scholarly journals International Capital Flow Reversals

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eduardo A. Cavallo
Keyword(s):  
Capital Flow ◽  
International Capital ◽  
International Capital Flow ◽  
Flow Reversals ◽  
Capital Flow Reversals

RE-MEASUREMENT OF SHORT-TERM INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL FLOWS AND ITS APPLICATION: EVIDENCE FROM CHINA

2018 ◽  
pp. 1-21
Author(s):  
JUNYI SHI
Keyword(s):  
Capital Flows ◽  
Direct Method ◽  
Capital Flow ◽  
International Capital Flows ◽  
International Capital ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Residual Method ◽  
Leading Indicator ◽  
Cross Correlation Analysis ◽  
International Capital Flow

In this paper, we use the improved direct method and improved residual method to re-measure the annual scale and to measure the quarterly scale of the short-term international capital flows based on the Chinese Balance of Payment table. At the same time, we use the residual method to estimate the monthly scale of the Chinese short-term international capital flows as well. Then we explain and test these calculated results. Next we apply the results to the lead–lag analysis of macro-economy. To judge whether the short-term international capital flow is a leading indicator, we apply the Kullback–Leibler information method and cross-correlation analysis method to analyze the lead–lag relationship between the short-term international capital flows and macro-economy by selecting some representative macroeconomic indicators as a reference. Our empirical analysis shows that in China, the short-term international capital flow is a leading indicator to macro-economy and a coincident indicator to Purchasing Managers’ Index. In the end, we give some conclusions and policy proposals.

scholarly journals Capital Flow Reversals, Sudden Stops, and International Reserve Adequacy: Further Evidence From the Global Financial Crisis

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 52 ◽  
Author(s):  
Levan Efremidze ◽  
Ozan Sula ◽  
Thomas Willett
Keyword(s):  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Capital Flow ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Balance Sheet Effects ◽  
Export Competitiveness ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Flow Reversals ◽  
Capital Flow Reversals

Using a dataset of 39 emerging markets, we examined the role of international reserves during currency and capital flow crises. Our analysis revealed that higher levels of reserves are associated with lower intensity crises where intensity is measured by the magnitude of the change in exchange market pressure (EMP) or size of capital flow reversals. We also find evidence for the cushioning effects of reserves during the crises. When used against capital flow reversals, reserves can help mitigate the negative output effects of the crisis. Finally, our findings show that reserve adequacy should be evaluated based on the nature of the potential crisis. Policy makers may prefer to refrain from using reserves if export competitiveness is more important than potential balance sheet effects of currency depreciation. 

scholarly journals Country risk and capital flow reversals

2001 ◽  
Vol 72 (1) ◽  
pp. 73-77 ◽  
Author(s):  
Assaf Razin ◽  
Efraim Sadka
Keyword(s):  
Capital Flow ◽  
Country Risk ◽  
Flow Reversals ◽  
Capital Flow Reversals
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