Higher nominal GDP growth could create additional fiscal space in the medium term if monetary policy does not react

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Fiscal Space

Europe’s Economic Future: Europe Can Grow Faster

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 187-197
Author(s):  
Antonio de Lecea
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Growth Model ◽  
External Factors ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Potential Growth ◽  
Net Benefits ◽  
Fiscal Space ◽  
Economic Future

Europe’s GDP growth is gathering pace as a consequence of both sound policies and external factors. Forecasts are being revised upwards even though they keep potential growth estimates low. This article argues that there are good reasons to expect a scenario with higher medium term growth, where reforms are accelerated, and increases in investment, productivity, and labor participation offset the decline in population and temporary legacies from the crisis. Several studies show the big growth gains from this scenario. Moreover, experience in various European countries confirms that it is feasible. Reforms are underpinned by the current accommodative monetary policy and by a responsible, but more flexible, fiscal policy stance that smoothens adjustment, improves fairness, and supports demand in countries with fiscal space. Successes in growth-enhancing reforms, better awareness of their potential net benefits, and more attention to prevent or reduce negative distributional effects, may restore trust and garner citizens’ support for this growth model. They may also help overcome the obstacles to further integration that should make this model more robust.

scholarly journals Albania

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (29) ◽  
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Structural Reforms ◽  
Policy Mix ◽  
Fiscal Consolidation ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Gradual Reduction ◽  
Growth Promoting ◽  
The Right

Despite robust GDP growth, projected at 4 percent in 2018, inflation remains below its 3 percent target. The fiscal deficit has stabilized around 2 percent of GDP, implying a modest gradual reduction in public debt, which remains high at close to 70 percent of GDP. Monetary policy was relaxed further in June 2018 following a rapid appreciation of the exchange rate. The current account deficit has moderated over recent years, to about 6.5 percent of GDP. The outlook is mostly positive, with GDP growth projected to converge to 4 percent over the medium term, with inflation stabilizing around its target by 2021. Further fiscal consolidation and an accommodative monetary policy, combined with growth-promoting structural reforms represent the right policy mix.

Financial and monetary policy of the State and its impact on the income level and poverty reduction in Russia

2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (5) ◽  
pp. 964-990
Author(s):  
N.I. Kulikov ◽  
V.L. Parkhomenko ◽  
Akun Anna Stefani Rozi Mobio
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Household Income ◽  
Poverty Reduction ◽  
The State ◽  
Financial Policy ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Tax Rate ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

Subject. We assess the impact of tight financial and monetary policy of the government of the Russian Federation and the Bank of Russia on the level of household income and poverty reduction in Russia. Objectives. The purpose of the study is to analyze the results of financial and monetary policy in Russia and determine why the situation with household income and poverty has not changed for the recent six years, and the GDP growth rate in Russia is significantly lagging behind the global average. Methods. The study employs methods of analysis of scientific and information base, and synthesis of obtained data. The methodology and theoretical framework draw upon works of domestic and foreign scientists on economic and financial support to economy and population’s income. Results. We offer measures for liberalization of the financial and monetary policy of the government and the Central Bank to ensure changes in the structure of the Russian economy. The proposed alternative economic and financial policy of the State will enable the growth of real incomes of the population, poverty reduction by half by 2024, and annual GDP growth up to 6 per cent. Conclusions. It is crucial to change budget priorities, increase the salaries of public employees, introduce a progressive tax rate for individuals; to reduce the key rate to the value of annual inflation and limit the bank margin. The country needs a phased program to increase the population's income, which will ensure consumer demand.

CREDIT CYCLES IN COUNTRIES IN THE MENA REGION — DO THEY EXIST? DO THEY MATTER?

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (01) ◽  
pp. 2050001
Author(s):  
LEILA AGHABARARI ◽  
AHMED ROSTOM
Keyword(s):  
Spectral Analysis ◽  
Middle East ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
North Africa ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Mena Region ◽  
Credit Growth ◽  
Credit Cycles

This paper estimates the private sector credit cycles for most of the oil-importing and oil-exporting countries in the Middle East and North Africa. Credit cycles are the medium-term component in spectral analysis of real private sector credit growth. Besides, the paper estimates the credit cycles for several developed countries. The analysis finds substantial differences and rare similarities between credit cycles in the Middle East and North Africa and advanced countries. During 1964–2017, credit cycles in the Middle East and North Africa do not appear to be associated with GDP growth. They only explained a fraction of the growth in private sector credit, and they do not seem to be synchronized across oil-exporters and oil-importers.

