Has The Accuracy of Macroeconomic Forecasts for Germany Improved?

2013 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 235-253 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ullrich Heilemann ◽  
Herman O. Stekler
Keyword(s):  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Macroeconometric Model ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
One Year ◽  
The U.S ◽  
Over Time

Abstract This study asks whether the accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts for Germany has improved over time. We examine one-year-ahead forecasts of rates of real GDP growth and inflation for the years 1967-2010, by three major German forecasters and the OECD. We find that overall error levels are high but not much different from those of the U.S. and U.K. In the 1980s and 1990s accuracy improved somewhat, but has now returned to its 1970s level, indicating that it reflects the variance of growth and inflation. Benchmark comparisons with these predictions with ex post forecasts of a macroeconometric model indicate that accuracy can be improved, but it will be difficult to achieve.

Are the Forecasts of Professionals Compatible with the Taylor Rule? Evidence from the Euro Area

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-20
Author(s):  
Robert L. Czudaj
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
European Central Bank ◽  
Taylor Rule ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Monetary Policy Shocks ◽  
European Central ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Policy Shocks ◽  
Micro Level ◽  
Over Time

Abstract This article examines if professional forecasters form their expectations regarding the policy rate of the European Central Bank (ECB) consistent with the Taylor rule. In doing so, we assess micro-level data including individual forecasts for the ECB main refinancing operations rate as well as inflation and gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the Euro Area. Our results indicate that professionals indeed form their expectations in line with the Taylor rule. However, this connection has diminished over time, especially after the policy rate hit the zero lower bound. In addition, we also find a relationship between forecasters’ disagreement regarding the policy rate of the ECB and disagreement on future GDP growth, which disappears when controlling for monetary policy shocks proxied by changes in the policy rate in the quarter the forecasts are made.

What Would Make Morocco an Emerging Economy?

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (6) ◽  
pp. 1-18
Author(s):  
Ahmed Naciri
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Purchasing Power Parity ◽  
Economic Freedom ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Power Parity ◽  
Per Capita Gdp ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Rich Countries ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Do So

Morocco is steadily progressing toward development and may well join the ranks of rich countries as early as in 2022. We perform least squares regressions on a sample of 12 components of economic freedom, for a total of 375 observations over 25 years (1995-2019). We also consider Morocco’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in USD billion, Morocco’s GDP growth as a percentage of change (pcGDP)and Morocco’s per capita GDP based on purchasing power parity (PPP) in USD for the last 25 years. The empirical evidence shows that during this period, Morocco achieved an enviable level of performance by increasing its GDP by 455%, despite the strong demographic pressures exerted by 35% population growth.[1]    However, the country’s performance in relation to some components of its economic freedom was so weak that it may end up jeopardizing this economic development momentum, as expressed by the behaviour of its pcGDP and the increase of this value over time. Morocco must introduce some fundamental changes in its economic freedom policies if it wishes to continue to progress. Fortunately, the country appears to have the determination to do so.   [1]According to the IMF, Morocco’s population grew from 26.7995 million in 1995 to 36.47 million in 2019, an increase of 36%.  

scholarly journals Asymmetric Shocks in the Euro Area: Convergence or Divergence?

2017 ◽  
Vol 53 (3) ◽  
pp. 7-25
Author(s):  
Dariusz K. Rosati
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Asymmetric Shocks ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
Structural Divergence ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Over Time

Abstract The degree of structural divergence in the Euro Area is examined on the basis of the frequency and distribution of observed asymmetric shocks over the period 1996–2015. An asymmetric shock is defined as an opposite sign difference between the deviation of an individual country’s GDP growth rate from a trend and the deviation of the EA-wide GDP growth rate from a trend. Two measures of asymmetric shocks are introduced, one based on exponential trend values and another on moving-average trend values. Geographical distribution of observed (“revealed”) shocks shows that EA member countries differ in terms of structural convergence, with a higher number of asymmetric shocks in countries that joined the EA at a later date. The distribution of asymmetric shocks over time shows two peaks in the number of shocks around 2002 and 2011, but no clear tendency towards more divergence is detected. As actual data may not provide a full picture of asymmetric shocks (given that countries with sufficient fiscal space could have neutralized their negative impact on GDP growth rates) a hypothesis on the existence of “non-revealed” negative asymmetric shocks is examined. Testing for correlation between public debt levels and GDP growth rate deviations confirms the existence of “non-revealed” asymmetric shocks in low-debt countries. In general, the observed differences in the number of asymmetric shocks in EA member countries (and their increases over time) may actually reflect different fiscal policy reactions in individual countries as well as the impact of financial and debt crises, and are not necessarily an indication of widening structural divergence across the EA.

