Two-Sided Market Power in Firm-to-Firm Trade
Firms in global value chains (GVCs) are granular and exert bargaining power over the terms of trade. We show that these features are crucial to understanding the well-established variation in prices and pass-through across importers and exporters. We develop a novel theory of prices in GVCs, which tractably nests a wide range of bilateral concentration and bargaining power configurations. We test and evaluate the models predictions using a novel dataset merging transaction-level U.S. import data with balance sheet data for both U.S. importers and foreign exporters. Our pricing framework enhances traditional frameworks in the literature in accurately predicting price changes following a tariff shock. The results shed light on the role of firms in determining the tariff pass-through onto import prices.