scholarly journals External Shocks and FX Intervention Policy in Emerging Economies

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alex Carrasco ◽  
David Florián Hoyle
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Exchange Rate Regime ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Agency Problem ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Policy Instrument ◽  
External Shocks ◽  
Intervention Policy

This paper discusses the role of sterilized foreign exchange (FX) interventions as a monetary policy instrument for emerging market economies in response to external shocks. We develop a model for a commodity-exporting small open economy in which FX intervention is considered as a balance sheet policy induced by a financial friction in the form of an agency problem between banks and their creditors. The severity of banks agency problem depends directly on a bank-level measure of currency mismatch. Endogenous deviations from the standard UIP condition arise at equilibrium. In this context, FX interventions moderate the response of financial and macroeconomic variables to external shocks by leaning against the wind with respect to real exchange rate pressures. Our quantitative results indicate that, conditional on external shocks, the FX intervention policy successfully reduces credit, investment, and output volatility, along with substantial welfare gains when compared to a free-floating exchange rate regime. Finally, we explore distinct generalizations of the model that eliminate the presence of endogenous UIP deviations. In those cases, FX intervention operations are considerably less effective for the aggregate equilibrium.

scholarly journals A Theory of Foreign Exchange Interventions

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sebastián Fanelli ◽  
Ludwig Straub
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Bond Markets ◽  
Pecuniary Externality ◽  
Optimal Intervention ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Intervention Policy

Abstract We study a real small open economy with two key ingredients (1) partial segmentation of home and foreign bond markets and (2) a pecuniary externality that makes the real exchange rate excessively volatile in response to capital flows. Partial segmentation implies that, by intervening in the bond markets, the central bank can affect the exchange rate and the spread between home- and foreign-bond yields. Such interventions allow the central bank to address the pecuniary externality, but they are also costly, as foreigners make carry trade profits. We analytically characterize the optimal intervention policy that solves this trade-off: (1) the optimal policy leans against the wind, stabilizing the exchange rate; (2) it involves smooth spreads but allows exchange rates to jump; (3) it partly relies on “forward guidance,” with non-zero interventions even after the shock has subsided; (4) it requires credibility, in that central banks do not intervene without commitment. Finally, we shed light on the global consequences of widespread interventions, using a multi-country extension of our model. We find that, left to themselves, countries over-accumulate reserves, reducing welfare and leading to inefficiently low world interest rates.

CHARACTERIZING THE MONETARY TRANSMISSION MECHANISM IN A SMALL OPEN ECONOMY: THE CASE OF MALAYSIA

2003 ◽  
Vol 48 (02) ◽  
pp. 113-134 ◽  
Author(s):  
WEE BENG GAN ◽  
LEE YING SOON
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Policy Instrument ◽  
Transmission Mechanism ◽  
Monetary Transmission ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
Monetary Transmission Mechanism

This paper evaluates the monetary policy response of Malaysia's central bank and the nature of monetary transmission mechanism in the 1990s when the exchange rate was on a managed float and the capital account was open. Structural vector autogression analysis is employed to evaluate how the central bank sets short term interest rates taking into consideration the constraints faced in adjusting the policy instrument to shocks to the economy. The impulse response functions and the variance decomposition indicate that the central bank preferred to use foreign exchange intervention rather than interest rate to stabilize the ringgit exchange rate. The results suggest that a sustained high level of interest rates would have caused a prolonged and deep contraction in output during the East Asian financial crisis.

scholarly journals Dynamic Effects of Changes in the Exchange Rate System

2016 ◽  
Vol 33 (1) ◽  
pp. 111-161 ◽  
Author(s):  
Naoyuki Yoshino ◽  
Sahoko Kaji ◽  
Tamon Asonuma
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Transition Period ◽  
Exchange Rate Regime ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Rate System ◽  
Transition Analysis ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic ◽  
The Exchange Rate

We propose a new dynamic transition analysis on the basis of a small open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. Our proposed analysis differs from existing static and conventional dynamic analyses in that shifts from a fixed exchange rate regime to a basket peg or a floating regime are explicitly explored. We apply quantitative analysis, using data from the People's Republic of China and Thailand, and find that both economies would be better off shifting from a dollar peg to a basket peg or a floating regime over the long run. Furthermore, the longer the transition period, the greater the benefits of shifting to a basket peg regime from a dollar peg regime owing to limited volatility in interest rates. Regarding sudden shifts to a desired regime, the welfare gains are larger under a shift to a basket peg if the exchange rate fluctuates significantly.

