Numerical Simulations of Volcanic Ash Plume Dispersal from Kelud Volcano in Indonesia on February 13, 2014

2016 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 31-42 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hiroshi L. Tanaka ◽  
◽  
Masato Iguchi ◽  
Setsuya Nakada ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Volcanic Ash ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
Ground Deformation ◽  
Dispersion Model ◽  
Danger Zone ◽  
2014 Eruption ◽  
Southern Half ◽  
Ash Dispersion ◽  
Plume Dispersal ◽  
Ash Plume

In order to evaluate airborne ash densities, a real-time volcanic ash dispersion model, PUFF, is applied to the February 13, 2014 eruption of Kelud volcano in Indonesia. The emission rate of the ash mass from the vent is estimated based on the empirical formulae tested at Sakurajima volcano using ground deformation and seismic monitoring data.According to the result of the PUFF model simulation, the circular shape of the anvil ash cloud 17 km in height extends during the first two hours over a radius of 200 km from the volcano. The core region within 50 km of the volcano shows an airborne ash density of 1000 mg/m3. Three hours after the initial eruption, the area with 100 mg/m$^bm 3$ extends 300 km to the west, covering Yogyakarta Airport. Due to low-level winds, Surabaya Airport to the northeast also becomes part of the area with 100 mg/m3. The result of the ash plume dispersal 7 hours into the eruption indicates that the entire island of Java is in the danger zone for commercial airliners, as ash exceeds 10 mg/m3. Although satellite images show that the ash plume is located only in the southern half of western Java, the simulation results quantitatively indicate much wider extents of the aircraft danger zone.

scholarly journals Numerical Simulations of Volcanic Ash Plume Dispersal for Sakura-Jima Using Real-Time Emission Rate Estimation

2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 160-172 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hiroshi L. Tanaka ◽  
Masato Iguchi ◽  
◽  
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Volcanic Ash ◽  
Emission Rate ◽  
Ground Deformation ◽  
Dispersion Model ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Danger Zone ◽  
Rate Estimation ◽  
Ash Dispersion ◽  
Ash Fallout

In this study, a real-time volcanic ash dispersion model called PUFF is applied to the Sakura-jima volcano erupted on 16 June 2018 to assess the performance of the new system connected with a real-time emission rate estimation. The emission rate of the ash mass from the vent is estimated based on an empirical formula developed for the Sakura-jima volcano using seismic monitoring and ground deformation data. According to the time series of the estimated emission rate, a major eruption occurred at 7:20 JST indicating an emission rate of 1000 t/min and continued for 15 min showing a plume height of 4500 m. It is observed that we need to introduce an adjusting constant to fit the model prediction of the ash fallout with the ground observation. Once the particle mass is calibrated, the distributions of ash fallout are compared with other eruption events to confirm the model performance. According to the PUFF model simulations, an airborne ash concentration of 100 mg/m3extends to a wide area around the volcano within one hour after the eruption. The simulation result quantitatively indicates the location of the danger zone for commercial airliners. The PUFF model system combined with the real-time emission rate estimation is useful for aviation safety purposes as well as for ground transportation and human health around active volcanoes.

scholarly journals Determination of time- and height-resolved volcanic ash emissions and their use for quantitative ash dispersion modeling: the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 4333-4351 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Stohl ◽  
A. J. Prata ◽  
S. Eckhardt ◽  
L. Clarisse ◽  
A. Durant ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Volcanic Ash ◽  
Dispersion Model ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
General Nature ◽  
Aviation Industry ◽  
Dispersion Modeling ◽  
Source Information ◽  
European Area ◽  
Ash Dispersion

Abstract. The April–May, 2010 volcanic eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull, Iceland caused significant economic and social disruption in Europe whilst state of the art measurements and ash dispersion forecasts were heavily criticized by the aviation industry. Here we demonstrate for the first time that large improvements can be made in quantitative predictions of the fate of volcanic ash emissions, by using an inversion scheme that couples a priori source information and the output of a Lagrangian dispersion model with satellite data to estimate the volcanic ash source strength as a function of altitude and time. From the inversion, we obtain a total fine ash emission of the eruption of 8.3 ± 4.2 Tg for particles in the size range of 2.8–28 μm diameter. We evaluate the results of our model results with a posteriori ash emissions using independent ground-based, airborne and space-borne measurements both in case studies and statistically. Subsequently, we estimate the area over Europe affected by volcanic ash above certain concentration thresholds relevant for the aviation industry. We find that during three episodes in April and May, volcanic ash concentrations at some altitude in the atmosphere exceeded the limits for the "Normal" flying zone in up to 14 % (6–16 %), 2 % (1–3 %) and 7 % (4–11 %), respectively, of the European area. For a limit of 2 mg m−3 only two episodes with fractions of 1.5 % (0.2–2.8 %) and 0.9 % (0.1–1.6 %) occurred, while the current "No-Fly" zone criterion of 4 mg m−3 was rarely exceeded. Our results have important ramifications for determining air space closures and for real-time quantitative estimations of ash concentrations. Furthermore, the general nature of our method yields better constraints on the distribution and fate of volcanic ash in the Earth system.

