Monte Carlo simulation of peak-acceleration attenuation using a finite-fault uniform-patch model including isochrone and extremal characteristics

1996 ◽  
Vol 86 (1A) ◽  
pp. 79-92 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. M. Rogers ◽  
D. M. Perkins

Abstract A finite-fault statistical model of the earthquake source is used to confirm observed magnitude and distance saturation scaling in a large peak-acceleration data set. This model allows us to determine the form of peak-acceleration attenuation curves without a priori assumptions about their shape or scaling properties. The source is composed of patches having uniform size and statistical properties. The primary source parameters are the patch peak-acceleration distribution mean, the distribution standard deviation, the patch size, and patch-rupture duration. Although our model assumes no scaling of peak acceleration with magnitude at the patch, the peak-acceleration attenuation curves, nevertheless, strongly scale with magnitude (dap/dM) ≠ 0, and the scaling is distance dependent (dap/dM) ∝ f(r). The distance-dependent magnitude scaling arises from two principal sources in the model. For a propagating rupture, loci exist on the fault from which radiated energy arrives at a particular station at the same time. These loci are referred to as isochrones. As fault size increases, the length of the isochrones and, hence, the number of additive pulses increase. Thus, peak accelerations increase with magnitude. The second effect, which arises in a completely different manner, is due to extreme-value properties. That is, as the fault size increases, the number of patches on the fault and the number of peak values at the station increase. Because these attenuated pulses are produced by a statistical distribution at the patch, the largest value will depend on the total number of peak values available on the seismogram. We refer to this result as the extremal effect, because it is predicted by the theory of extreme values. Both the extremal and isochrone effects are moderated by attenuation and distance to the fault, leading to magnitude- and distance-dependent peak-acceleration scaling. Remarkably, the scaling produced by both effects is very similar, although the underlying mechanisms are completely different. Because this model approximates data characteristics we have observed in an earlier study, we adjusted the parameters of the model to fit a set of smoothed peak accelerations from earthquakes worldwide. These data have not been preselected for particular magnitude or distance ranges and contain earthquake records for magnitudes ranging from about M 3 to M 8 and distance ranging from a few kilometers to about 400 km. In fitting the data, we use a trial-and-error procedure, varying the mean and standard deviation of the patch peak-acceleration distribution, the patch size, and the pulse duration. The model explicitly includes triggering bias, and the triggering threshold is also a model parameter. The data can be approximated equally well by a model that includes the isochrone effect alone, the extremal effect alone, or both effects. Inclusion of both effects is likely to be closest to reality, but because both effects produce similar results, it is not possible to determine the relative contribution of each one. In any case, the model approximates the complex features of the observed data, including a decrease in magnitude scaling with increasing magnitude at short distances and increase in magnitude scaling with magnitude at large distances.

Author(s):  
Diaz Juan Navia ◽  
Diaz Juan Navia ◽  
Bolaños Nancy Villegas ◽  
Bolaños Nancy Villegas ◽  
Igor Malikov ◽  
...  

Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies (SSTA), in four coastal hydrographic stations of Colombian Pacific Ocean, were analyzed. The selected hydrographic stations were: Tumaco (1°48'N-78°45'W), Gorgona island (2°58'N-78°11'W), Solano Bay (6°13'N-77°24'W) and Malpelo island (4°0'N-81°36'W). SSTA time series for 1960-2015 were calculated from monthly Sea Surface Temperature obtained from International Comprehensive Ocean Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS). SSTA time series, Oceanic Nino Index (ONI), Pacific Decadal Oscillation index (PDO), Arctic Oscillation index (AO) and sunspots number (associated to solar activity), were compared. It was found that the SSTA absolute minimum has occurred in Tumaco (-3.93°C) in March 2009, in Gorgona (-3.71°C) in October 2007, in Solano Bay (-4.23°C) in April 2014 and Malpelo (-4.21°C) in December 2005. The SSTA absolute maximum was observed in Tumaco (3.45°C) in January 2002, in Gorgona (5.01°C) in July 1978, in Solano Bay (5.27°C) in March 1998 and Malpelo (3.64°C) in July 2015. A high correlation between SST and ONI in large part of study period, followed by a good correlation with PDO, was identified. The AO and SSTA have showed an inverse relationship in some periods. Solar Cycle has showed to be a modulator of behavior of SSTA in the selected stations. It was determined that extreme values of SST are related to the analyzed large scale oscillations.


