Downfall of Tokyo due to Devastating Compound Disaster

2011 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 176-184 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yoshiaki Kawata ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Difficult Problem ◽  
Tokyo Bay ◽  
Edo Period ◽  
River Flooding ◽  
Compound Disaster

Compound disasters are defined as double- or triplepunch disasters. As such, they cause more serious cumulative damage than individual disasters occurring independently. The independent occurrence of Tokyo metropolitan inland earthquakes is expected to kill 11,000 and cause ¥112 trillion in damage. An earthquake in Tokyo would also destroy river levees, coastal dikes, and disaster measure facilities such as water gates and locks due to liquefaction. Following such a earthquake, river flooding by the Tone and Arakawa rivers or storm surge overflow around Tokyo bay could easily occur along with strong typhoons. An Edo period (1603-1868) compound disaster involved the 1855 Ansei Edo earthquake and the 1856 Ansei Edo storm surge. With global warming progressively worsening, huge floods and storm surges are increasingly likely to occur independently. The risk that they will occur as part of a compound disaster is also increasing. Catastrophic disasters are characterized by being super-wide in area damage, compound in combining disasters, and prolonged in recovery. With the vast sea-level or low areas in Tokyo, long-term submergence due to inundation will be unavoidable. The most difficult problem, however, will be how to evacuate over 1 million people.

IMPACT ASSESSMENT ON STORM SURGE RISKS TO CONTAINERS CONSIDERING GLOBAL WARMING

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rikito Hisamatsu ◽  
Rikito Hisamatsu ◽  
Kei Horie ◽  
Kei Horie
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Assessment Tools ◽  
Inundation Depth ◽  
Risk Assessment Tools ◽  
Risk Maps ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Vulnerability Functions

Container yards tend to be located along waterfronts that are exposed to high risk of storm surges. However, risk assessment tools such as vulnerability functions and risk maps for containers have not been sufficiently developed. In addition, damage due to storm surges is expected to increase owing to global warming. This paper aims to assess storm surge impact due to global warming for containers located at three major bays in Japan. First, we developed vulnerability functions for containers against storm surges using an engineering approach. Second, we simulated storm surges at three major bays using the SuWAT model and taking global warming into account. Finally, we developed storm surge risk maps for containers based on current and future situations using the vulnerability function and simulated inundation depth. As a result, we revealed the impact of global warming on storm surge risks for containers quantitatively.

scholarly journals Distributions of Possible Maximum Storm Surges and High Waves in Tokyo Bay under Global Warming Affected Climate

2011 ◽  
Vol 67 (2) ◽  
pp. I_396-I_400 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tomokazu MURAKAMI ◽  
Hironori FUKAO ◽  
Jun YOSHINO ◽  
Takashi YASUDA ◽  
Satoshi IIZUKA ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Tokyo Bay

scholarly journals APPLICABILITY OF THE VERTICAL TELESCOPIC BREAKWATER USING THE PAST TYPHOON IN TOKYO BAY

2020 ◽  
pp. 35
Author(s):  
Yako Harada ◽  
Yukihisa Matsumoto ◽  
Kazuho Morishita ◽  
Nobuyuki Oonishi ◽  
Kazuyoshi Kihara ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Numerical Calculations ◽  
Numerical Analyses ◽  
Tokyo Bay ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Long Period ◽  
The Past

The vertical telescopic breakwater(VTB), which is a new breakwater that permits the navigation of ships, remain at the bottom of the sea during calm and rise to the surface during tsunamis or storm surges. Kawai et al. (2017) and Arikawa et al. (2019) found that it is effective not only for swell waves, but also for long-period waves simulating tsunamis and storm surges by previous experiments and numerical analyses. However, there have been few studies on the performance of VTB by numerical calculations in actual ports using actual typhoons. In addition, sea levels and changes in characteristics of typhoon due to climate change are predicted to occur; hence, we are concerned about the damage in all quarters caused by storm surge inundation, especially at Tokyo. Therefore, in this study, we used hypothetical typhoons under worst-case scenarios and quantitatively evaluated the protection performance of VTB against hypothetical typhoons with different aperture rates of VTB in Tokyo Bay by the numerical simulation.Recorded Presentation from the vICCE (YouTube Link): https://youtu.be/qof5ixKqIiA

scholarly journals Long-term variability of storm surge frequency in the Venice Lagoon: an update thanks to 18th century sea level observations

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 527-535 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Raicich
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
18Th Century ◽  
Venice Lagoon ◽  
Mean Sea Level ◽  
Sea Level Anomalies ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Remarkable Event

