scholarly journals Polynomial Chaos based on the parallelized ensemble Kalman filter to estimate precipitation states

10.19139/113 ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Luis Sanchez ◽  
Saba Infante ◽  
Jose Marcano ◽  
Victor Griffin
Keyword(s):  
Kalman Filter ◽  
Ensemble Kalman Filter ◽  
Polynomial Chaos

scholarly journals Towards predictive data-driven simulations of wildfire spread – Part I: Reduced-cost Ensemble Kalman Filter based on a Polynomial Chaos surrogate model for parameter estimation

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (11) ◽  
pp. 2951-2973 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. C. Rochoux ◽  
S. Ricci ◽  
D. Lucor ◽  
B. Cuenot ◽  
A. Trouvé
Keyword(s):  
Parameter Estimation ◽  
Kalman Filter ◽  
Ensemble Kalman Filter ◽  
Surrogate Model ◽  
Polynomial Chaos ◽  
Computational Cost ◽  
Fire Spread ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
Fire Front ◽  
Wildfire Spread

Abstract. This paper is the first part in a series of two articles and presents a data-driven wildfire simulator for forecasting wildfire spread scenarios, at a reduced computational cost that is consistent with operational systems. The prototype simulator features the following components: an Eulerian front propagation solver FIREFLY that adopts a regional-scale modeling viewpoint, treats wildfires as surface propagating fronts, and uses a description of the local rate of fire spread (ROS) as a function of environmental conditions based on Rothermel's model; a series of airborne-like observations of the fire front positions; and a data assimilation (DA) algorithm based on an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) for parameter estimation. This stochastic algorithm partly accounts for the nonlinearities between the input parameters of the semi-empirical ROS model and the fire front position, and is sequentially applied to provide a spatially uniform correction to wind and biomass fuel parameters as observations become available. A wildfire spread simulator combined with an ensemble-based DA algorithm is therefore a promising approach to reduce uncertainties in the forecast position of the fire front and to introduce a paradigm-shift in the wildfire emergency response. In order to reduce the computational cost of the EnKF algorithm, a surrogate model based on a polynomial chaos (PC) expansion is used in place of the forward model FIREFLY in the resulting hybrid PC-EnKF algorithm. The performance of EnKF and PC-EnKF is assessed on synthetically generated simple configurations of fire spread to provide valuable information and insight on the benefits of the PC-EnKF approach, as well as on a controlled grassland fire experiment. The results indicate that the proposed PC-EnKF algorithm features similar performance to the standard EnKF algorithm, but at a much reduced computational cost. In particular, the re-analysis and forecast skills of DA strongly relate to the spatial and temporal variability of the errors in the ROS model parameters.

scholarly journals Towards predictive data-driven simulations of wildfire spread – Part I: Reduced-cost Ensemble Kalman Filter based on a Polynomial Chaos surrogate model for parameter estimation

2014 ◽  
Vol 2 (5) ◽  
pp. 3289-3349 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. C. Rochoux ◽  
S. Ricci ◽  
D. Lucor ◽  
B. Cuenot ◽  
A. Trouvé
Keyword(s):  
Parameter Estimation ◽  
Kalman Filter ◽  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Ensemble Kalman Filter ◽  
Polynomial Chaos ◽  
Computational Cost ◽  
Fire Spread ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
Fire Front ◽  
Wildfire Spread

