Comparing niche- and process-based models to reduce prediction uncertainty in species range shifts under climate change

Ecology ◽  
2009 ◽  
Vol 90 (5) ◽  
pp. 1301-1313 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xavier Morin ◽  
Wilfried Thuiller
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Species Range ◽  
Range Shifts ◽  
Prediction Uncertainty ◽  
Process Based Models

scholarly journals A metapopulation approach to predict species range shifts under different climate change and landscape connectivity scenarios

2017 ◽  
Vol 359 ◽  
pp. 406-414 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frederico Mestre ◽  
Benjamin B. Risk ◽  
António Mira ◽  
Pedro Beja ◽  
Ricardo Pita
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Landscape Connectivity ◽  
Species Range ◽  
Range Shifts

scholarly journals Simulating Growth and Competition on Wet and Waterlogged Soils in a Forest Landscape Model

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric J. Gustafson ◽  
Brian R. Miranda ◽  
Anatoly Z. Shvidenko ◽  
Brian R. Sturtevant
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Tree Growth ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Species Range ◽  
Range Shifts ◽  
Forest Landscape ◽  
Landscape Model ◽  
Time Step ◽  
Forest Landscape Model ◽  
Waterlogged Soils

Changes in CO2 concentration and climate are likely to alter disturbance regimes and competitive outcomes among tree species, which ultimately can result in shifts of species and biome boundaries. Such changes are already evident in high latitude forests, where waterlogged soils produced by topography, surficial geology, and permafrost are an important driver of forest dynamics. Predicting such effects under the novel conditions of the future requires models with direct and mechanistic links of abiotic drivers to growth and competition. We enhanced such a forest landscape model (PnET-Succession in LANDIS-II) to allow simulation of waterlogged soils and their effects on tree growth and competition. We formally tested how these modifications alter water balance on wetland and permafrost sites, and their effect on tree growth and competition. We applied the model to evaluate its promise for mechanistically simulating species range expansion and contraction under climate change across a latitudinal gradient in Siberian Russia. We found that higher emissions scenarios permitted range expansions that were quicker and allowed a greater diversity of invading species, especially at the highest latitudes, and that disturbance hastened range shifts by overcoming the natural inertia of established ecological communities. The primary driver of range advances to the north was altered hydrology related to thawing permafrost, followed by temperature effects on growth. Range contractions from the south (extirpations) were slower and less tied to emissions or latitude, and were driven by inability to compete with invaders, or disturbance. An important non-intuitive result was that some extant species were killed off by extreme cold events projected under climate change as greater weather extremes occurred over the next 30 years, and this had important effects on subsequent successional trajectories. The mechanistic linkages between climate and soil water dynamics in this forest landscape model produced tight links between climate inputs, physiology of vegetation, and soils at a monthly time step. The updated modeling system can produce high quality projections of climate impacts on forest species range shifts by accounting for the interacting effects of CO2 concentration, climate (including longer growing seasons), seed dispersal, disturbance, and soil hydrologic properties.

scholarly journals Quantifying Species' Range Shifts in Relation to Climate Change: A Case Study of Abies spp. in China

PLoS ONE ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 6 (8) ◽  
pp. e23115 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaojun Kou ◽  
Qin Li ◽  
Shirong Liu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Species Range ◽  
Range Shifts

scholarly journals The effects of phenotypic plasticity and local adaptation on forecasts of species range shifts under climate change

2014 ◽  
Vol 17 (11) ◽  
pp. 1351-1364 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fernando Valladares ◽  
Silvia Matesanz ◽  
François Guilhaumon ◽  
Miguel B. Araújo ◽  
Luis Balaguer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Phenotypic Plasticity ◽  
Local Adaptation ◽  
Species Range ◽  
Range Shifts

scholarly journals A process to support species conservation planning and climate change readiness in protected areas

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicole Angeli ◽  
Javier Otegui ◽  
Margot Wood ◽  
Emma P. Gomez-Ruiz
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Protected Areas ◽  
Conservation Planning ◽  
Species Interactions ◽  
Species Range ◽  
Range Shifts ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Future Scenarios ◽  
Climate Scenarios

Global change will causes species range shifts, affecting species interactions. The conservation implications of species range shifts are widely unknown. Through forming an ecology-bioinformatics partnership at the National Evolutionary Synthesis Center-Encyclopedia of Life-Biodiversity Heritage Library Research Sprint, we developed an analytical pipeline to test whether global trends are forcing shifts of mutually dependent species in different spatial directions. We calculated potential overlap between dependent species across climate scenarios within protected areas. We selected the Great Green Macaw (Ara ambiguus) and its nesting host tree the Giant Almendro (Dipteryx panamensis) as a proof-of-concept species pair that will be affected by range shifts. We demonstrate with modeling that the Great Green Macaw will lose approximately 64.0% of suitable habitat in future scenarios, while the Giant Almendro will lose 59.7% of suitable habitat. Species habitat overlaps across 85.3 % of its currently predicted distribution and 69.07% of the remaining habitat predicted in future scenarios. After accounting for spatially explicit protected areas networks, only 20.3% and 40.2 % of remaining habitat persists within protected areas across climate scenarios for the Almendro and Macaw, respectively, and 19.9 % of that habitat overlaps between the species. Currently, we are conducting a literature review to select and expand our list of species for use in the pipeline to detect trends for climate readiness planning in protected areas networks. The analytical pipeline will produce habitat suitability maps for multiple climate scenarios based on current distributions, and these maps will potentially be embedded into the Encyclopedia of Life as free, downloadable files. This is just one of several broader impact products from the research. This work demonstrates that modeling the future distribution of species is limited by biotic interactions and conservation planning should account for climate change scenarios.

