scholarly journals Enabling Probabilistic Risk Assessment Instruction During The Conceptual Design Phase: Function Based Risk Analysis

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katie Grantham Lough ◽  
Robert Stone
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Conceptual Design ◽  
Phase Function ◽  
Probabilistic Risk Assessment ◽  
Design Phase ◽  
Conceptual Design Phase ◽  
Probabilistic Risk

Applying Function-Based Failure Propagation in Conceptual Design

2007 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Krus ◽  
Katie Grantham Lough
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Product Design ◽  
Conceptual Design ◽  
Functional Model ◽  
Thermal Control ◽  
Design Phase ◽  
Historical Knowledge ◽  
Conceptual Design Phase ◽  
Failure Propagation ◽  
Potential Risks

When designing a product, the earlier the potential risks can be identified, the more costs can be saved, as it is easier to modify a design in its early stages. Several methods exist to analyze the risk in a system, but all require a mature design. However, by applying the concept of “common interfaces” to a functional model and utilizing a historical knowledge base, it is possible to analyze chains of failures during the conceptual phase of product design. This paper presents a method based on these “common interfaces” to be used in conjunction with other methods such as Risk in Early Design in order to allow a more complete risk analysis during the conceptual design phase. Finally, application of this method is demonstrated in a design setting by applying it to a thermal control subsystem.

Function-based failure propagation for conceptual design

2009 ◽  
Vol 23 (4) ◽  
pp. 409-426 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Krus ◽  
Katie Grantham Lough
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Product Design ◽  
Conceptual Design ◽  
Functional Model ◽  
Thermal Control ◽  
Design Phase ◽  
Historical Knowledge ◽  
Conceptual Design Phase ◽  
Failure Propagation ◽  
Potential Risks

AbstractWhen designing a product, the earlier the potential risks can be identified, the more costs can be saved, as it is easier to modify a design in its early stages. Several methods exist to analyze the risk in a system, but all require a mature design. However, by applying the concept of “common interfaces” to a functional model and utilizing a historical knowledge base, it is possible to analyze chains of failures during the conceptual phase of product design. This paper presents a method based on these common interfaces to be used in conjunction with other methods such as risk in early design to allow a more complete risk analysis during the conceptual design phase. Finally, application of this method is demonstrated in a design setting by applying it to a thermal control subsystem.

Detailed Risk Analysis for Failure Prevention in Conceptual Design: RED (Risk in Early Design) Based Probabilistic Risk Assessments

2007 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katie Grantham Lough
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Conceptual Design ◽  
Design Process ◽  
Consumer Product ◽  
Tree Analysis ◽  
Early Design ◽  
Failure Prevention ◽  
Physical Form ◽  
Probabilistic Risk

Avoiding product recalls and failures is a must for companies to remain successful in the consumer product industry. Large numbers of failed products result in significant profit losses do to repair or replacement costs as well as untraceable costs of reputation damage among customer bases. Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is key to preventing product failures. When risks are adequately identified and assessed the potential product failures can be mitigated and save lives as well as company profit. Risk mitigation is more effective the earlier it can be applied in the design process; therefore, the identification and assessment of risk through PRA techniques is most beneficial to the company when employed early in the design process. This paper presents new techniques for performing four common PRAs, preliminary hazards analysis (PHA), failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA), fault tree analysis (FTA), and event tree analysis (ETA), during the conceptual phase of design, when products have yet to assume a physical form. The backbone for the application of these PRA techniques during the conceptual design phase is the Risk in Early Design (RED) Method. RED generates a listing of potential product risk based on historical failure occurrences. These risks are categorized by function, which enables this preliminary risk assessment to be performed during conceptual design. A risk analysis is performed for a bicycle that demonstrates the powerful failure prevention ability of RED and PRA during conceptual product design with a Consumer Product Safety Commission recall.

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