The 7/7 Attacks - A Case Study in Intelligence Failure

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rhys Martin
Keyword(s):  
Intelligence Failure

Yom Kippur War

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dina Rezk
Keyword(s):  
Henry Kissinger ◽  
Military Capability ◽  
Arab Culture ◽  
Yom Kippur War ◽  
Intelligence Failure ◽  
Yom Kippur ◽  
Radical Revision ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Military Victory

The Yom Kippur War was a critical game changer in the Arab-Israeli conflict and the politics of the Middle East. Henry Kissinger famously explained the ‘intelligence failure’ of Yom Kippur thus: ‘Our definition of rationality did not take seriously the notion of starting an unwinnable war to restore self-respect.’ The most recently released material suggests that Kissinger’s explanation requires some revising. This chapter demonstrates that British and American analysts understood perfectly well Sadat’s intentions, specifically his desire for a limited military victory to gain ‘face’ at home and leverage abroad. Instead analytical weakness lay in assessments of Egypt’s military capability where there was a unanimous consensus of Egypt’s impotency. Ideas about Arab ‘culture’ seem to have played a key role in this underestimation: the notion of a fatalistic Islam for example, prevailed in numerous analyses. In a radical revision of the conventional wisdom about the strengths and weaknesses of Western intelligence agencies, the Yom Kippur war provides a revealing case study whereby the West excelled in understanding the ‘mystery’ or intentions leading to war, but simply did not believe that Egypt possessed the capability to act effectively, and so perilously dismissed the prospect of an Egyptian attack.

Failures in National Intelligence Estimates: The Case of the Yom Kippur War

1976 ◽  
Vol 28 (3) ◽  
pp. 348-380 ◽  
Author(s):  
Avi Shlaim
Keyword(s):  
Case Studies ◽  
Systematic Research ◽  
Accurate Information ◽  
Institutional Reforms ◽  
Yom Kippur War ◽  
Theory Of Intelligence ◽  
Intelligence Failure ◽  
Yom Kippur ◽  
Intelligence Failures

The principal question which this article seeks to answer is: Why was the intention of the Arabs to launch the Yom Kippur War misperceived despite the fact that Israeli Intelligence had ample and accurate information on enemy moves and dispositions? In this anatomy of the Israeli intelligence failure, extensive use is made of the report of the official commission of inquiry that investigated the events leading up to the war. The article is equally concerned with the phenomenon of strategic surprise in general, and this case study is used to explore the psychological and organizational roots of intelligence failures. Some safeguards and institutional reforms for reducing the frequency of failure are examined. However, there is no suggestion that surprise can ever be eliminated altogether. In conclusion a case is made for developing a theory of intelligence through case studies and systematic research.

The Genesis and Internal Dynamics of El Salvador's People's Revolutionary Army, 1970–1976

2014 ◽  
Vol 38 (01) ◽  
pp. 102-129
Author(s):  
ALBERTO MARTÍN ÁLVAREZ ◽  
EUDALD CORTINA ORERO
Keyword(s):  
Latin America ◽  
El Salvador ◽  
Early Years ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
Internal Dynamics ◽  
Internal Coherence ◽  
The 1960S

AbstractUsing interviews with former militants and previously unpublished documents, this article traces the genesis and internal dynamics of the Ejército Revolucionario del Pueblo (People's Revolutionary Army, ERP) in El Salvador during the early years of its existence (1970–6). This period was marked by the inability of the ERP to maintain internal coherence or any consensus on revolutionary strategy, which led to a series of splits and internal fights over control of the organisation. The evidence marshalled in this case study sheds new light on the origins of the armed Salvadorean Left and thus contributes to a wider understanding of the processes of formation and internal dynamics of armed left-wing groups that emerged from the 1960s onwards in Latin America.

Culture and the plasticity of perception

2020 ◽  
Vol 43 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Lifshitz ◽  
T. M. Luhrmann
Keyword(s):  
Cultural Context ◽  
Sensory Experience ◽  
Cultural Learning ◽  
The World

Abstract Culture shapes our basic sensory experience of the world. This is particularly striking in the study of religion and psychosis, where we and others have shown that cultural context determines both the structure and content of hallucination-like events. The cultural shaping of hallucinations may provide a rich case-study for linking cultural learning with emerging prediction-based models of perception.

Dual systems for all: Higher-order, role-based relational reasoning as a uniquely derived feature of human cognition

2019 ◽  
Vol 42 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel J. Povinelli ◽  
Gabrielle C. Glorioso ◽  
Shannon L. Kuznar ◽  
Mateja Pavlic
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Reasoning ◽  
Higher Order ◽  
Important Case ◽  
Human Cognition ◽  
Relational Reasoning ◽  
Dual Systems ◽  
First Order ◽  
Reasoning System ◽  
Role Based

Abstract Hoerl and McCormack demonstrate that although animals possess a sophisticated temporal updating system, there is no evidence that they also possess a temporal reasoning system. This important case study is directly related to the broader claim that although animals are manifestly capable of first-order (perceptually-based) relational reasoning, they lack the capacity for higher-order, role-based relational reasoning. We argue this distinction applies to all domains of cognition.

Sociocultural memory development research drives new directions in gadgetry science

2019 ◽  
Vol 42 ◽  
Author(s):  
Penny Van Bergen ◽  
John Sutton
Keyword(s):  
Episodic Memory ◽  
Autobiographical Memory ◽  
Developmental Psychology ◽  
Cross Cultural ◽  
Memory Development ◽  
Development Research ◽  
Cultural Research ◽  
New Directions ◽  
Cross Cultural Research

Abstract Sociocultural developmental psychology can drive new directions in gadgetry science. We use autobiographical memory, a compound capacity incorporating episodic memory, as a case study. Autobiographical memory emerges late in development, supported by interactions with parents. Intervention research highlights the causal influence of these interactions, whereas cross-cultural research demonstrates culturally determined diversity. Different patterns of inheritance are discussed.

Construction of plastic contact deformation maps on ceramics: a case study on aluminum nitride

1996 ◽  
Vol 54 ◽  
pp. 636-637
Author(s):  
D. L. Callahan
Keyword(s):  
Plastic Deformation ◽  
Aluminum Nitride ◽  
Mechanical Response ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Bright Field Image ◽  
Perfectly Plastic ◽  
Contrast Analysis ◽  
Deformation Patterns

Modern polishing, precision machining and microindentation techniques allow the processing and mechanical characterization of ceramics at nanometric scales and within entirely plastic deformation regimes. The mechanical response of most ceramics to such highly constrained contact is not predictable from macroscopic properties and the microstructural deformation patterns have proven difficult to characterize by the application of any individual technique. In this study, TEM techniques of contrast analysis and CBED are combined with stereographic analysis to construct a three-dimensional microstructure deformation map of the surface of a perfectly plastic microindentation on macroscopically brittle aluminum nitride.The bright field image in Figure 1 shows a lg Vickers microindentation contained within a single AlN grain far from any boundaries. High densities of dislocations are evident, particularly near facet edges but are not individually resolvable. The prominent bend contours also indicate the severity of plastic deformation. Figure 2 is a selected area diffraction pattern covering the entire indentation area.

A case study of a nontraditional basic science curriculum

1982 ◽  
Vol 46 (6) ◽  
pp. 314-322
Author(s):  
GI Roth ◽  
RB Bridges ◽  
AT Brown ◽  
R Calmes ◽  
TT Lillich ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Basic Science ◽  
Science Curriculum ◽  
Basic Science Curriculum
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