scholarly journals Determination of time- and height-resolved volcanic ash emissions for quantitative ash dispersion modeling: the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 5541-5588 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Stohl ◽  
A. J. Prata ◽  
S. Eckhardt ◽  
L. Clarisse ◽  
A. Durant ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Volcanic Ash ◽  
Size Range ◽  
Dispersion Model ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
General Nature ◽  
Aviation Industry ◽  
Dispersion Modeling ◽  
Source Information ◽  
Ash Dispersion

Abstract. The April–May 2010 volcanic eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull, Iceland caused significant economic and social disruption in Europe whilst state of the art measurements and ash dispersion forecasts were heavily criticized by the aviation industry. Here we demonstrate for the first time that dramatic improvements can be made in quantitative predictions of the fate of volcanic ash emissions, by using an inversion scheme that couples a priori source information and the output of a Lagrangian dispersion model with satellite data to estimate the volcanic ash source strength as a function of altitude and time. From the inversion, we obtain a total fine ash emission of the eruption of 8.3 ± 4.2 Tg for particles in the size range of 2.8–28 μm diameter and extrapolate this to a total ash emission of 11.9 ± 5.9 Tg for the size range of 0.25–250 μm. We evaluate the results of our a posteriori model using independent ground-based, airborne and space-borne measurements both in case studies and statistically. Subsequently, we estimate the area over Europe affected by volcanic ash above certain concentration thresholds relevant for the aviation industry. We find that during three episodes in April and May, volcanic ash concentrations at some altitude in the atmosphere exceeded the limits for the "normal" flying zone in up to 14% (6–16%), 2% (1–3%) and 7% (4–11%), respectively, of the European area. For a limit of 2 mg m−3 only two episodes with fractions of 1.5% (0.2–2.8%) and 0.9% (0.1–1.6%) occurred, while the current "no-fly" zone criterion of 4 mg m−3 was rarely exceeded. Our results have important ramifications for determining air space closures and for real-time quantitative estimations of ash concentrations. Furthermore, the general nature of our method yields better constraints on the distribution and fate of volcanic ash in the Earth system.

scholarly journals Development of PUFF–Gaussian dispersion model for the prediction of atmospheric distribution of particle concentration

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jooyong Lee ◽  
Sungsu Lee ◽  
HyunA Son ◽  
Waon-ho Yi
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Analysis ◽  
Volcanic Ash ◽  
Dispersion Model ◽  
Gaussian Model ◽  
Field Measurements ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Lagrangian Model ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Ash Dispersion ◽  
Gaussian Dispersion

AbstractMt. Baekdu’s eruption precursors are continuously observed and have become a global social issue. Volcanic activities in neighboring Japan are also active. There are no direct risks of proximity-related disasters in South Korea from the volcanic eruptions at Japan or Mt. Baekdu; however, severe impacts are expected from the spread of volcanic ash. Numerical analysis models are generally used to predict and analyze the diffusion of volcanic ash, and each numerical analysis model has its own limitations caused by the computational algorithm it employs. In this study, we analyzed the PUFF–UAF model, an ash dispersion model based on the Lagrangian approach, and observed that the number of particles used in tracking substantially affected the results. Even with the presence of millions of particles, the concentration of ash predicted by the PUFF–UAF model does not accurately represent the dispersion. To overcome this deficit and utilize the computational efficiency of the Lagrangian model, we developed a PUFF–Gaussian model to consider the dispersive nature of ash by applying the Gaussian dispersion theory to the results of the PUFF–UAF model. The results of the proposed method were compared with the field measurements from actual volcanic eruptions, and the comparison showed that the proposed method can produce reasonably accurate predictions for ash dispersion.

scholarly journals Anatomy of a Paroxysmal Lava Fountain at Etna Volcano: The Case of the 12 March 2021, Episode

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (15) ◽  
pp. 3052
Author(s):  
Sonia Calvari ◽  
Alessandro Bonaccorso ◽  
Gaetana Ganci
Keyword(s):  
Lava Flow ◽  
Ground Deformation ◽  
Monitoring Network ◽  
Lava Flows ◽  
Etna Volcano ◽  
Lava Fountain ◽  
Eruptive Episode ◽  
Lava Fountains ◽  
Borehole Strainmeter ◽  
Ash Plume