Bhutan - Assessment Letter for the World Bank

Policy Papers ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 2012 (97) ◽  
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
World Bank ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
The World Bank ◽  
The World ◽  
The Current Account

Bhutan's growth has remained robust, but the current account deficit has widened. • Bhutan's economy has expanded at a robust pace driven by the hydropower sector developments. GDP growth is estimated at nearly 8 percent in 2011/12 (from 8.5 percent in 2010/11), and is projected to reach 12.5 percent in 2012/13 due to the acceleration in hydropower-related construction. Inflation has risen, reaching 13.5 percent in 2012Q2, with both food and nonfood components accelerating. Bhutan’s medium-term outlook is favorable, as growth should remain strong at around 8-9 percent over the medium term, driven by developments in the hydropower sector, manufacturing, and domestic services.

Future Nigeria cabinet will not solve economic crunch

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Federal Agencies ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
National Bureau ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Regional Bias ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reform Agenda ◽  
Chief Of Staff ◽  
The North ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject Economic outlook for Nigeria. Significance The National Bureau of Statistics on August 26 announced that GDP growth slowed to 2.35% year-on-year in the second quarter, from 6.54% in the year-earlier period. This is the lowest figure since quarterly records began in 2006. It adds pressure on President Muhammadu Buhari to articulate a detailed, medium-term plan to revive growth. Impacts Buhari's cabinet appointments are likely to reflect the technocrat character of those recently appointed as heads of lead federal agencies. However, if personnel choices also continue to be drawn primarily from the north, domestic unease will grow over a regional bias. Despite his credentials, Buhari's new Chief of Staff Alhaji Abba Kyari may face difficulties negotiating the government's reform agenda.

Iran will struggle to create a ‘resistance economy’

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Asia ◽  
Fiscal Year ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Crowding Out ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investor Confidence ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Defence Spending ◽  
Supreme Leader

Subject The Iranian budget. Significance Speeches marking the Iranian New Year (Nowruz) on March 21 highlighted disagreements between Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and President Hassan Rouhani. While both promoted a ‘resistance economy’, each meant something different. The recently published budget for the 2017-18 fiscal year highlights divisions and linkages between the two philosophies. Impacts Real GDP growth in 2017 will not be much above 3.0% and will rise to 4.5% in the medium term. Rising tensions with Washington will further boost defence spending, crowding out development. Additional US congressional sanctions, or even threat of sanctions, are likely to depress investor confidence. New transport links to Central Asia may significantly increase trade.

Corruption may undermine Kenyan government credibility

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Political System ◽  
Zero Tolerance ◽  
The Political ◽  
Public Confidence ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Foreign Investors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Government Institutions

Significance Kenya has been rocked by a string of corruption scandals in government institutions over recent weeks. The episode has served as a powerful reminder to both ordinary Kenyans and foreign investors that public-sector corruption remains pervasive -- and that President Uhuru Kenyatta’s government has failed to make significant inroads on the issue despite its rhetorical claims of ‘zero tolerance’. Impacts The lack of progress in anti-corruption efforts will raise concern among donor countries. Along with other barriers, evidence of corruption will limit FDI and constrain GDP growth in the medium term. Failure to tackle graft will erode public confidence in the political system, leading to further civil society protests.

Prospects for emerging economies to end-2019

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Trade Policy ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
World Trade ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Trade Policy ◽  
Policy Shift

Subject Prospects for emerging economies to end-2019. Significance US trade policy is hardening and while the direction remains uncertain, a sustained softening seems unlikely. Monetary policy is shifting towards easing in many emerging markets (EMs) and some are expanding fiscal policy. However, the policy shift will not compensate for weaker world trade and EM GDP growth is expected to slow from 4.5% last year, already a three-year low, to closer to the 4.3% seen in 2015 or even weaker.

The Macroeconomic Record of the Coalition Government

2015 ◽  
Vol 231 ◽  
pp. R5-R16 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simon Wren-Lewis
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Coalition Government ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Eurozone Crisis ◽  
Fiscal Consolidation ◽  
Liquidity Trap ◽  
Liberal Democrats ◽  
The Uk

This paper examines the outcomes for changes introduced by the UK Coalition government in 2010. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) is generally regarded as a success, and should become a permanent part of fiscal policymaking. The form of the primary fiscal mandate, involving a five-year rolling target, appears to be a sensible way to shape fiscal decisions when monetary policy is able to stabilise the economy. Unfortunately it was introduced, along with a five-year programme of severe fiscal consolidation (austerity), while the economy was in a liquidity trap. The OBR estimates austerity reduced GDP growth by 1 per cent in both 2010–11 and 2011–12, and monetary policy was unable to offset this. For the Liberal Democrats a misreading of the Eurozone crisis may have been responsible for this mistake, but for the Conservatives this mistake appears to derive from an unconventional view that the liquidity trap is unimportant.

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