scholarly journals Factors determining the forecast errors of market analysts for fiscal variables in Brazil

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-22
Author(s):  
Francisca Aparecida de Souza ◽  
César Augusto Tibúrcio Silva ◽  
Karla Roberta Castro Pinheiro Alves
Keyword(s):  
Financial Management ◽  
Forecast Error ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Forecast Errors ◽  
Forecasting Error ◽  
Public Financial Management ◽  
Net Revenue ◽  
Temporal Horizon ◽  
Substantial Change

The objective of this study is to investigate determinant factors the forecast errors of market analysts for Brazilian fiscal variables. The data for conducting the research was obtained in the Prisma Fiscal, the Ministry of Economy's system of collecting and disclosure of market expectations for fiscal variables. The data collected refer to collection, net revenue and total expenditure, in the period from November 2015 to December 2018. The Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and z were used to measure the quality of the market analysts' forecast. The use of the z value as a measure of the forecast error is one of the contributions of this research. Among the results obtained, the hypothesis that the temporal horizon interferes in the quality of the forecast was not rejected for horizons of one and two years; the dispersion of forecasts did not show a substantial change; and the optimistic bias hypothesis was not confirmed. It can be concluded that for this sample the temporality is a determinant factor of the forecast error of the market analysts for fiscal variables. The research contributes to the discussion about forecasting error in the areas of Public Financial Management and Public Accounting.

scholarly journals 5.6. QUALITY ASSESSMENT OF FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT IN THE public sector: METHODICAL ASPECTS

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Л.И. Ткаченко
Keyword(s):  
Public Finance ◽  
Public Sector ◽  
Quality Assessment ◽  
Financial Management ◽  
Federal Budget ◽  
Operational Efficiency ◽  
The Public ◽  
Public Financial Management ◽  
Methodological Aspects

В статье обоснована актуальность оценки качества управления государственными финансами с целью повышения эффективности их использования. Проанализировано развитие методики оценки качества финансового менеджмента главными администраторами средств федерального бюджета за период с 2008 по 2019 гг. Исследованы методические аспекты определения итоговой оценки качества финансового менеджмента. В частности, проанализирован расчет некоторых показателей операционной эффективности расходов бюджета и дана их интерпретация. Представлен авторский взгляд на расчет и интерпретацию проанализированных показателей. The author in this article substantiates the relevance of assessing the quality of public financial management in order to increase the efficiency of use of public finance. The development of the methodology for assessing the quality of financial management by the chief administrators of the federal budget for the period from 2008 to 2019 is analyzed. Methodological aspects of determining the final assessment of the quality of financial management are investigated. In particular, it analyzes the calculation of some indicators of the operational efficiency of budget expenditures and gives their interpretation. The author's view on the calculation and interpretation of the analyzed indicators is presented.

Public Financial Management and Systems of Accountability in Sub-National Governance in Developing Economies

2017 ◽  
pp. 193-217
Author(s):  
Christopher Boachie
Keyword(s):  
Financial Management ◽  
Public Services ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Local Institutions ◽  
Fiscal Management ◽  
Accountability System ◽  
Public Financial Management ◽  
Subnational Government ◽  
International Donors

There is an increasing focus worldwide on improving the quality of public financial management, with many countries in both the developed and the developing world making important and impressive achievements in strengthening public financial management and governance. This chapter explores how subnational government financial management can be improved and capacity strengthened in developing economies. Using Ghana's subnational financial management and accountability system as illustration, this study shows that improving public financial management leads to better quality of public services. The subnational government landscape is rapidly changing, with increasing emphasis on fiscal management and discipline, prioritization of expenditure, and value for money. It is even more important that international donors, governments, and national and local institutions, including regulators and professional accountancy bodies, work together in partnership to achieve long-lasting improvements, transparency, and accountability in public financial management.

Evaluation of near-surface temperature forecasts against super-site observations

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Polly Schmederer ◽  
Irina Sandu ◽  
Thomas Haiden ◽  
Anton Beljaars ◽  
Martin Leutbecher ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Forecast Error ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Forecast Errors ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Surface Weather ◽  
Medium Range ◽  
Weather Parameters ◽  
Temperature Errors

<p><span><strong>ECMWF’s medium-range forecasts of near-surface weather parameters, such as 2 m temperature, humidity and 10 m wind speed, have become more skilful over the years, following the trend of improvements in the forecast skill of upper-air fields. However, they are still affected by systematic errors which have proved difficult to eliminate. Systematic forecast errors in temperature and humidity near the surface can be better understood by also examining errors higher up in the atmospheric boundary layer and in the soil. Meteorological observatories, also known as super-sites, provide long-term observational records of such vertical profiles. ECMWF started to use data from super-sites more systematically to evaluate the quality of forecasts in the lowest part of the atmosphere (up to 100m) and in the soil, in an attempt to disentangle sources of forecast error in near-surface weather parameters. Findings for 2-metre temperature errors in ECMWF forecasts at European super-sites suggest that the errors are partly the result of the model exchanging too much energy between the atmosphere and the land. However, the influence of other factors, such as errors resulting from the representation of vegetation in semi-arid areas and from small-scale variations in vegetation and soil type near measurement stations, mean that it is difficult to adjust the energy exchange in a way which leads to an overall error reduction on the European scale. </strong></span></p>

scholarly journals Analysis of public expenditure management in terms of respect for economic, social and cultural rights in the Republic of Moldova