A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES AND MACRO-INSTABILITIES IN THE TWIN ECONOMIES OF SINGAPORE AND HONG KONG

2007 ◽  
Vol 52 (01) ◽  
pp. 93-116 ◽  
Author(s):  
YUE MA ◽  
Y. Y. KUEH ◽  
RAYMOND C. W. NG
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Exchange Rate Regime ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Prototype Model ◽  
Internal Factors ◽  
Monetary Authorities ◽  
The Stability ◽  
The One

Based on a small, open-economy IS-LM prototype model, this paper examines the sources of macroeconomic instabilities in Hong Kong and Singapore operating under two different currency board arrangements. The empirical findings suggest that in general, both external and internal factors contribute to the macroeconomic volatilities observed in the two economies. There is evidence of a tradeoff between exchange rate and interest rate targeting for the stability of money supply in Singapore. Our findings have important implications for Mainland China's monetary authorities in the transition from a hard-peg exchange rate regime like Hong Kong to a basket-link system like the one in Singapore.

scholarly journals Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity and the Case for Temporary Inflation in the Eurozone

2013 ◽  
Vol 27 (3) ◽  
pp. 193-212 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé ◽  
Martín Uribe
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Full Employment ◽  
Exchange Rate Regime ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Wage Rigidity ◽  
Nominal Wage ◽  
Fixed Exchange Rate ◽  
Nominal Wage Rigidity ◽  
Unemployment Problem

Since the onset of the Great Recession in peripheral Europe, nominal hourly wages have not fallen from the high levels they had reached during the boom years—this in spite of widespread increases in unemployment. This observation evokes a well-known narrative in which nominal downward wage rigidity is at the center of the current unemployment problem. We embed downward nominal wage rigidity into a small open economy with tradable and nontradable goods and a fixed exchange-rate regime. In this model, negative external shocks cause involuntary unemployment. We analyze a number of national and supranational policy options for alleviating the unemployment problem caused by the combination of downward nominal wage rigidity and a fixed exchange-rate regime. We argue that, in spite of the existence of a battery of domestic policies that could be effective in solving the unemployment problem, it is unlikely that a solution will come from within national borders. This leaves supranational monetary stimulus as the most compelling avenue out of the crisis. Our model predicts that full employment in peripheral Europe could be restored by raising the euro area annual rate of inflation to about 4 percent for the next five years.

scholarly journals Financial Markets, External Shocks and Policy Responses: The Case of Brazil 2001

2003 ◽  
Vol 23 (4) ◽  
pp. 547-562
Author(s):  
LAURO VIEIRA DE FARIA
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Practical Importance ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Negative Events ◽  
External Shocks ◽  
Policy Responses ◽  
Brazilian Government ◽  
Exchange Rate Overshooting

ABSTRACT This paper evaluates the macroeconomic response of the Brazilian government in 2001 following the emergence of sharp negative events in both the external and internal sectors with particular focus on monetary and exchange rate policies. It points out that the kind of macroeconomic reaction depicted by the standard Mundell-Fleming model is of little practical importance in a small open economy engulfed in dollar denominated debts and experiencing a confidence crisis like Brazil’s. The Brazilian economy operates as if there were some sorts of ceilings for the exchange rate and for interest rates, in a clear departure from the assumptions embodied in the “pure” model. In this kind of environment another set of actions is required to fight a dangerous exchange rate overshooting and that is proven by the events of 2001. Whilst the actions taken by the monetary authorities proved successful at that moment the paper shows that they came with sizeable real and financial costs as collateral. Therefore, the paper argues in favour of another set of macroeconomic responses which should have been preferred if we were to avoid such costs.

scholarly journals A Welfare Based Approach for choosing the Inflation Targeting and the Exchange Regime in Tunisia

2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (12) ◽  
pp. 919-932
Author(s):  
Abdelli Soulaima
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Exchange Rate Regime ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Flexible Exchange Rate ◽  
Stochastic Dynamic ◽  
Consumer Prices ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Impact

The inflation targeting is considered as an attractive monetary policy strategy in order to handle the inflation rate and improves the credibility of the central bank. The paper provides a stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model with the specificity of employing a small open economy. This model analyzes the impact of different regimes of inflation targeting and exchange rate in Tunisia in terms of the welfare loss and describes some aspects of the Tunisian’s economy. The results displays that the social loss is higher under the managed exchange rate than the flexible exchange rate regime for all the shocks. Then in terms of the inflation targeting index, it demonstrates that the consumer prices index outperforms the domestic inflation except for the productivity shock, in contrast to the result of (Parrado, 2004). Finally the strict is superior to the flexible inflation targeting except with the foreign inflation and the domestic interest rate shock.

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