Long-Term, Continuous Wind Direction Time Series from Measurement Sites in Dry Creek Experimental Watershed, Southwest Idaho

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
James P. McNamara
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Wind Direction

scholarly journals The Importance of Climate Variability to Wind-Driven Modulation of Hypoxia in Chesapeake Bay

2010 ◽  
Vol 40 (6) ◽  
pp. 1435-1440 ◽  
Author(s):  
Malcolm E. Scully
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Chesapeake Bay ◽  
Wind Direction ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Nitrogen Loading ◽  
Nutrient Inputs ◽  
Westerly Direction ◽  
Hypoxic Volume

Abstract Extensive hypoxia remains a problem in Chesapeake Bay, despite some reductions in estimated nutrient inputs. An analysis of a 58-yr time series of summer hypoxia reveals that a significant fraction of the interannual variability observed in Chesapeake Bay is correlated to changes in summertime wind direction that are the result of large-scale climate variability. Beginning around 1980, the surface pressure associated with the summer Bermuda high has weakened, favoring winds from a more westerly direction, the direction most correlated with observed hypoxia. Regression analysis suggests that the long-term increase in hypoxic volume observed in this dataset is only accounted for when both changes in wind direction and nitrogen loading are considered.

Forecasting the wind direction by using time series models with long-term memory (case study: Nayer region)

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Paria Soleimani ◽  
Bahareh Emami ◽  
Meysam Rafei ◽  
Hooman Shahrasbi
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Wind Energy ◽  
Wind Direction ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Maximum Energy ◽  
Long Term Memory ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Content Type

Purpose Today, because of the increasing need for the energy resources and the reduction of fossil fuels, renewable energy, especially wind energy, has attracted special attention. The precise forecasting of such energy will be the main factor in designing and investing in this field. On the other hand, the wind energy forecast provides the possibility of optimal use of available resources. In addition, the produce maximum energy would be possible by identifying wind direction and putting wind turbines in the best position. Design/methodology/approach Time series forecasting methods with long-term memory in this research have been used. Findings Eventually, the autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average (3,0,0)-FIGARCH (1,0,1) long-term memory model has more acceptable performance. The obtained error is based on the RMSE (0.2889) and the TIC (0.2605) values. Practical implications In this paper, the forecast wind direction belongs to Ardebil province and Nayer city in Iran. Originality/value The speed and direction of wind are variables that constantly change; hence, it will be difficult to predict the exact wind energy. In recent years, some studies have been conducted on wind speed forecasting, whereas wind direction forecasting has been done in a fewer number of studies. Most studies are related to low-lying areas. As the height of the wind turbine is directly related to the energy generation, 78 m height has been considered in this study.

scholarly journals Aerosol optical depth retrievals at the Izaña Atmospheric Observatory from 1941 to 2013 by using artificial neural networks

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 53-62 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. D. García ◽  
O. E. García ◽  
E. Cuevas ◽  
V. E. Cachorro ◽  
A. Barreto ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Aerosol Optical Depth ◽  
Optical Depth ◽  
Mineral Dust ◽  
Dust Particles ◽  
Filter Radiometer ◽  
Artificial Neural

Abstract. This paper presents the reconstruction of a 73-year time series of the aerosol optical depth (AOD) at 500 nm at the subtropical high-mountain Izaña Atmospheric Observatory (IZO) located in Tenerife (Canary Islands, Spain). For this purpose, we have combined AOD estimates from artificial neural networks (ANNs) from 1941 to 2001 and AOD measurements directly obtained with a Precision Filter Radiometer (PFR) between 2003 and 2013. The analysis is limited to summer months (July–August–September), when the largest aerosol load is observed at IZO (Saharan mineral dust particles). The ANN AOD time series has been comprehensively validated against coincident AOD measurements performed with a solar spectrometer Mark-I (1984–2009) and AERONET (AErosol RObotic NETwork) CIMEL photometers (2004–2009) at IZO, obtaining a rather good agreement on a daily basis: Pearson coefficient, R, of 0.97 between AERONET and ANN AOD, and 0.93 between Mark-I and ANN AOD estimates. In addition, we have analysed the long-term consistency between ANN AOD time series and long-term meteorological records identifying Saharan mineral dust events at IZO (synoptical observations and local wind records). Both analyses provide consistent results, with correlations  >  85 %. Therefore, we can conclude that the reconstructed AOD time series captures well the AOD variations and dust-laden Saharan air mass outbreaks on short-term and long-term timescales and, thus, it is suitable to be used in climate analysis.

scholarly journals Long-Term Data Traffic Forecasting for Network Dimensioning in LTE with Short Time Series

Electronics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. 1151
Author(s):  
Carolina Gijón ◽  
Matías Toril ◽  
Salvador Luna-Ramírez ◽  
María Luisa Marí-Altozano ◽  
José María Ruiz-Avilés
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Data Traffic ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Traffic Forecasting ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Radio Planning

Network dimensioning is a critical task in current mobile networks, as any failure in this process leads to degraded user experience or unnecessary upgrades of network resources. For this purpose, radio planning tools often predict monthly busy-hour data traffic to detect capacity bottlenecks in advance. Supervised Learning (SL) arises as a promising solution to improve predictions obtained with legacy approaches. Previous works have shown that deep learning outperforms classical time series analysis when predicting data traffic in cellular networks in the short term (seconds/minutes) and medium term (hours/days) from long historical data series. However, long-term forecasting (several months horizon) performed in radio planning tools relies on short and noisy time series, thus requiring a separate analysis. In this work, we present the first study comparing SL and time series analysis approaches to predict monthly busy-hour data traffic on a cell basis in a live LTE network. To this end, an extensive dataset is collected, comprising data traffic per cell for a whole country during 30 months. The considered methods include Random Forest, different Neural Networks, Support Vector Regression, Seasonal Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average and Additive Holt–Winters. Results show that SL models outperform time series approaches, while reducing data storage capacity requirements. More importantly, unlike in short-term and medium-term traffic forecasting, non-deep SL approaches are competitive with deep learning while being more computationally efficient.

