scholarly journals Quantification and attribution of urban fossil fuel emissions through atmospheric measurements

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ingrid Super
2008 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 15207-15238
Author(s):  
J. C. Turnbull ◽  
J. B. Miller ◽  
S. J. Lehman ◽  
D. Hurst ◽  
P. P. Tans ◽  
...  

Abstract. Because fossil fuel derived CO2 is the only source of atmospheric CO2 that is devoid of 14C, atmospheric measurements of Δ14CO2 can be used to constrain fossil fuel emissions at local and regional scales. However, at the continental scale, atmospheric transport and other sources of variability in Δ14CO2 may influence the fossil fuel detection capability. We present a set of Δ14CO2 observations from the train-based TROICA-8 expedition across Eurasia in March–April 2004. Local perturbations in Δ14CO2 are caused by easily identifiable sources from nuclear reactors and localized pollution events. The remaining data show an increase in Δ14CO2 from Western Russia (40° E) to Eastern Siberia (120° E), consistent with depletion in 14CO2 caused by fossil fuel CO2 emissions in heavily populated Europe, and gradual dispersion of the fossil fuel plume across Northern Asia. Other tracer gas species which may be correlated with fossil fuel CO2 emissions, including carbon monoxide, sulphur hexafluoride, and perchloroethylene, were also measured and the results compared with the Δ14CO2 measurements. The sulphur hexafluoride longitudinal gradient is not significant relative to the measurement uncertainty. Carbon monoxide and perchloroethylene show large-scale trends of enriched values in Western Russia and decreasing values in Eastern Siberia, consistent with fossil fuel emissions, but exhibit significant spatial variability, especially near their primary sources in Western Russia. The clean air Δ14CO2 observations are compared with simulated spatial gradients from the TM5 atmospheric transport model. We show that the change in Δ14CO2 across the TROICA transect is due almost entirely to emissions of fossil fuel CO2, but that the magnitude of this Δ14CO2 gradient is relatively insensitive to modest uncertainties in the fossil fuel flux. In contrast, the Δ14CO2 gradient is strongly sensitive to the modeled representation of vertical mixing, suggesting that Δ14CO2 may be a useful tracer for training mixing in atmospheric transport models.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Kaminski ◽  
Marko Scholze ◽  
Peter Rayner ◽  
Sander Houweling ◽  
Michael Voßbeck ◽  
...  

<p>The Paris Agreement foresees to establish a transparency framework that builds upon inventory-based national greenhouse gas emission reports, complemented by independent emission estimates derived from atmospheric measurements through inverse modelling. The capability of such a Monitoring and Verification Support (MVS) capacity to constrain fossil fuel emissions to a sufficient extent has not yet been assessed. The CO2 Monitoring Mission (CO2M), planned as a constellation of satellites measuring column-integrated atmospheric CO2 concentration (XCO2), is expected to become a key component of an MVS capacity. </p><p>Here we present a CCFFDAS that operates at the resolution of the CO2M sensor, i.e. 2km by 2km, over a 200 km by 200 km region around Berlin. It combines models of sectorial fossil fuel CO2 emissions and biospheric fluxes with the Community Multiscale Air Quality model (coupled to a model of the plume rise from large power plants) as observation operator for XCO2 and tropospheric column NO2 measurements. Inflow from the domain boundaries is treated as extra unknown to be solved for by the CCFFDAS, which also includes prior information on the process model parameters. We discuss the sensitivities (Jacobian matrix) of simulated XCO2 and NO2 troposheric columns with respect to a) emissions from power plants, b) emissions from the surface and c) the lateral inflow and quantify the respective contributions to the observed signal. The Jacobian representation of the complete modelling chain allows us to evaluate data sets of simulated random and systematic CO2M errors in terms of posterior uncertainties in sectorial fossil fuel emissions. We provide assessments of XCO2 alone and in combination with NO2 on the posterior uncertainty in sectorial fossil fuel emissions for two 1-day study periods, one in winter and one in summer. We quantify the added value of the observations for emissions at a single point, at the 2km by 2km scale, at the scale of Berlin districts, and for  Berlin and further cities in our domain. This means the assessments include temporal and spatial scales typically not covered by inventories. Further, we quantify the effect of better information of atmospheric aerosol, provided by a multi-angular polarimeter (MAP) onboard CO2M, on the posterior uncertainties.</p><p>The assessments differentiate the fossil fuel CO2 emissions into two sectors, an energy generation sector (power plants) and the complement, which we call “other sector”. We find that XCO2 measurements alone provide a powerful constraint on emissions from larger power plants and a constraint on emissions from the other sector that increases when aggregated to larger spatial scales. The MAP improves the impact of the CO2M measurements for all power plants and for the other sector on all spatial scales. Over our study domain, the impact of the MAP is particularly high in winter. NO2 measurements provide a powerful additional constraint on the emissions from power plants and from the other sector.</p>


