Kosovo’s GDP growth has been resilient to external shocks thanks to strong growth in consumption demand

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Gdp Growth ◽  
External Shocks ◽  
Strong Growth ◽  
Consumption Demand

Argentina currency crisis highlights policy vacuum

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
External Shocks ◽  
Foreign Investors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Electoral Success ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Weak Exchange ◽  
Capital Outflows ◽  
Financial Environment

Significance In recent days a severe currency run drove a 12.2% depreciation of the peso and an estimated fall of nearly 5 billion dollars in international reserves (8% of that stock). The Bank has raised rates by 600 bp in only a few days, but this has not stopped the run. The crisis highlights Argentina’s vulnerability to external shocks, but has also been driven by domestic errors, such as the BCRA’s loss of reputation and the implementation of a tax on Lebacs (BCRA notes), an asset that had attracted many foreign investors. Impacts The weak exchange rate will boost inflation, while capital outflows will drive real GDP growth estimates down. A less benign global financial environment will limit the government’s gradualist strategy. The government’s ability to overcome the crisis will condition its chances of electoral success in 2019.

Section II. The forecast in detail

2002 ◽  
Vol 181 ◽  
pp. 55-68
Keyword(s):  
Industrial Production ◽  
Service Sector ◽  
Industrial Sector ◽  
Export Growth ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Trade Data ◽  
Strong Growth ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
External Demand ◽  
Bounce Back

It seems likely that the economy expanded rapidly in the second quarter following a virtual standstill in GDP growth in the two quarters at the turn of the year. The bounce back in growth is likely to be somewhat stronger than we had anticipated in April. Our estimates of monthly GDP suggest that the economy grew by 1.2 per cent in the second quarter of 2002 led by strong growth in industrial production of 1.7 per cent. Output in the private service sector is also estimated to have risen rapidly by 1.4 per cent. The pick-up in the industrial sector in the second quarter is primarily a consequence of stronger external demand. Trade data to May suggest that growth in export volumes rose markedly in the first two months of the second quarter. We expect that export volumes rose by just under 5 per cent in the quarter as a whole, increasing GDP by around 1½ per cent. At the same time growth in the demand for imports has risen, albeit by less than the acceleration in export growth. Net trade is expected to have added 0.75 percentage points to GDP growth in the second quarter.

Prospects for the UK Economy

2010 ◽  
Vol 214 ◽  
pp. F41-F60
Author(s):  
Simon Kirby ◽  
Ray Barrell ◽  
Rachel Whitworth
Keyword(s):  
Public Sector ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Fiscal Consolidation ◽  
Balance Sheets ◽  
Strong Growth ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Third ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Negative Output

The UK economy has now enjoyed four consecutive quarters of expansion. Indeed GDP growth reached 1.2 per cent in the second quarter of this year, the fastest rate of growth in over a decade. The National Institute's estimate of monthly GDP suggests that the economy continued to expand in the third quarter of this year, but at a more modest pace of 0.5 per cent (see figure 1). Such a slowdown should not have come as a surprise. Persistently strong growth is unlikely in an economy where household balance sheets are still undergoing repair, funding channels to business remain impaired and the public sector is embarking on a significant programme of fiscal consolidation. However, we continue to think the chances of negative output growth in 2011 are about one in five and hence a double dip recession is unlikely.

scholarly journals CAUSES OF FINANCIAL CRISIS: THE CASE OF LATVIA

Ekonomika ◽  
2010 ◽  
Vol 89 (2) ◽  
pp. 7-27 ◽  
Author(s):  
Violeta Klyvienė ◽  
Lars Tranberg Rasmussen
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Structural Features ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
External Shocks ◽  
Capital Deepening ◽  
Pros And Cons ◽  
Policy Measures ◽  
Productivity Gains ◽  
Boom Period ◽  
Deep Recession

In this paper, we review how Latvia developed during the boom period and discuss the key structural features of the Latvian economy. We show that a combination of monetary and fiscal expansion contributed to a greater vulnerability to external shocks. We also show that the GDP growth was largely driven by capital deepening, while productivity gains played a significantly smaller role. As a result, one of the most important explanations for the exceptionally deep recession in Latvia should be distortions in the non-traded sectors of the economy. Finally, we give a brief analysis on policy measures that have been taken to correct the distortions and possible pros and cons of an external devaluation.

scholarly journals Factors of the European Economies' Vulnerability to External Shocks - An Empirical Analysis. The Example of 2008-2009 Crisis Costs

2014 ◽  
Vol 40 (1) ◽  
pp. 72-95
Author(s):  
Agnieszka Domańska ◽  
Dobromił Serwa
Keyword(s):  
Regression Model ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Banking System ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
External Shocks ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
European Economies ◽  
High Share

