scholarly journals An Agent-Based Approach to Integrated Assessment Modelling of Climate Change

2020 ◽  
Vol 23 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcin Czupryna ◽  
Christian Franzke ◽  
Sascha Hokamp ◽  
Jürgen Scheffran
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Integrated Assessment ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Integrated Assessment Modelling

scholarly journals An integrated assessment modelling framework for uncertainty studies in global and regional climate change: the MIT IGSM-CAM (version 1.0)

2013 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 2213-2248 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Monier ◽  
J. R. Scott ◽  
A. P. Sokolov ◽  
C. E. Forest ◽  
C. A. Schlosser
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Integrated Assessment ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
System Model ◽  
Climate Parameters ◽  
Modelling Framework ◽  
Integrated Assessment Modelling ◽  
Emissions Scenarios

Abstract. This paper describes an integrated assessment modelling framework for uncertainty studies in global and regional climate change. In this framework, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model (IGSM), an integrated assessment model that couples an earth system model of intermediate complexity to a human activity model, is linked to the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). Since the MIT IGSM-CAM framework (version 1.0) incorporates a human activity model, it is possible to analyse uncertainties in emissions resulting from both uncertainties in the economic model parameters and uncertainty in future climate policies. Another major feature is the flexibility to vary key climate parameters controlling the climate system response: climate sensitivity, net aerosol forcing and ocean heat uptake rate. Thus, the IGSM-CAM is a computationally efficient framework to explore the uncertainty in future global and regional climate change associated with uncertainty in the climate response and projected emissions. This study presents 21st century simulations based on two emissions scenarios (unconstrained scenario and stabilization scenario at 660 ppm CO2-equivalent) and three sets of climate parameters. The chosen climate parameters provide a good approximation for the median, and the 5th and 95th percentiles of the probability distribution of 21st century global climate change. As such, this study presents new estimates of the 90% probability interval of regional climate change for different emissions scenarios. These results underscore the large uncertainty in regional climate change resulting from uncertainty in climate parameters and emissions, especially when it comes to changes in precipitation.

scholarly journals The $10 trillion value of better information about the transient climate response

2015 ◽  
Vol 373 (2054) ◽  
pp. 20140429 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chris Hope
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Integrated Assessment ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Integrated Assessment Model ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Climate Response ◽  
Transient Climate Response ◽  
Uncertainty Range ◽  
Integrated Assessment Modelling ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

How much is better information about climate change worth? Here, I use PAGE09, a probabilistic integrated assessment model, to find the optimal paths of CO 2 emissions over time and to calculate the value of better information about one aspect of climate change, the transient climate response (TCR). Approximately halving the uncertainty range for TCR has a net present value of about $10.3 trillion (year 2005 US$) if accomplished in time for emissions to be adjusted in 2020, falling to $9.7 trillion if accomplished by 2030. Probabilistic integrated assessment modelling is the only method we have for making estimates like these for the value of better information about the science and impacts of climate change.

Climate change and green transitions in an agent-based integrated assessment model

2020 ◽  
Vol 153 ◽  
pp. 119806 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Lamperti ◽  
G. Dosi ◽  
M. Napoletano ◽  
A. Roventini ◽  
A. Sapio
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Integrated Assessment ◽  
Integrated Assessment Model ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Agent Based
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