Slowing life history (K) can account for increasing micro-innovation rates and GDP growth, but not macro-innovation rates, which declined following the end of the Industrial Revolution

2019 ◽  
Vol 42 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael A. Woodley of Menie ◽  
Aurelio José Figueredo ◽  
Matthew A. Sarraf
Keyword(s):  
Life History ◽  
Population Density ◽  
Industrial Revolution ◽  
High Population ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
General Intelligence ◽  
High Population Density ◽  
Economic Specialization ◽  
Over Time

Abstract Baumard proposes that life history slowing in populations over time is the principal driver of innovation rates. We show that this is only true of micro-innovation rates, which reflect cognitive and economic specialization as an adaptation to high population density, and not macro-innovation rates, which relate more to a population's level of general intelligence.

scholarly journals Planned Fiscal Consolidations and Growth Forecast Errors – New Panel Evidence on Fiscal Multipliers

2015 ◽  
Vol 66 (1) ◽  
pp. 47-70
Author(s):  
Ansgar Belke ◽  
Dominik Kronen ◽  
Thomas Osowski
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Cross Section ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Forecast Errors ◽  
Learning Effects ◽  
Fiscal Consolidation ◽  
Fiscal Multipliers ◽  
Fiscal Consolidations ◽  
Over Time

Abstract This paper analyzes the effect of planned fiscal consolidation on GDP growth forecast errors from the years 2010-2013 using cross section analyses and fixed effects estimations. Our main findings are that fiscal multipliers have been underestimated in most instances for the year 2011 while we find little to no evidence for the years 2010 and especially the latter years 2012/13. Since the underestimation of fiscal multipliers seems to have decreased over time, it may indicate learning effects of forecasters. However, the implications for fiscal policy should be considered with caution as a false forecast of fiscal multipliers does not confirm that austerity is the wrong fiscal approach but only suggests a too optimistic assessment of fiscal multipliers for the year 2011.

The Relationship Among Poverty, Economic Growth, and Inequality Revisited

2008 ◽  
pp. 5
Author(s):  
Lonnie K. Stevans ◽  
David N. Sessions
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
The United States ◽  
Poverty Rate ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Formal Error ◽  
The 1960S ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Over Time

It has been shown in prior research that increased economic growth reduces poverty. Authors have also found that the effect of growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on poverty growth has either diminished or remained unchanged over time, and economic expansion in the 1980s in the United States had no affect on poverty. Using a formal error-correction model, we find that increases in economic growth are significantly related to reductions in the poverty rate for all families. Specifically, GDP growth was found to have a more pronounced effect on poverty during the expansionary periods of the 1960s, 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s. Other findings include identification of determinants of the dynamic behavior of poverty rates both in the yearto- year periods and over the long run.

The UK Economy

1995 ◽  
Vol 153 ◽  
pp. 9-29
Author(s):  
Garry Young
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Similar Pattern ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Aggregate Level ◽  
Retail Sales ◽  
G7 Countries ◽  
Economic News ◽  
The Uk

Most of the economic news since our last forecast in May points to an earlier reduction in the rate of economic growth in the UK than we had been expecting at that time. At the aggregate level, GDP growth for the first quarter of the year was revised downwards slightly to 0.7 per cent and growth in the second quarter is estimated to have fallen to 0.6 per cent. Recent business surveys indicate less optimism than was apparent in the earlier part of the year. Other recent figures are indicative of a lack of optimism among households: the weakness of retail sales has continued, house prices have fallen again and the decline in the level of unemployment has abated. A similar pattern is being observed outside of the UK with growth falling more quickly than expected in most of the G7 countries.

scholarly journals An Estimate of the Impacts of the Bank of England’s Quantitative Easing Programme on UK Economic Growth

2018 ◽  
Vol 25 (3) ◽  
pp. 51-65
Author(s):  
Sławomir I. Bukowski ◽  
Robin Gowers
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Small Degree ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Quantitative Easing ◽  
Policy Tool ◽  
Bank Of England ◽  
Macroeconomic Impacts ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Over Time

This paper reviews the reasons for and impacts of quantitative easing by the Bank of England.  It analyses the macroeconomic impacts of this policy tool on the UK economy across the period 2008-16.  It compares the impacts of each round of quantitative easing to assess how the impacts changed over time. The authors implemented econometric analysis based on the VAR model. This analysis indicated that the Bank of England’s monetary policy influenced GDP growth by a relatively small degree during the period studied. The impact of changes in the monetary base (M3) explained a bigger part of GDP growth than the decreases in interest rates and exchange rates.  Over time the impact of this policy response diminished.

scholarly journals Household Debt and Aging in Japan

2020 ◽  
pp. 207-225
Author(s):  
Charles Yuji Horioka ◽  
Yoko Niimi
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Household Head ◽  
The Other ◽  
Household Debt ◽  
Financial Health ◽  
G7 Countries ◽  
Loan Market ◽  
Group Of Seven ◽  
Over Time

This chapter analyzes the borrowing behavior of Japanese households compared to the other Group of Seven (G7) countries, and it also evaluates patterns by the age of the household head. In Japan, pre-retirees (age 50–59) do not carry high amounts of debt, and their financial health is satisfactory. By contrast, households with a head age 30–39 have taken on sharply more debt holdings in recent years, due partly to the fact that tax breaks for housing purchase, reforms in the housing loan market since the early 2000s, and expansionary monetary policy enabled Japanese households to purchase housing younger than previously. As a consequence, households have become more vulnerable to rising interest rates over time.

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