and practicability.

Research on the Auxiliary Emergency Decision-Making System of Urban Mass Transit on the Basis of Case-Based Reasoning

2013 ◽  
Vol 361-363 ◽  
pp. 2127-2133
Author(s):  
Hong Fei Yu ◽  
Yong Qin ◽  
Zi Yang Wang ◽  
Zhong Xin Zhao ◽  
Jun Li
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Expert Knowledge ◽  
Mass Transit ◽  
System Structure ◽  
Case Based Reasoning ◽  
Urban Mass Transit ◽  
Emergency Decision Making ◽  
Function Module ◽  
Emergency Decision ◽  
Case Based

To meet the requirement of networked urban mass transit, the characteristics of urban mass transit emergency decision-making was analyzed, draw lessons from the thought of case-based reasoning technology, the method which combine CBR technology with expert knowledge was proposed. On the basis of which, the emergency decision-making support system was designed, analyzed the system structure and function module, discussed the key technologies involved in the system, focused on the representation of retrieval technology and case contingency plans and case. Provides support for the modernization of urban mass transit emergency platform.

An improved multi-criteria emergency decision-making method in environmental disasters

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guang-Jun Jiang ◽  
Hong-Xia Chen ◽  
Hong-Hua Sun ◽  
Mohammad Yazdi ◽  
Arman Nedjati ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Environmental Disasters ◽  
Emergency Decision Making ◽  
Emergency Decision

scholarly journals An Emergency Decision-Making Method for Urban Rainstorm Water-Logging: A China Study

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. 3453 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiyong Ding ◽  
Juefang Cai ◽  
Guangxiang Guo ◽  
Chen Chen
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Bayesian Analysis ◽  
Emergency Management ◽  
Utility Theory ◽  
Urban Traffic ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Water Logging ◽  
Multi Attribute Utility Theory ◽  
Emergency Decision Making ◽  
Emergency Decision

With the rapid development of the urbanization process, rainstorm water-logging events occur more frequently in big cities in China, which causes great impact on urban traffic safety and brings about severe economic losses. Water-logging has become a hot issue of widespread concern in China. As one kind of natural disasters and emergencies, rainstorm water-logging has the uncertainties of occurrence, development, and evolution. Thus, the emergency decision-making in rainstorm water-logging should be carried out in stages according to its development trend, which is very complicated. In this paper, an emergency decision-making method was proposed for urban water-logging with a hybrid use of dynamic network game technology, Bayesian analysis, and multi-attribute utility theory. The dynamic game process between “rainstorm water-logging” and “decision-making group” was established and the dynamic generation of emergency schemes was analyzed based on Bayesian analysis in various stages of water-logging. In terms of decision-making attributes, this paper mainly considered two goals, i.e., ensuring smooth traffic and controlling emergency cost. The multi-attribute utility theory was used to select the final scheme. An example analysis in Guangzhou of China showed that the method is more targeted and can achieve emergency management objectives more effectively when compared with traditional methods. Therefore, it can provide reference for the scientific decision-making of emergency management in urban rainstorm water-logging.

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