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Lauvaux ◽  
Sha Feng ◽  
Ruixue Lei ◽  
Tomohiro Oda ◽  
Alexandre Danjou ◽  
...  

<p>Pledges from nations and cities to reduce their carbon footprints have reinforced the needs for accurate and transparent reporting of fossil fuel emissions at various scales, with the ultimate goal of the establishments of carbon stocktake as defined by the Paris Agreement. But the assessment of anthropogenic emissions results primarily in collecting socio-economic indicators and emission factors, hence difficult to evaluate, track, or compare without a more standardized and robust methodology. Atmospheric measurements of greenhouse gases are of particular interests by offering an independent and global source of information thanks to satellite platforms observing continuously the atmospheric content of the major gases responsible for human-induced climate change. <br><br>Based on lessons learned from the NASA Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO)-2 mission, we present the potential of satellite-based approaches to monitor greenhouse gas emissions from large metropolitan areas across the world (Riyadh, Lahore, Los Angeles). After exploring the technical aspects and challenges of the approach, potential aerosol contamination (CALIPSO), and model requirements, we introduce the upcoming capabilities from the follow-up mission, OCO-3, dedicated in part to urban emissions with the Snapshot Area Mapping mode, the first imagery of atmospheric CO2 concentrations for hundreds of targeted cities and power plants. Early snapshots are examined with high-resolution simulations over a handful of cities. The ongoing development of assimilation systems to inform policy makers about current trends and inter-annual variations is presented and discussed. We finally examine the potential roles and objectives of satellite missions by exploring recent trends in fossil fuel emissions along with proxies of air quality (MODIS) as a unique opportunity to track not only greenhouse gas emissions but more generally the evolution of urban environments.</p>


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marko Scholze ◽  
Thomas Kaminski ◽  
Peter Rayner ◽  
Michael Vossbeck ◽  
Michael Buchwitz ◽  
...  

<p>The Paris Agreement establishes a transparency framework that builds upon inventory-based national greenhouse gas emission reports, complemented by independent emission estimates derived from atmospheric measurements through inverse modelling. The capability of such a Monitoring and Verification Support (MVS) capacity to constrain fossil fuel emissions to a sufficient extent has not yet been assessed. The CO<sub>2</sub> Monitoring Mission, planned as a constellation of satellites measuring column-integrated atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> concentration (XCO2), is expected to become a key component of an MVS capacity. </p><p>Here we provide an assessment of the potential of a Carbon Cycle Fossil Fuel Data Assimilation System using synthetic XCO2 and other observations to constrain fossil fuel CO<sub>2</sub> emissions for an exemplary 1-week period in 2008. We find that the system can provide useful weekly estimates of country-scale fossil fuel emissions independent of national inventories.  When extrapolated from the weekly to the annual scale, uncertainties in emissions are comparable to uncertainties in inventories, so that estimates from inventories and from the MVS capacity can be used for mutual verification. </p><p>We further demonstrate an alternative, synergistic mode of operation, which delivers a best emission estimate through assimilation of the inventory information as an additional data stream.  We show the sensitivity of the results to the setup of the CCFFDAS and to various aspects of the data streams that are assimilated, including assessments of surface networks.</p>


2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (23) ◽  
pp. eabd6034
Author(s):  
C. Ronnie Drever ◽  
Susan C. Cook-Patton ◽  
Fardausi Akhter ◽  
Pascal H. Badiou ◽  
Gail L. Chmura ◽  
...  

