Export growth has been strong in the post-crisis period, but the increase in domestic private investment has been modest, despite high credit growth

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Private Investment ◽  
Export Growth ◽  
Credit Growth ◽  
Crisis Period

scholarly journals Abnormal Loan Growth and Bank Profitability: Some Evidence from the Recent Crisis

2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (7) ◽  
pp. 36
Author(s):  
Simone Rossi ◽  
Mariarosa Borroni ◽  
Mariacristina Piva ◽  
Andrea Lippi
Keyword(s):  
Bank Profitability ◽  
Credit Growth ◽  
Crisis Period ◽  
Managerial Myopia ◽  
Lending Policy ◽  
European Banks ◽  
Loan Growth ◽  
Credit Standards ◽  
The Relationship

During healthy economic/financial times, credit growth often happens without proper provisioning. This is due to a managerial myopia that underestimates the risks underlying an expansive lending policy, leading to lower profitability in following years. However, given the countercyclicality of credit standards, this effect shouldn’t occur during harsh times. In this paper, we analyse the relationship between abnormal credit growth and bank profitability during a crisis period. In particular, we test the hypothesis that during a crisis, abnormal credit growth improves bank profitability, given the need for higher, or at least stable, credit standards. We find support for this assumption using a sample of 101 large European banks observed during the recent crisis period. Results are robust to different robustness checks.

scholarly journals Excessive credit growth or the catching up process: The case of central, eastern, and southeastern European countries

2015 ◽  
Vol 60 (206) ◽  
pp. 7-44
Author(s):  
Dusan Stojanovic ◽  
Danilo Stojanovic
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
Empirical Analysis ◽  
Credit Growth ◽  
Crisis Period ◽  
Empirical Results ◽  
Catching Up ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Hp Filter ◽  
Strong Expansion

Most CESEE countries had an impressive credit growth prior to the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008. Nevertheless, that experience has taught us that the strong expansion of private sector credit must not be ignored. In an attempt to investigate whether the rapid credit growth was a result of the catching-up process or was a risky process with well-known consequences, we performed empirical analysis by applying statistical (HP filter) and econometric (pooled OLS, fixed effect OLS, and PMG) approaches. The empirical results of both out-of-sample and in-sample approaches suggest that in the pre-crisis period excessive credit growth in terms of higher actual than estimated credit growth was recorded for the majority of the countries observed. Compared to the out of-sample approach, in-sample estimates, which turned out to be more reliable, indicate that the pre-crisis growth was less pronounced and that over the post-crisis period actual credit growth fluctuated around the estimated growth, pointing to the fact that the former was in line with movements in its fitted values.

Thai security outlook varies regionally

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
National Security ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Export Growth ◽  
Computer Crime ◽  
Military Coup ◽  
Political Pressure ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Third

Significance The attack occurred on the third anniversary of the 2014 military coup. Both the hospital bombing and a spike in violence in the southern insurgency point to a deterioration in national security. Impacts The junta will use the recent violence to step up its crackdown on dissidents. The new Computer Crime Act that comes into effect this week could be used in a new purge of online dissidents. Recent export growth will provide an economic boost over the next six months, easing some political pressure on the junta. However, further attacks on the capital could prevent a rebound in private investment, which has been weakening since the start of 2016.

On the Exchange Rate Policy

2010 ◽  
pp. 21-28
Author(s):  
K. Yudaeva
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Exchange Rate Policy ◽  
Institutional Changes ◽  
Crisis Period ◽  
Local Currency ◽  
High Inflation ◽  
Rate Policy ◽  
The Exchange Rate

The level of trust in the local currency in Russia is very low largely because of relatively high inflation. As a result, Bank of Russia during crisis times can not afford monetary policy loosening and has to fight devaluation expectations. To change the situation in the post-crisis period Russia needs to live through a continuous period of low inflation. Modified inflation targeting can help achieve such a result. However, it should be amended with institutional changes, particularly development of hedging instruments.