Abstract. Sea level observations made in the Venice Lagoon between 1751 and 1792 have been recovered, consisting of two time series of daily data on high and low waters in Venice and Chioggia. From comparisons with modern observations, the quality of the 18th century data appears to be good enough to allow a useful analysis. A composite time series of daily mean sea level is obtained by merging the 18th century data and 1872–2004 observations in Venice Punta della Salute. The absence of reliable information on vertical references prevents the connection of the two 18th century time series with each other and with modern observations. However, daily sea level anomalies relative to the mean sea level enable us to recognize storm surge events that appear to occur more frequently in the second half of the 18th century than in the late 19th and 20th centuries, particularly during the 1751–1769 period. The record-breaking storm surge of 4 November 1966 turns out to be a remarkable event even in comparison to the events extracted from the 18th century time series. Further work is required to fill the gap between the old and modern observations.

scholarly journals Storm Surge Inundation Analysis with Consideration of Building Shape and Layout at Ise Bay by Maximum Potential Typhoon

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (12) ◽  
pp. 1024
Author(s):  
Masaki Nimura ◽  
Shuzo Nishida ◽  
Koji Kawasaki ◽  
Tomokazu Murakami ◽  
Shinya Shimokawa
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
High Velocity ◽  
High Tide ◽  
Disaster Mitigation ◽  
Ise Bay ◽  
Building Shape ◽  
Tide Level

Global warming is feared to cause sea-level rise and intensification of typhoons, and these changes will lead to an increase in storm surge levels. For that reason, it is essential to predict the inundation areas for the maximum potential typhoon and evaluate the disaster mitigation effect of seawalls. In this study, we analyzed storm surge inundation of the inner part of Ise Bay (coast of Aichi and Mie Prefecture, Japan) due to the maximum potential typhoon in the future climate with global warming. In the analysis, a high-resolution topographical model was constructed considering buildings’ shape and arrangement and investigated the inundation process inside the seawall in detail. The results showed that buildings strongly influence the storm surge inundation process inside the seawall, and a high-velocity current is generated in some areas. It is also found that closing the seawall door delays the inundation inside the seawall, but the evacuation after inundation is more difficult under the seawall doors closed condition than opened condition when the high tide level exceeds the seawall.

scholarly journals Storm surges in the Western Black Sea. Operational forecasting

2000 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 45 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. MUNGOV ◽  
P. DANIEL
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Black Sea ◽  
Tide Gauge ◽  
Coastal Zone Management ◽  
World Ocean ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Statistical Characteristics ◽  
The Black Sea ◽  
Operational Forecasting

The frequency of the storm surges in the Black Sea is lower than that in other regions of the World Ocean but they cause significant damages as the magnitude of the sea level set-up is up to 7-8 times greater than that of other sea level variations. New methods and systems for storm surge forecasting and studying their statistical characteristics are absolutely necessary for the purposes of the coastal zone management. The operational forecasting storm surge model of Meteo-France was adopted for the Black Sea in accordance with the bilateral agreement between Meteo-France and NINMH. The model was verified using tide-gauge observations for the strongest storms observed along the Bulgarian coast over the last 10 years.

scholarly journals TIME-VARYING EMULATOR FOR SHORT- AND LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF COASTAL FLOODING (TESLA-FLOOD)

2018 ◽  
pp. 4
Author(s):  
Dylan Anderson ◽  
Peter Ruggiero ◽  
Fernando J. Mendez ◽  
Ana Rueda ◽  
Jose A. Antolinez ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Coastal Flooding ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Sea Level Anomalies ◽  
Extreme Water Levels ◽  
Flooding Risk ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Flooding Events

The ability to predict coastal flooding events and associated impacts has emerged as a primary societal need within the context of projected sea level rise (SLR) and climate change. The duration and extent of flooding is the result of nonlinear interactions between multiple environmental forcings (oceanographic, meteorological, hydrological) acting at varying spatial (local to global) and temporal scales (hours to centuries). Individual components contributing to total water levels (TWLs) include astronomical tides, monthly sea level anomalies, storm surges, and wave setup. Common practices often use the observational record of extreme water levels to estimate return levels of future extremes. However, such projections often do not account for the individual contribution of processes resulting in compound TWL events, nor do they account for time-dependent probabilities due to seasonal, interannual, and long-term oscillations within the climate system. More robust estimates of coastal flooding risk require the computation of joint probabilities and the simulation of hypothetical TWLs to better constrain the projection of extremes (Serafin [2014]).