Abstract The article analyses the factors determining the vulnerability of the European countries to external shocks taking the example of the global 2008-2009 economic slowdown (also called the subprime crisis2) and its impact on economies in Europe. The particular attention is attached to factors related to the fundamentals of the economy, i.e. the GDP growth, fiscal and monetary stability and external stability. Attempting to level of the gap existing in the Polish literature in the empirical research on that problem, the hereby article also refers to wider problems of the macroeconomic factors enhancing economies' capabilities to meet the challenges of global crises and strengthening their competitiveness afterwards. The special attention in the paper was attached to the role of financial and trade openness. In the empirical study we have assessed the macroeconomic “outside” of the crisis in the European economies and then we have run the regression model process to estimate the factors determining the exposure to those costs in cross-country perspective. The above mentioned macroeconomic costs are the relative falls (“gaps”) in GDP, i.e. the difference between the hypothetical GDP (resulting from the average mid-term trend) in 2008-2009 and actual GDP incurred in those two “crisis years”. In the regression model (crisis costs as the explained variable) we used the chosen data and indicators denoting the potential factors of the European countries' exposure to 2007-2009 crisis shock as explanatory variables. As the calculation results show, the variables that contributed to higher 2008-2009 crisis effects in the European countries were among others: high unemployment and high real interest rates, considerable government sector debt before the crisis, high economic development level, high share of nonperforming credit portfolio and high share of equity in the banking sector's assets (signifying a relatively poorly developed banking system), as well as good quality of law. Greater costs of the 2007-2009 crisis were (on average) incurred by countries experiencing high inflation, rapid GDP growth (as compared to the other sample countries), and considerable share of investment in GDP before crisis, and the economies which were characterized by above-average industry concentration and high development of stock exchange and bank market. The study leads to a general conclusion that in case of the European countries, the recession only highlighted and enhanced many problems and unfavorable tendencies which had existed before.

China: "A Bee Has a Stripy Back, but No One Can Call It a Tiger"

2003 ◽  
pp. 61-75
Author(s):  
V. Guelbras
Keyword(s):  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
International Demand ◽  
Real Size ◽  
Rates Of Growth

The article is devoted to verification of the Chinese GDP data. The author compares the rates of GDP growth with the rates of growth of energy consumption, transport turnover of goods, and numbers of projected and constructed objects in 1980-2000. The former was significantly lower during that period. He also analyses the level of using productive capacities and the quality of production. About 25-30% of industrial productive capacities are not used because there is neither national nor international demand for their low quality goods. The main conclusion of the article is that the Chinese GDP real size is about 20-30% less than official releases.

Impacts of Paris Agreement on Russian economy

2018 ◽  
pp. 76-94 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. A. Makarov ◽  
C. Henry ◽  
V. P. Sergey
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Economic Policy ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Climate Policies

The paper applies multiregional CGE Economic Policy Projection and Analysis (EPPA) model to analyze major risks the Paris Agreement on climate change adopted in 2015 brings to Russia. The authors come to the conclusion that if parties of the Agreement meet their targets that were set for 2030 it may lead to the decrease of average annual GDP growth rates by 0.2-0.3 p. p. Stricter climate policies beyond this year would bring GDP growth rates reduction in2035-2050 by additional 0.5 p. p. If Russia doesn’t ratify Paris Agreement, these losses may increase. In order to mitigate these risks, diversification of Russian economy is required.

Two Years after the Crisis: Do Risks of the Second Wave Become Stronger?

2011 ◽  
pp. 4-20
Author(s):  
M. Ershov
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
World Economy ◽  
External Shocks ◽  
Global Imbalances ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
The World ◽  
The Future ◽  
Second Wave

With signs of normalization seemingly in place in the world economy, a number of problems show the possibility of aggravation in the future. The volume of derivatives in American banks grows significantly, high risk instruments are back in place and their use becomes more active, global imbalances increase. All of the above requires thorough approaches when creating mechanisms which can neutralize external shocks for the Russian economy and make it possible to develop in the new post-crisis environment.

Oil, Rates and Inflation

2005 ◽  
pp. 4-20
Author(s):  
E. Yasin
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Raw Materials ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Business Activity ◽  
Demand For Money ◽  
Percentage Points

Currency inflow in Russia from raw materials exports allows taking into account high business activity to assimilate growing money supply transforming it into economic growth. Fall in business activity as a result of pressure on business led to saturation of demand for money. This considerably increases the danger of inflation growth and requires sterilization of excess money supply including the usage of the Stabilization Fund. According to the author's estimates, corresponding losses in GDP growth will equal 1-2 percentage points per year.

Fiscal rules: Excessive limitation or indispensable instrument of fiscal sustainability?

2016 ◽  
pp. 5-29 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Gurvich ◽  
I. Sokolov
Keyword(s):  
Historical Data ◽  
Federal Budget ◽  
Fiscal Sustainability ◽  
Fiscal Rules ◽  
External Shocks ◽  
Base Price ◽  
Depth Analysis ◽  
Fiscal Balance ◽  
Lower Size ◽  
Budget Expenditure

In-depth analysis of international and Russia’s experiences with implementing fiscal rules is presented. Theoretical and empirical evidences are suggested in favor of retaining the present fiscal rules with some modifications aimed at ensuring: a) a relatively stable level of federal budget expenditure with guaranteed full execution of all commitments; b) countercyclical fiscal policy, based on flexibleand proper reaction to revenue changes; and c) robustness of fiscal rules to internal and external shocks. The main new features suggested include modified calculation of the oil base price, different measurement of cyclical fiscal revenues, lower size of structural fiscal balance, and thorough specification of sources for each item of the balance. The modified rules envisage increased flexibility by relaxing to a pre-set extent and for a pre-set time spending limits in response to extreme shocks. The suggested version of fiscal rules has been tested by application to historical data for 2005-2015, and macro projections for 2015-2025.

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