scholarly journals Annex Figure 2.B.2. Sensitivity analysis for the United States

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. M. Minderhoud ◽  
L. Elefteriadou Elefteriadou

Weaving sections are a commonly adopted freeway facility both in the United States and in Europe. Knowledge about the capacity and level of service achievable on different types of weaving segments is necessary for the design and management of freeways. Guidelines such as those of the U.S. Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) provide capacity values for different weaving configuration types. The Dutch guidelines for the design of weaving segments are compared with those of the U.S. HCM. Differences between their respective approaches are identified, and a comparison of capacity values is conducted. It was found that there are large differences in capacity estimates for certain weaving configuration types. The results of a sensitivity analysis explain these differences in capacity values to a large extent. This analysis showed that it is important to consider the weaving proportions per leg. Currently, neither the HCM nor the Dutch approach considers different weaving flows per incoming leg. The introduction of an additional variable into the calculation procedure that takes into account the presence of asymmetrical weaving flows is recommended.


2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Corinne Willame ◽  
Brigitte Cheuvart ◽  
Emmanuel Aris ◽  
Volker Vetter ◽  
Catherine Cohet

Abstract Background: The etiology of intussusception (IS), a serious medical condition of acute gastrointestinal obstruction, remains unclear. Limited evidence suggests a role for viral infections, including rotavirus infection. This study aimed to explore the risk of IS after rotavirus gastroenteritis (RV GE) in the first year of life, where the incidence of IS is highest. Methods: In this retrospective, self-controlled case series (SCCS), we assessed the risk of IS after RV GE in infants <1 year of age, using data extracted from administrative claims databases in the United States. Incidence rate ratios (IRR) of IS were calculated for the 7- and 21-day risk periods after RV GE (main analysis) or after fracture (sensitivity analysis using a control event) in subjects presenting with claims for these conditions. Post-hoc analyses were also performed. Results: Out of the 290,912,068 subjects screened, 42 subjects presented claims for RV GE and IS (RV GE group) and 66 presented claims for fracture and IS (fracture group). The IRR of IS after RV GE was 79.6 (95% confidence interval, CI: 38.6–164.4) in the 7-day risk period and 25.5 (95% CI: 13.2–49.2) in the 21-day risk period. The sensitivity analysis also showed an association between IS and fracture for the two risk periods: IRR was 6.1 (95% CI: 3.0–12.7) and 2.8 (95% CI: 1.5–5.4) in the 7- and 21-day risk periods, respectively, which suggested potential confounding such as by history of rotavirus vaccination, or a visit effect. Post-hoc analyses investigating these points did not confirm an association between fracture and IS, but still suggested a possible association between RV GE and IS. Conclusions: A temporal association between RV GE and IS was detected using the SCCS design in United States claims databases. However, due to some limitations identified through additional analyses, further studies are needed to confirm this association.


2012 ◽  
Vol 108 (08) ◽  
pp. 291-302 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew E. Borrego ◽  
Alex L. Woersching ◽  
Robert Federici ◽  
Ross Downey ◽  
Jay Tiongson ◽  
...  

SummaryHealthcare reform is upon the United States (US) healthcare system. Prioritisation of preventative efforts will guide necessary transitions within the US healthcare system. While annual deep-vein thrombosis (DVT) costs have recently been defined at the US national level, annual pulmonary embolism (PE) and venous thromboembolism (VTE) costs have not yet been defined. A decision tree and cost model were developed to estimate US health care costs for total PE, total hospital-acquired PE, and total hospital-acquired “preventable” PE. The previously published DVT cost model was modified, updated and combined with the PE cost model to elucidate the same three categories of costs for VTE. Direct and indirect costs were also delineated. For VTE in the base model, annual cost ranges in 2011 US dollars for total, hospital-acquired, and hospital-acquired “preventable” costs and were $13.5-$27.2, $9.0-$18.2, and $4.5-$14.2 billion, respectively. The first sensitivity analysis, with higher incidence rates and costs, demonstrated annual US total, hospital-acquired, and hospital-acquired “preventable” VTE costs ranging from $32.1-$69.3, $23.7-$51.5, and $11.9-$39.3 billion, respectively. The second sensitivity analysis with long-term attack rates (LTAR) for recurrent events and post-thrombotic syndrome and chronic pulmonary thromboembolic hypertension demonstrated annual US total, hospital-acquired, and hospital-acquired “preventable” VTE costs ranging from $15.4-$34.4, $10.3-$25.4, and $5.1-$19.1 billion, respectively. PE costs comprised a majority of the VTE costs. Prioritisation of effective VTE preventative strategies will reduce significant costs, morbidity and mortality within the US healthcare system. The cost models may be utilised to estimate other countries’ costs or VTE-specific disease states.


Author(s):  
Nuno Fonseca ◽  
Carlos Guedes Soares

The paper presents a methodology to calculate the seakeeping performance of ships, which is given as an operability index, and discusses the sensitivity of the results to the use of different seakeeping criteria. The calculation of the operability index, which represents the percentage of time during which the ship is operational, depends on the wave climate of the ocean area where the ship operates, the dynamic response of the ship to the waves, and the ship mission. The relation between the ship operability and the mission characteristics is established through the seakeeping criteria. The calculation of operability indexes and the sensitivity analysis are carried out for a containership operating in the North Atlantique between Europe and the United states, and a fishing vessel operating near the Portuguese west coast. These are two ships with different mission profiles, which permits assessment of the sensitivity of the estimated operability index to different ship types.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dachuang Zhou ◽  
Taihang Shao ◽  
Zeyao Liu ◽  
Xingming Pan ◽  
Xueke Zhang ◽  
...  

Abstract Background: Currently, increasing regions have realized that universal vaccination are necessary to prevent COVID-19. However many of them are facing problems associated with insufficient supply or chaotic allocation of vaccines. This study selected the United States population as an example and explored prioritization strategies of COVID-19 vaccination for different age groups to achieve the highest economic efficiency.Methods: We built a dynamic transmission model to predict the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infections under the prioritization strategies of vaccination for different ages within a 180-day simulation period. Quality-adjusted life year (QALY) was selected as the outcome. Medical costs included direct medical cost and vaccine cost based on a healthcare system perspective. Data on SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology, vaccine efficacy, and medical costs were derived from publicly available databases and previously published literature. Different COVID-19 vaccines were included in scenario analysis. The robustness of the study results was evaluated by one-way sensitivity analysis and probabilistic sensitivity analysis.Results: COVID-19 vaccination is economical compared with no vaccination. Priority vaccination for adults aged 25–59 years saves $31,664.2 million and that for adults over 60 years old saves $30,082.9 million in medical costs compared with no vaccine intervention. Additionally, priority vaccination for adults aged 25–59 years vs. over 60 years old saves $1,581.3 million. In contrast, priority vaccination for adults aged over 60 years vs. 25–59 years old gains 0.001 QALYs and costs $4.7 per capita, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $4,829.3/QALY, and it is economical when taking gross domestic product per capita of the United States in 2020 as the willingness-to-pay threshold. The results of sensitivity analysis indicate that the base-case results are robust.Conclusions: From a healthcare system perspective, it is most economical to prioritize adults aged over 60 years for COVID-19 vaccination in the United States, thereby achieving effective resource allocation and saving the government costs.


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