MODELLING HOUSING MARKET AND HOUSING PRICE DYNAMICS IN CROATIA*

Booms and Busts in Housing Market and Health Outcomes for Older Americans

Innovation in Aging ◽

10.1093/geroni/igab012 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Dahai Yue ◽

Ninez A Ponce

Keyword(s):

Older Adults ◽

Housing Market ◽

Fixed Effects ◽

Price Index ◽

Housing Prices ◽

Housing Price ◽

Health Impacts ◽

Price Dynamics ◽

Housing Price Index ◽

Housing Price Dynamics

Abstract Background and Objectives The U.S. housing market has experienced considerable fluctuations over the last decades. This study aimed to investigate the impacts of housing price dynamics on physical health, mental health, and health-related behaviors for older American outright owners, mortgaged owners, and renters. Research Design and Methods We drew longitudinal data from the 1992-2016 Health and Retirement Study and merged it to the five-digit ZIP-code level Housing Price Index. The analytic sample comprised 34,182 persons and 174,759 person-year observations. We used a fixed-effects model to identify the health impacts of housing price dynamics separately for outright owners, mortgaged owners, and renters. Results A 100% increase in Housing Price Index was associated with a 2.81 and 3.50 percentage points (pp) increase in the probability of reporting excellent/very good/good health status for mortgage owners and renters, respectively. It was also related to a lower likelihood of obesity (1.82 pp) for outright owners, and a less chance of obesity (2.85 pp) and smoking (3.03 pp) for renters. All of these relationships were statistically significant (p<0.05). Renters also experienced significantly decreased depression scores (-0.24), measured by the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale, associated with the same housing price changes. Discussion and Implications Housing price dynamics have significant health impacts, and renters are more sensitive to fluctuations in the housing market. Our study rules out the wealth effect as the mechanism through which changes in housing prices affect older adults’ health. Our findings may inform policies to promote older adults’ health by investing in local area amenities and improving socioeconomic conditions.

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The Private Housing Market Cyclical Price Dynamics

Journal of Economics and Public Finance ◽

10.22158/jepf.v6n2p173 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 6 (2) ◽

pp. p173

Author(s):

SUN, Jingbo ◽

HO, Kim Hin / David

Keyword(s):

Housing Market ◽

Housing Price ◽

Market Mechanism ◽

Price Dynamics ◽

Herd Behavior ◽

Momentum Strategy ◽

For Profit ◽

Long Run ◽

Private Housing ◽

Housing Price Dynamics

Two types of heterogeneous investors (momentum and disposition) form a unique difference model to interpret housing price dynamics. Three parameters are crucial: auto-correlation, the rate of mean reversion and the contemporaneous adjustment towards long-term equilibrium price. For Singapore, we examine the dynamic structures that oscillate and/or diverge from equilibrium. Disposition investors predominate although the interaction between momentum and disposition investors acts as a key determinant of private housing price dynamics for a given time in a specific market. Key implication is that Singapore’s private housing market is low risk, offering stable returns owing to virtually no divergence even in the speculative 1990s. The best way to invest is to consider the momentum strategy and avoid the herd behavior for profit sustainability. For policy-makers, the Singapore private housing market is over-damped in the long run. Predominating disposition investors contribute to the market mechanism, which automatically adjusts private housing market prices. It is imperative to relax government intervention in Singapore’s private housing market to enhance its efficiency.

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