scholarly journals Assessing Stream-Aquifer Connectivity in a Coastal California Watershed

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 416
Author(s):  
Bwalya Malama ◽  
Devin Pritchard-Peterson ◽  
John J. Jasbinsek ◽  
Christopher Surfleet
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Spectral Analysis ◽  
Water Level ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Low Permeability ◽  
Pumping Tests ◽  
Stream Flows ◽  
The Impact

We report the results of field and laboratory investigations of stream-aquifer interactions in a watershed along the California coast to assess the impact of groundwater pumping for irrigation on stream flows. The methods used include subsurface sediment sampling using direct-push drilling, laboratory permeability and particle size analyses of sediment, piezometer installation and instrumentation, stream discharge and stage monitoring, pumping tests for aquifer characterization, resistivity surveys, and long-term passive monitoring of stream stage and groundwater levels. Spectral analysis of long-term water level data was used to assess correlation between stream and groundwater level time series data. The investigations revealed the presence of a thin low permeability silt-clay aquitard unit between the main aquifer and the stream. This suggested a three layer conceptual model of the subsurface comprising unconfined and confined aquifers separated by an aquitard layer. This was broadly confirmed by resistivity surveys and pumping tests, the latter of which indicated the occurrence of leakage across the aquitard. The aquitard was determined to be 2–3 orders of magnitude less permeable than the aquifer, which is indicative of weak stream-aquifer connectivity and was confirmed by spectral analysis of stream-aquifer water level time series. The results illustrate the importance of site-specific investigations and suggest that even in systems where the stream is not in direct hydraulic contact with the producing aquifer, long-term stream depletion can occur due to leakage across low permeability units. This has implications for management of stream flows, groundwater abstraction, and water resources management during prolonged periods of drought.

scholarly journals Maps, trends, and temperature sensitivities—phenological information from and for decreasing numbers of volunteer observers

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ye Yuan ◽  
Stefan Härer ◽  
Tobias Ottenheym ◽  
Gourav Misra ◽  
Alissa Lüpke ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Strong Decrease ◽  
Temperature Changes ◽  
Interpolation Accuracy ◽  
Observation Network ◽  
Shiny App ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Autumn And Winter

AbstractPhenology serves as a major indicator of ongoing climate change. Long-term phenological observations are critically important for tracking and communicating these changes. The phenological observation network across Germany is operated by the National Meteorological Service with a major contribution from volunteering activities. However, the number of observers has strongly decreased for the last decades, possibly resulting in increasing uncertainties when extracting reliable phenological information from map interpolation. We studied uncertainties in interpolated maps from decreasing phenological records, by comparing long-term trends based on grid-based interpolated and station-wise observed time series, as well as their correlations with temperature. Interpolated maps in spring were characterized by the largest spatial variabilities across Bavaria, Germany, with respective lowest interpolated uncertainties. Long-term phenological trends for both interpolations and observations exhibited mean advances of −0.2 to −0.3 days year−1 for spring and summer, while late autumn and winter showed a delay of around 0.1 days year−1. Throughout the year, temperature sensitivities were consistently stronger for interpolated time series than observations. Such a better representation of regional phenology by interpolation was equally supported by satellite-derived phenological indices. Nevertheless, simulation of observer numbers indicated that a decline to less than 40% leads to a strong decrease in interpolation accuracy. To better understand the risk of declining phenological observations and to motivate volunteer observers, a Shiny app is proposed to visualize spatial and temporal phenological patterns across Bavaria and their links to climate change–induced temperature changes.

Application of singular spectrum analysis in reconstruction of the annual signal from GRACE

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 295-302
Author(s):  
Chuandong Zhu ◽  
Wei Zhan ◽  
Jinzhao Liu ◽  
Ming Chen
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Spectrum Analysis ◽  
Singular Spectrum Analysis ◽  
Mixture Effect ◽  
Singular Spectrum ◽  
Grace Data ◽  
Terrestrial Water ◽  
Annual Signal ◽  
Long Term Variations

AbstractThe mixture effect of the long-term variations is a main challenge in single channel singular spectrum analysis (SSA) for the reconstruction of the annual signal from GRACE data. In this paper, a nonlinear long-term variations deduction method is used to improve the accuracy of annual signal reconstructed from GRACE data using SSA. Our method can identify and eliminate the nonlinear long-term variations of the equivalent water height time series recovered from GRACE. Therefore the mixture effect of the long-term variations can be avoided in the annual modes of SSA. For the global terrestrial water recovered from GRACE, the peak to peak value of the annual signal is between 1.4 cm and 126.9 cm, with an average of 11.7 cm. After the long-term and the annual term have been deducted, the standard deviation of residual time series is between 0.9 cm and 9.9 cm, with an average of 2.1 cm. Compared with the traditional least squares fitting method, our method can reflect the dynamic change of the annual signal in global terrestrial water, more accurately with an uncertainty of between 0.3 cm and 2.9 cm.

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