scholarly journals Still normal? Contextualizing real-time data with long-term statistics to monitor anomalies and systematic changes in storm surge activity – Introduction of a prototype web tool storm surge monitor for the German coasts

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xin Liu ◽  
Insa Meinke ◽  
Ralf Weisse
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Time Data ◽  
Storm Activity ◽  
The Public ◽  
Real Time Data

Abstract. Storm surges represent a major threat to many low-lying coastal areas in the world. While most places can cope with or are more or less adapted to present-day risks, future risks may increase from factors such as sea level rise, subsidence, or changes in storm activity. This may require further or alternative adaptation and strategies. For most places, both forecasts and real-time observations are available. However, analyses of long-term changes or recent severe extremes that are important for decision-making are usually only available sporadically or with substantial delay. In this paper, we propose to contextualize real-time data with long-term statistics to make such information publicly available in near real-time. We implement and demonstrate the concept of a ”storm surge monitor” for tide gauges along the German North Sea and Baltic Sea coasts. It provides automated near real-time assessments of the course and severity of the ongoing storm surge season and its single events. The assessment is provided in terms of storm surge height, frequency, duration, and intensity. It is proposed that such near real-time assessments provide added value to the public and decision-making. It is further suggested that the concept is transferable to other coastal regions threatened by storm surges.

scholarly journals Coastal Floods Induced by Mean Sea Level Rise—Ecological and Socioeconomic Impacts on a Mesotidal Lagoon

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (12) ◽  
pp. 1430
Author(s):  
Francisco Silveira ◽  
Carina Lurdes Lopes ◽  
João Pedro Pinheiro ◽  
Humberto Pereira ◽  
João Miguel Dias
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Socioeconomic Impacts ◽  
Mean Sea Level ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Ria De Aveiro ◽  
The Future ◽  
Coastal Floods ◽  
Agricultural Areas

Coastal floods are currently a strong threat to socioeconomic activities established on the margins of lagoons and estuaries, as well as to their ecological equilibrium, a situation that is expected to become even more worrying in the future in a climate change context. The Ria de Aveiro lagoon, located on the northwest coast of Portugal, is not an exception to these threats, especially considering the low topography of its margins which has led to several flood events in the past. The growing concerns with these regions stem from the mean sea level (MSL) rise induced by climate changes as well as the amplification of the impacts of storm surge events, which are predicted to increase in the future due to higher mean sea levels. Therefore, this study aims to evaluate the influence of MSL rise on the inundation of Ria de Aveiro habitats and to assess the changes in inundation patterns resulting from frequent storm surges (2-year return period) from the present to the future, assessing their ecological and socioeconomic impacts. For this, a numerical model (Delft3D), previously calibrated and validated, was used to simulate the lagoon hydrodynamics under different scenarios combining MSL rise and frequent storm surge events. The numerical results demonstrated that MSL rise can change the vertical zonation and threaten the local habitats. Many areas of the lagoon may change from supratidal/intertidal to intertidal/subtidal, with relevant consequences for local species. The increase in MSL expected for the end of the century could make the lagoon more vulnerable to the effect of frequent storm surges, harming mostly agricultural areas, causing great losses for this sector and for many communities who depend on it. These extreme events can also affect artificialized areas and, in some cases, endanger lives.

scholarly journals Impact of Human Intervention and Sea Level Rise on Water-Logging Scenarios inside Polders-24 And 25 of Bangladesh

2022 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 73-83
Author(s):  
Jamal M Haider ◽  
Haque M Aminul ◽  
Hossain Md Jahid ◽  
Haque Anisul
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Coastal Region ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
South Central ◽  
Water Logging ◽  
Natural Man ◽  
The Impact

Coastal region of Bangladesh possesses a fragile ecosystem and is exposed to hazards like cyclones, floods, storm surges, and water-logging. A detail understanding on the impact of water-logging due to various natural, man-made and climate change scenarios is still lacking. Considering this research gap, the present research is aimed to study impacts of these scenarios inside polders-24 and 25 which are situated on the western part of the coastal region. In this Study as natural scenario, sedimentation in the Hari River; as man-made scenario, new polders in the south-central region and as SLR scenario, an extreme sea level rise of 1.48m are considered. Long-term satellite images are analyzed, and numerical model is applied in the study area. The result shows that water-logging is more acute inside polder-25 compared to polder-24. Sedimentation in Hari River aggravates the water-logging condition. Dredging in Hari River does improve the situation. Journal of Engineering Science 12(3), 2021, 73-83

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