Economica ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 7-23
Author(s):  
Angela Secrieru ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Management ◽  
Public Expenditure ◽  
Public Expenditures ◽  
Fiscal Discipline ◽  
Republic Of Moldova ◽  
Cultural Rights ◽  
Public Financial Management ◽  
The Republic ◽  
Public Expenditure Management

To a great extent, respecting human rights in the Republic of Moldova is affected by unsatisfactory evolution of public expenditures and the way the latter are managed. The quality of public expenditure management, with an impact on respecting economic, social and cultural rights (ESCR) is evaluated through the prism of basic objectives of public financial management, namely the following: maintaining strict financial discipline, allocating public financial resources in conformity with government’s priorities, efficient provision of public services. The central public administration and local public administrations from the Republic of Moldova are relatively more successful in consolidating fiscal discipline than in providing an efficient use of public expenditure in conformity with strategic priorities. The research argues the positive effect which can be made by improvement of public expenditure management on respecting ESCR in the Republic of Moldova.

Public Financial Management and Systems of Accountability in Sub-National Governance in Developing Economies

2020 ◽  
pp. 1623-1647
Author(s):  
Christopher Boachie
Keyword(s):  
Financial Management ◽  
Public Services ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Local Institutions ◽  
Fiscal Management ◽  
Accountability System ◽  
Public Financial Management ◽  
Subnational Government ◽  
International Donors

There is an increasing focus worldwide on improving the quality of public financial management, with many countries in both the developed and the developing world making important and impressive achievements in strengthening public financial management and governance. This chapter explores how subnational government financial management can be improved and capacity strengthened in developing economies. Using Ghana's subnational financial management and accountability system as illustration, this study shows that improving public financial management leads to better quality of public services. The subnational government landscape is rapidly changing, with increasing emphasis on fiscal management and discipline, prioritization of expenditure, and value for money. It is even more important that international donors, governments, and national and local institutions, including regulators and professional accountancy bodies, work together in partnership to achieve long-lasting improvements, transparency, and accountability in public financial management.

scholarly journals Do Financial Markets Value Quality of Fiscal Governance?

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (218) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kady Keita ◽  
Gene Leon ◽  
Frederico Lima
Keyword(s):  
Financial Management ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Credit Rating ◽  
Market Access ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Debt Management ◽  
External Finance ◽  
Sovereign Bonds ◽  
Public Financial Management

We examine the link between the quality of fiscal governance and access to market-based external finance. Stronger fiscal governance is associated with improvements in several indicators of market access, including a higher likelihood of issuing sovereign bonds and having a sovereign credit rating, receiving stronger ratings, and obtaining lower spreads. Using the more granular information on quality of fiscal governance from Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability (PEFA) assessments for 89 emerging and developing economies, we find that similar indicators of market access are correlated with sound public financial management practices, especially those that improve budget transparency and reporting, debt management, and fiscal strategy.

Fiscal Rules and the Behavior of Public Investment in Costa Rica and Panama: Towards Growth-Friendly Fiscal Policy?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eliécer Arce ◽  
Edgar A. Robles
Keyword(s):  
Costa Rica ◽  
Financial Management ◽  
Capital Expenditure ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Fiscal Rules ◽  
Public Financial Management ◽  
Rule Compliance ◽  
Pile Up ◽  
Fiscal Rule

This paper aims to provide evidence on the effects of fiscal rules on public investment, fiscal results and growth in Costa Rica and Panama. First, we find that the budget formulation process and the political economy behind the adoption and compliance of fiscal rules explain that Panama has a bias to create and sequentially pile up rules, while Costa Rica has a tendency not to comply with them. Second, a retrospective analysis of the 2018 fiscal rules in both nations finds asymmetric effects on the fiscal results. In Panama it is difficult to separate the effect of fiscal rule designs on public investment; and, in Costa Rica, the application of the fiscal rule will decrease public investment, if the debt to GDP ratio exceeds 60 percent and current expenditure crowds out capital expenditure. Two lessons emerge. First, an effective fiscal rule compliance requires time consistent institutions, solid monitoring, enforcement schemes and improving the quality of public financial management systems. Second, it is necessary to review the design of fiscal rules in both countries to ensure they are investment and growth friendly.

scholarly journals PUBLIC FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT AND CORRUPTION IN INDONESIA: A PANEL COINTEGRATION AND CAUSALITY ANALYSIS

2020 ◽  
Vol 34 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sugeng Triwibowo
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Financial Management ◽  
Panel Cointegration ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
Financial Reforms ◽  
Public Financial Management ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Government

Introduction: This paper aims to examine the relationship between the quality of public financial management and corruption in Indonesia. Background Problems: Despite the impressive progress on the quality of public financial management (PFM) after the financial reforms, Indonesia is still struggling to combat corruption. This raises the question of the effectiveness of the public financial reforms that have been carried out in support of the eradication of corruption. Novelty: This study found empirical evidence of a significant long-run and causal relationship between the quality of public financial management and corruption. Research Methods: This study employs panel cointegration and causality analysis with panel data from the Corruption Perception Index (CPI), and audit opinions for the period from 2006 to 2017. Findings/Results: This study found empirical evidence of the existence of a long-run relationship between the quality of public financial management and corruption and can verify the significant causal relationship between them. In the long run, sound public financial management could significantly encourage clean government. Conclusion: The Government of Indonesia (GoI) should continue its commitment to improve the management of public finances. Meanwhile, the Supreme Audit Institution (SAI)[A1]  is expected to strengthen its role to prevent and detect corruption, and to continuously enhance its methods and capacity to improve the execution of its duties and authority.

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