scholarly journals A process to support species conservation planning and climate change readiness in protected areas

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicole F. Angeli ◽  
Javier Otegui ◽  
Margot Wood ◽  
Emma P. Gomez-Ruiz
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Protected Areas ◽  
Conservation Planning ◽  
Species Interactions ◽  
Species Range ◽  
Range Shifts ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Future Scenarios ◽  
Climate Scenarios

Global change will causes species range shifts, affecting species interactions. The conservation implications of species range shifts are widely unknown. Through forming an ecology-bioinformatics partnership at the National Evolutionary Synthesis Center-Encyclopedia of Life-Biodiversity Heritage Library Research Sprint, we developed an analytical pipeline to test whether global trends are forcing shifts of mutually dependent species in different spatial directions. We calculated potential overlap between dependent species across climate scenarios within protected areas. We selected the Great Green Macaw (Ara ambiguus) and its nesting host tree the Giant Almendro (Dipteryx panamensis) as a proof-of-concept species pair that will be affected by range shifts. We demonstrate with modeling that the Great Green Macaw will lose approximately 64.0% of suitable habitat in future scenarios, while the Giant Almendro will lose 59.7% of suitable habitat. Species habitat overlaps across 85.3 % of its currently predicted distribution and 69.07% of the remaining habitat predicted in future scenarios. After accounting for spatially explicit protected areas networks, only 20.3% and 40.2 % of remaining habitat persists within protected areas across climate scenarios for the Almendro and Macaw, respectively, and 19.9 % of that habitat overlaps between the species. Currently, we are conducting a literature review to select and expand our list of species for use in the pipeline to detect trends for climate readiness planning in protected areas networks. The analytical pipeline will produce habitat suitability maps for multiple climate scenarios based on current distributions, and these maps will potentially be embedded into the Encyclopedia of Life as free, downloadable files. This is just one of several broader impact products from the research. This work demonstrates that modeling the future distribution of species is limited by biotic interactions and conservation planning should account for climate change scenarios.

scholarly journals Broadening Predictive Understanding of Species’ Range Responses to Climate Change: The Case of Aloidendron dichotomum

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lara P. Brodie ◽  
Kerry-Anne Grey ◽  
Jacqueline M. Bishop ◽  
Guy F. Midgley
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Species Distribution ◽  
Transition Period ◽  
Strong Support ◽  
Species Range ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
Range Shifts ◽  
Holocene Climate ◽  
Range Dynamics ◽  
Climate Transition

Concerns have been raised about attribution of species range shifts to anthropogenic climate change. Species paleo-range projections are emerging as a means to broaden understanding of range shifts and could be applied to assist in attribution. Apparent recent range contraction in the Quiver Tree (Aloidendron dichotomum (Masson) Klopper and Gideon F.Sm) has been attributed to anthropogenic climate change, but this has been challenged. We simulated the paleo- and future geographic range of A. dichotomum under changing climate using species distribution models (SDMs) to provide a broader perspective on its range dynamics. Ensemble modelling of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), mid-Holocene, current, and projected 2070 time periods simulates a paleo-historical poleward expansion of suitable bioclimatic space for this species under natural climate change post-LGM, and projects an eastward shift towards 2070. During the LGM, suitable bioclimatic space for A. dichotomum was simulated to be restricted to the equatorward part of its current range. During the Pleistocene/mid-Holocene climate transition period, the species’ range is predicted to have expanded significantly polewards at an average rate of 0.4 km per decade, assuming constant tracking of its optimal climatic niche. By 2070, suitable bioclimatic space is projected to expand further eastward into the summer rainfall region of South Africa, and contract in its equatorward reaches. Simulated post-LGM shifts roughly match expectations based on preliminary phylogenetic information, further supporting the attribution of current population declines to anthropogenic climate change drivers. Equatorward populations are required to migrate south-eastwards at a rate roughly 15 times faster than that calculated for the LGM/mid-Holocene climate transition period to avoid local extirpation. A preliminary analysis of range-wide genetic variation reveals a cline of variation, with generally higher levels in the central and more northerly part of the species distribution, as expected from the proposed paleo-range of the species. A more detailed analysis of the species’ phylogeographic history could be used to test the proposed paleo-range dynamics presented here, and if confirmed, would provide strong support for the use of this species as an indicator of anthropogenic climate change and a powerful case study for testing the implementation of conservation actions.

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