Export performance remains solid but the current account surplus has steadily narrowed

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Current Account ◽  
Export Performance ◽  
Current Account Surplus ◽  
The Current Account

What Explains Current Account Surplus in Korea?

2018 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 70-93
Author(s):  
Chirok Han ◽  
Kwanho Shin
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Current Account Balance ◽  
Budget Deficits ◽  
Current Account Surplus ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Right ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Current Account

Since the currency crisis in 1998, Korea has experienced continuous current account surpluses. Recently, the current account surplus increased more rapidly—amounting to 7.7 percent of GDP in 2015. In this paper, we investigate the underlying reasons for the widening of Korea's current account surpluses. We find that the upward trend in Korea's current account surpluses is largely explained by its demographical changes. Other economic variables are only helpful when explaining short run fluctuations in current account balances. Moreover, we show that Korea's current account surplus is expected to disappear by 2042 as it becomes one of the most aged economies in the world. Demographic changes are so powerful that they explain, quite successfully, the current account balance trends of other economies with highly aged populations such as Japan, Germany, Italy, Finland, and Greece. When we add the real exchange rate as an additional explanatory variable, it is statistically significant with the right sign, but the magnitude explained by it is quite limited. For example, to reduce the current account surplus by 1 percentage point, a 12 percent depreciation is needed. If Korea's current exchange rate is undervalued 4 to 12 percent less than the level consistent with fundamentals, it is impossible to reduce Korea's current account surplus to a reasonable level by adjusting the exchange rate alone. Another way to reduce current account surplus is to expand fiscal policies. We find, however, that the impact of fiscal adjustments in reducing current account surplus is even more limited. According to our estimates, reducing the current account surplus by 1 percentage point requires an increase in budget deficits (as a ratio to GDP) of 5 to 6 percentage points. If we allow endogenous movements of exchange rate and fiscal policy, the impact of exchange rate adjustment increases by 1.6 times but that of fiscal policy decreases that it is no longer statistically significant.

scholarly journals ESTIMATION OF BALANCE OF PAYMENTS OF UKRAINE

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Volodymyr Tyshchenko ◽  
Olena Tyshchenko
Keyword(s):  
Current Account ◽  
The State ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Current Account Surplus ◽  
Foreign Economic Policy ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Financial Account ◽  
Positive Balance ◽  
Main Components ◽  
The Current Account

The article highlights the features of the formation and assessment of the balance of payments in Ukraine. The balance of payments of Ukraine is a functional macroeconomic model that reflects all transactions that are carried out between the subjects of the national economy and the subjects of the economies of other countries of the world. This model allows you to develop and implement a sound foreign economic policy of Ukraine, analyze the state of commodity and financial markets, conduct scientific research of economic processes in the state, etc. Ukraine is actively implementing the methodology of balance of payments formation according to the recommendations of the International Monetary Fund. Ukraine's balance of payments by main components is grouped into two accounts: "capital and financial transactions" and "current transactions": capital transactions cover all transactions related to the receipt or payment of capital transfers and the acquisition or sale of property rights and non-financial assets; current transactions include all transactions between residents and non-residents on real values, as well as transactions on the free provision or receipt of valuables for current use. Like any other "balance of payments" consists of receipts and payments. It is active (surplus) when revenues are greater than payments and passive (deficit) when payments are greater than revenues. Based on the assessment of the balance of payments of Ukraine for 2020, certain conclusions can be drawn: stable external demand for food softened the drop in exports of goods from Ukraine during the COVID-19 pandemic, and the increase in prices contributed to its growth at the end of 2020; despite a slight recovery in domestic demand in the IV quarters of 2020, imports of goods to Ukraine by the results of 2020 decreased significantly; the current account surplus in Ukraine in 2020 was provided by a significant positive balance of trade in services and a record surplus of the primary income account; capital outflow from Ukraine on the financial account stopped at the end of 2020 due to the optimism of investors; despite the crisis and significant payments on external debt, Ukraine's gross reserves increased in 2020, and the financial crisis once again confirmed the importance of both international support and a balanced macroeconomic policy. The current account surplus in Ukraine in 2020 reached one of the largest levels in the history of Ukraine, it was formed due to a significant decrease in imports of goods and services, a reduction in payments on primary income and the relative stability of exports of goods and remittances. The article proposes recommendations for improving approaches to the formation of the balance of payments in Ukraine using certain methods when regulating the balance of payments of the state.

The long run influence of pension systems on the current account

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 67-101
Author(s):  
Thomas Davoine
Keyword(s):  
Current Account ◽  
Overlapping Generations ◽  
Current Account Balance ◽  
Current Account Surplus ◽  
Pension Systems ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Funded Pensions ◽  
Future Consumption ◽  
Cross Country ◽  
The Current Account

AbstractExplaining cross-country differences in current accounts is difficult. While pay-as-you-go pensions reduce the need to save for retirement, contributions to capital-funded pensions are saved for future consumption. An overlapping-generations analysis shows that capital-funded pensions increase net foreign assets holdings. With a multi-pillar system whose capital-funded part accounts for 18% of pensions, the Austrian current account balance would be 1 percentage point of gross domestic product (GDP) higher than with pure pay-as-you-go pensions in 20 years. By comparison, the Austrian current account surplus averages 1.8% of GDP. Empirically, I find that the current account of high-income countries increases with the coverage and replacement rates of capital-funded pensions.

Factor Market Distortion and the Current Account Surplus in China

2010 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 1-36 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yiping Huang ◽  
Kunyu Tao
Keyword(s):  
Growth Performance ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Focal Point ◽  
Alternative Hypothesis ◽  
Current Account Surplus ◽  
Macroeconomic Conditions ◽  
Large Current ◽  
Market Distortion ◽  
Comprehensive Reform ◽  
The Current Account

China's large current account surpluses not only destabilize its own macroeconomic conditions, but are also a focal point for global rebalancing discussions. Existing explanations by the literature fail either to account for the recent surge or to offer actionablepolicy responses. In this study, we propose an alternative hypothesis: asymmetric market liberalization and associated cost distortions. These distortions are producer subsidy equivalents, which contributed to both extraordinary growth performance and the growing structural imbalances. Our rough estimates of such factor cost distortions offer some explanations for recent movements of the current account. We argue that China needs to adopt a comprehensive reform package to rebalance its economy.

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