On 13 December 2020, Etna volcano entered a new eruptive phase, giving rise to a number of paroxysmal episodes involving increased Strombolian activity from the summit craters, lava fountains feeding several-km high eruptive columns and ash plumes, as well as lava flows. As of 2 August 2021, 57 such episodes have occurred in 2021, all of them from the New Southeast Crater (NSEC). Each paroxysmal episode lasted a few hours and was sometimes preceded (but more often followed) by lava flow output from the crater rim lasting a few hours. In this paper, we use remote sensing data from the ground and satellite, integrated with ground deformation data recorded by a high precision borehole strainmeter to characterize the 12 March 2021 eruptive episode, which was one of the most powerful (and best recorded) among that occurred since 13 December 2020. We describe the formation and growth of the lava fountains, and the way they feed the eruptive column and the ash plume, using data gathered from the INGV visible and thermal camera monitoring network, compared with satellite images. We show the growth of the lava flow field associated with the explosive phase obtained from a fixed thermal monitoring camera. We estimate the erupted volume of pyroclasts from the heights of the lava fountains measured by the cameras, and the erupted lava flow volume from the satellite-derived radiant heat flux. We compare all erupted volumes (pyroclasts plus lava flows) with the total erupted volume inferred from the volcano deflation recorded by the borehole strainmeter, obtaining a total erupted volume of ~3 × 106 m3 of magma constrained by the strainmeter. This volume comprises ~1.6 × 106 m3 of pyroclasts erupted during the lava fountain and 2.4 × 106 m3 of lava flow, with ~30% of the erupted pyroclasts being remobilized as rootless lava to feed the lava flows. The episode lasted 130 min and resulted in an eruption rate of ~385 m3 s−1 and caused the formation of an ash plume rising from the margins of the lava fountain that rose up to 12.6 km a.s.l. in ~1 h. The maximum elevation of the ash plume was well constrained by an empirical formula that can be used for prompt hazard assessment.

scholarly journals Development and application of a backscatter lidar forward operator for quantitative validation of aerosol dispersion models and future data assimilation

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (12) ◽  
pp. 4705-4726 ◽  
Author(s):  
Armin Geisinger ◽  
Andreas Behrendt ◽  
Volker Wulfmeyer ◽  
Jens Strohbach ◽  
Jochen Förstner ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Volcanic Ash ◽  
Model Systems ◽  
Spherical Particles ◽  
Lidar Measurement ◽  
Backscatter Coefficient ◽  
Future Data ◽  
Sensitivity Studies ◽  
Ash Dispersion ◽  
Forward Operator

Abstract. A new backscatter lidar forward operator was developed which is based on the distinct calculation of the aerosols' backscatter and extinction properties. The forward operator was adapted to the COSMO-ART ash dispersion simulation of the Eyjafjallajökull eruption in 2010. While the particle number concentration was provided as a model output variable, the scattering properties of each individual particle type were determined by dedicated scattering calculations. Sensitivity studies were performed to estimate the uncertainties related to the assumed particle properties. Scattering calculations for several types of non-spherical particles required the usage of T-matrix routines. Due to the distinct calculation of the backscatter and extinction properties of the models' volcanic ash size classes, the sensitivity studies could be made for each size class individually, which is not the case for forward models based on a fixed lidar ratio. Finally, the forward-modeled lidar profiles have been compared to automated ceilometer lidar (ACL) measurements both qualitatively and quantitatively while the attenuated backscatter coefficient was chosen as a suitable physical quantity. As the ACL measurements were not calibrated automatically, their calibration had to be performed using satellite lidar and ground-based Raman lidar measurements. A slight overestimation of the model-predicted volcanic ash number density was observed. Major requirements for future data assimilation of data from ACL have been identified, namely, the availability of calibrated lidar measurement data, a scattering database for atmospheric aerosols, a better representation and coverage of aerosols by the ash dispersion model, and more investigation in backscatter lidar forward operators which calculate the backscatter coefficient directly for each individual aerosol type. The introduced forward operator offers the flexibility to be adapted to a multitude of model systems and measurement setups.

scholarly journals Characterizing the Atmospheric Conditions Leading to Large Error Growth in Volcanic Ash Cloud Forecasts

2018 ◽  
Vol 57 (4) ◽  
pp. 1011-1019 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. F. Dacre ◽  
N. J. Harvey
Keyword(s):  
Flow Separation ◽  
Volcanic Ash ◽  
Dispersion Model ◽  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Large Error ◽  
Ensemble Member ◽  
Forecast Errors ◽  
Atmospheric Conditions ◽  
Wind Fields ◽  
Ensemble Forecasts

ABSTRACTVolcanic ash poses an ongoing risk to safety in the airspace worldwide. The accuracy with which volcanic ash dispersion can be forecast depends on the conditions of the atmosphere into which it is emitted. In this study, meteorological ensemble forecasts are used to drive a volcanic ash transport and dispersion model for the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption in Iceland. From analysis of these simulations, the authors determine why the skill of deterministic-meteorological forecasts decreases with increasing ash residence time and identify the atmospheric conditions in which this drop in skill occurs most rapidly. Large forecast errors are more likely when ash particles encounter regions of large horizontal flow separation in the atmosphere. Nearby ash particle trajectories can rapidly diverge, leading to a reduction in the forecast accuracy of deterministic forecasts that do not represent variability in wind fields at the synoptic scale. The flow‐separation diagnostic identifies where and why large ensemble spread may occur. This diagnostic can be used to alert forecasters to situations in which the ensemble mean is not representative of the individual ensemble‐member volcanic ash distributions. Knowledge of potential ensemble outliers can be used to assess confidence in the forecast and to avoid potentially dangerous situations in which forecasts fail to predict harmful levels of volcanic ash.

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