Abstract. This paper is the first part in a series of two articles and presents a data-driven wildfire simulator for forecasting wildfire spread scenarios, at a reduced computational cost that is consistent with operational systems. The prototype simulator features the following components: a level-set-based fire propagation solver FIREFLY that adopts a regional-scale modeling viewpoint, treats wildfires as surface propagating fronts, and uses a description of the local rate of fire spread (ROS) as a function of environmental conditions based on Rothermel's model; a series of airborne-like observations of the fire front positions; and a data assimilation algorithm based on an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) for parameter estimation. This stochastic algorithm partly accounts for the non-linearities between the input parameters of the semi-empirical ROS model and the fire front position, and is sequentially applied to provide a spatially-uniform correction to wind and biomass fuel parameters as observations become available. A wildfire spread simulator combined with an ensemble-based data assimilation algorithm is therefore a promising approach to reduce uncertainties in the forecast position of the fire front and to introduce a paradigm-shift in the wildfire emergency response. In order to reduce the computational cost of the EnKF algorithm, a surrogate model based on a polynomial chaos (PC) expansion is used in place of the forward model FIREFLY in the resulting hybrid PC-EnKF algorithm. The performance of EnKF and PC-EnKF is assessed on synthetically-generated simple configurations of fire spread to provide valuable information and insight on the benefits of the PC-EnKF approach as well as on a controlled grassland fire experiment. The results indicate that the proposed PC-EnKF algorithm features similar performance to the standard EnKF algorithm, but at a much reduced computational cost. In particular, the re-analysis and forecast skills of data assimilation strongly relate to the spatial and temporal variability of the errors in the ROS model parameters.

scholarly journals Assessing an ensemble Kalman filter inference of Manning’s n coefficient of an idealized tidal inlet against a polynomial chaos-based MCMC

2017 ◽  
Vol 67 (8) ◽  
pp. 1067-1094 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adil Siripatana ◽  
Talea Mayo ◽  
Ihab Sraj ◽  
Omar Knio ◽  
Clint Dawson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Kalman Filter ◽  
Ensemble Kalman Filter ◽  
Polynomial Chaos ◽  
Tidal Inlet ◽  
Manning’S N ◽  
Manning's N

Ensemble Kalman Filter for Out of Sequence Measurement Tracking

2012 ◽  
Vol 132 (10) ◽  
pp. 1617-1625
Author(s):  
Sirichai Pornsarayouth ◽  
Masaki Yamakita
Keyword(s):  
Kalman Filter ◽  
Ensemble Kalman Filter

Data assimilation with the weighted ensemble Kalman filter

2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicolas Papadakis ◽  
Etienne Mémin ◽  
Anne Cuzol ◽  
Nicolas Gengembre
Keyword(s):  
Kalman Filter ◽  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Ensemble Kalman Filter

scholarly journals Assimilation of D-InSAR snow depth data by an ensemble Kalman filter

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (6) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jinming Yang ◽  
Chengzhi Li
Keyword(s):  
Remote Sensing ◽  
Kalman Filter ◽  
Water Resource ◽  
Ensemble Kalman Filter ◽  
Snow Depth ◽  
Resource Assessment ◽  
Measured Data ◽  
Hydrological Process ◽  
Depth Data ◽  
Water Resource Assessment

AbstractSnow depth mirrors regional climate change and is a vital parameter for medium- and long-term numerical climate prediction, numerical simulation of land-surface hydrological process, and water resource assessment. However, the quality of the available snow depth products retrieved from remote sensing is inevitably affected by cloud and mountain shadow, and the spatiotemporal resolution of the snow depth data cannot meet the need of hydrological research and decision-making assistance. Therefore, a method to enhance the accuracy of snow depth data is urgently required. In the present study, three kinds of snow depth data which included the D-InSAR data retrieved from the remote sensing images of Sentinel-1 synthetic aperture radar, the automatically measured data using ultrasonic snow depth detectors, and the manually measured data were assimilated based on ensemble Kalman filter. The assimilated snow depth data were spatiotemporally consecutive and integrated. Under the constraint of the measured data, the accuracy of the assimilated snow depth data was higher and met the need of subsequent research. The development of ultrasonic snow depth detector and the application of D-InSAR technology in snow depth inversion had greatly alleviated the insufficiency of snow depth data in types and quantity. At the same time, the assimilation of multi-source snow depth data by ensemble Kalman filter also provides high-precision data to support remote sensing hydrological research, water resource assessment, and snow disaster prevention and control program.

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