Development of primary commodity price indices, 2010-20

Author(s):  
Chelsea L Estancona

Abstract Rebel organizations often benefit from the sale of primary commodities. However, producing these commodities may require labor from noncombatants. Rebels provide security and payment to civilian suppliers, but their ability to do so depends on consistent profits. How, then, do price shocks to labor-intensive primary commodities undermine rebel–supplier relationships? I hypothesize that negative commodity price shocks lead cash-strapped rebels to ensure suppliers’ loyalty by substituting coercion for positive incentives. Conversely, states seek to limit rapid increases in rebels’ profit while avoiding the reputational costs of civilian victimization. Thus, victimization of rebel suppliers from groups such as pro-government paramilitaries is hypothesized to increase after positive commodity price shocks. I test these hypotheses with a new dataset covering 1999–2007 that combines monthly US STRIDE (System to Retrieve Information from Drug Evidence) data on cocaine price with municipal-level data from the Colombian Centro Nacional de Memoria Histórica about the FARC (Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia) and paramilitary groups’ use of civilian victimization.


1979 ◽  
Vol 87 ◽  
pp. 57-60

Our commodity price indices have been published for twenty years, since the first issue of the Economic Review. They differed from the other indicators of price movements in free international markets available at that time in that their weighting system was geared to the exports of primary producing countries. This pioneering statistical exercise proved worthwhile, since these index numbers are now fairly widely used and their value, as an analytical and forecasting tool, was quickly recognised in estimating, amongst other things, the import potential of primary producing countries.


1959 ◽  
Vol 1 ◽  
pp. 32-35

Three new commodity price indices have been compiled by the National Institute and appear in table 20 of the Statistical Appendix (page 50). Their purpose is to give an early (but necessarily rough) indication of current price movements in three trade flows: (a)in United Kingdom imports, with sub-indices for food and tobacco, industrial materials and fuel,(b)in the exports of the overseas sterling area,(c)in the exports of primary producing countries in total.


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