Institutional environment creating for attracting investment into infrastructure: The cases of Russian regions

2019 ◽  
pp. 134-157 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. A. Borshchevskiy
Keyword(s):  
Institutional Environment ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Infrastructure Development ◽  
Russian Regions ◽  
Development Indicators ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
The Behavior Of Government ◽  
The City ◽  
Nenets Autonomous ◽  
Practical Recommendations

The article examines the institutional process in a regional economy connected with the infrastructure development. We use the neoinstitutional approach to study factors that influence the behavior of government and business in their interaction in the economy. We also use statistical methods to analyze the dynamics of socio-economic development indicators of the subjects of the Russian Federation as well as the results of measures to attract private investment into infrastructure, including the PPP. We chose the city of Moscow and the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous District as two empirical case studies which differ in economic and geographic conditions, but both demonstrate success in attracting private investment and implementing infrastructure projects. Our conclusions are consistent with a theory that asserts the primacy of institutional environment in relation to project implementation. We make also some practical recommendations for the development of the institutional environment which are acceptable for all regions solving similar problems of infrastructure development.

The Determinants of Merger Withdrawals’ Abnormal Returns in The Australian Market

2015 ◽  
pp. 89-110 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thuy Nguyen Thu ◽  
Giang Dao Thi Thu ◽  
Hoang Truong Huy
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Event Study ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Market Response ◽  
Crisis Period ◽  
Valuation Effects ◽  
Event Study Method ◽  
Private And Public ◽  
Method Of Payment ◽  
The Impact

This paper examines the abnormal returns in merger withdrawals in Australia, especially distinguishing the market response between private and public targets. We also study the determinants of those abnormal returns, including the method of payment and the impact of financial crisis periods. Using the event study method, we document that in the Australian context, the announced withdrawal of mergers involving private targets creates significantly negative valuation effects in comparison with the valuation effects in withdrawal of mergers involving public targets. We also find that a financial crisis period strongly affects abnormal returns of merger withdrawals. However, the method of payment does not have any impact on the abnormal returns.

Trade Creation or Trade Diversion in ASEAN and ASEAN+6 FTAs: Trade Indicators Approach

2015 ◽  
pp. 25-41
Author(s):  
Anh Tu Thuy ◽  
Ngoc Le Minh
Keyword(s):  
Comparative Advantage ◽  
Wheat Gluten ◽  
Free Trade Area ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Trade Diversion ◽  
Trade Creation ◽  
Public And Private ◽  
Trade Area ◽  
Economic Partnership ◽  
Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership

This paper makes use of two trade indicators, Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) and Regional Orientation (RO), to evaluate the economic impacts of the ASEAN Free Trade Area (The) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) on Vietnamese commodities at the Harmonized System (HS) 2-digit level. Several sectors in which Vietnam has revealed a comparative advantage, has benefited from the AFTA, and would continue to enjoy trade creation from the RCEP, are: Cereals (10), Salt, sulphur, earth, stone, plaster, lime and cement (25), Rubber (40), Knitted or crocheted fabric (60), etc. More importantly, the result provides a list of commodities in which Vietnam has a comparative advantage and only experiences trade creation when participating in the RCEP. These are: Milling products, malt, starches, inulin, wheat gluten (11), Vegetable plaiting materials, vegetable products not elsewhere specified (14), Wood and articles of wood, wood charcoal (44), etc. Findings also show commodities in which Vietnam has a comparative advantage; but are not well positioned in the RCEP market yet, e.g. Cereal, flour, starch, milk preparations and products (19) and Manmade staple fibres (55). If sufficient investment decisions and marketing strategies are applied to these commodities, they will well penetrate the RCEP market and bring trade creation and welfare improvement to Vietnam. Public and private investment should consider the above-mentioned commodities as targets to leapfrog the benefits of RCEP.

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