Alongside the steep reductions needed in fossil fuel emissions, natural climate solutions (NCS) represent readily deployable options that can contribute to Canada’s goals for emission reductions. We estimate the mitigation potential of 24 NCS related to the protection, management, and restoration of natural systems that can also deliver numerous co-benefits, such as enhanced soil productivity, clean air and water, and biodiversity conservation. NCS can provide up to 78.2 (41.0 to 115.1) Tg CO2e/year (95% CI) of mitigation annually in 2030 and 394.4 (173.2 to 612.4) Tg CO2e cumulatively between 2021 and 2030, with 34% available at ≤CAD 50/Mg CO2e. Avoided conversion of grassland, avoided peatland disturbance, cover crops, and improved forest management offer the largest mitigation opportunities. The mitigation identified here represents an important potential contribution to the Paris Agreement, such that NCS combined with existing mitigation plans could help Canada to meet or exceed its climate goals.


Author(s):  
Yongming Han ◽  
Zhisheng An ◽  
Richard Arimoto ◽  
Colin N. Waters ◽  
Tobias Schneider ◽  
...  

2020 ◽  
Vol 117 (24) ◽  
pp. 13300-13307 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sourish Basu ◽  
Scott J. Lehman ◽  
John B. Miller ◽  
Arlyn E. Andrews ◽  
Colm Sweeney ◽  
...  

We report national scale estimates of CO2emissions from fossil-fuel combustion and cement production in the United States based directly on atmospheric observations, using a dual-tracer inverse modeling framework and CO2andΔ14CO2measurements obtained primarily from the North American portion of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Greenhouse Gas Reference Network. The derived US national total for 2010 is 1,653 ± 30 TgC yr−1with an uncertainty (1σ) that takes into account random errors associated with atmospheric transport, atmospheric measurements, and specified prior CO2and14C fluxes. The atmosphere-derived estimate is significantly larger (>3σ) than US national emissions for 2010 from three global inventories widely used for CO2accounting, even after adjustments for emissions that might be sensed by the atmospheric network, but which are not included in inventory totals. It is also larger (>2σ) than a similarly adjusted total from the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), but overlaps EPA’s reported upper 95% confidence limit. In contrast, the atmosphere-derived estimate is within1σof the adjusted 2010 annual total and nine of 12 adjusted monthly totals aggregated from the latest version of the high-resolution, US-specific “Vulcan” emission data product. Derived emissions appear to be robust to a range of assumed prior emissions and other parameters of the inversion framework. While we cannot rule out a possible bias from assumed prior Net Ecosystem Exchange over North America, we show that this can be overcome with additionalΔ14CO2measurements. These results indicate the strong potential for quantification of US emissions and their multiyear trends from atmospheric observations.


2012 ◽  
Vol 9 (9) ◽  
pp. 12259-12308 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. Haverd ◽  
M. R. Raupach ◽  
P. R. Briggs ◽  
J. G. Canadell ◽  
S. J. Davis ◽  
...  

Abstract. This paper reports a study of the full carbon (C-CO2) budget of the Australian continent, focussing on 1990–2011 in the context of estimates over two centuries. The work is a contribution to the RECCAP (REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes) project, as one of numerous regional studies being synthesised in RECCAP. In constructing the budget, we estimate the following component carbon fluxes: Net Primary Production (NPP); Net Ecosystem Production (NEP); fire; Land Use Change (LUC); riverine export; dust export; harvest (wood, crop and livestock) and fossil fuel emissions (both territorial and non-territorial). The mean NEP reveals that climate variability and rising CO2 contributed 12 ± 29 (1σ error on mean) and 68 ± 35 Tg C yr−1 respectively. However these gains were partially offset by fire and LUC (along with other minor fluxes), which caused net losses of 31 ± 5 Tg C yr−1 and 18 ± 7 Tg C yr−1 respectively. The resultant Net Biome Production (NBP) of 31 ± 35 Tg C yr−1 offset fossil fuel emissions (95 ± 6 Tg C yr−1) by 32 ± 36%. The interannual variability (IAV) in the Australian carbon budget exceeds Australia's total carbon emissions by fossil fuel combustion and is dominated by IAV in NEP. Territorial fossil fuel emissions are significantly smaller than the rapidly growing fossil fuel exports: in 2009–2010, Australia exported 2.5 times more carbon in fossil fuels than it emitted by burning fossil fuels.


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