Author(s):  
Ping He ◽  
Yangmao Wen ◽  
Shuiping Li ◽  
Kaihua Ding ◽  
Zhicai Li ◽  
...  

Summary As the largest and most active intracontinental orogenic belt on Earth, the Tien Shan (TS) is a natural laboratory for understanding the Cenozoic orogenic processes driven by the India-Asia collision. On 19 January 2020, a Mw 6.1 event stuck the Kalpin region, where the southern frontal TS interacts with the Tarim basin. To probe the local ongoing orogenic processes and potential seismic hazard in the Kalpin region, both interseismic and instantaneous deformation derived from geodetic observations are employed in this study. With the constraint of interseismic global navigation satellite system (GNSS) velocities, we estimate the décollement plane parameters of the western Kalpin nappe based on a two-dimensional dislocation model, and the results suggest that the décollement plane is nearly subhorizontal with a dip of ∼3° at a depth of 24 km. Then, we collect both Sentinel-1 and ALOS-2 satellite images to capture the coseismic displacements caused by the 2020 Kalpin event, and the interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) images show a maximum displacement of 7 cm in the line of sight near the epicentral region. With these coseismic displacement measurements, we invert the source parameters of this event using a finite-fault model. We determine the optimal source mechanism in which the fault geometry is dominated by thrust faulting with an E–W strike of 275° and a northward dip of 11.2°, and the main rupture slip is concentrated within an area 28.0 km in length and${\rm{\,\,}}$10.3 km in width, with a maximum slip of 0.3 m at a depth of 6–8 km. The total released moment of our preferred distributed slip model yields a geodetic moment of 1.59 × 1018 N$\cdot $m, equivalent to Mw 6.1. The contrast of the décollement plane depth from interseismic GNSS and the rupture depth from coseismic InSAR suggests that a compression still exists in the Kalpin nappe forefront, which is prone to frequent moderate events and may be at risk of a much more dangerous earthquake.


2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 941-963 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Vlemmix ◽  
F. Hendrick ◽  
G. Pinardi ◽  
I. De Smedt ◽  
C. Fayt ◽  
...  

Abstract. A 4-year data set of MAX-DOAS observations in the Beijing area (2008–2012) is analysed with a focus on NO2, HCHO and aerosols. Two very different retrieval methods are applied. Method A describes the tropospheric profile with 13 layers and makes use of the optimal estimation method. Method B uses 2–4 parameters to describe the tropospheric profile and an inversion based on a least-squares fit. For each constituent (NO2, HCHO and aerosols) the retrieval outcomes are compared in terms of tropospheric column densities, surface concentrations and "characteristic profile heights" (i.e. the height below which 75% of the vertically integrated tropospheric column density resides). We find best agreement between the two methods for tropospheric NO2 column densities, with a standard deviation of relative differences below 10%, a correlation of 0.99 and a linear regression with a slope of 1.03. For tropospheric HCHO column densities we find a similar slope, but also a systematic bias of almost 10% which is likely related to differences in profile height. Aerosol optical depths (AODs) retrieved with method B are 20% high compared to method A. They are more in agreement with AERONET measurements, which are on average only 5% lower, however with considerable relative differences (standard deviation ~ 25%). With respect to near-surface volume mixing ratios and aerosol extinction we find considerably larger relative differences: 10 ± 30, −23 ± 28 and −8 ± 33% for aerosols, HCHO and NO2 respectively. The frequency distributions of these near-surface concentrations show however a quite good agreement, and this indicates that near-surface concentrations derived from MAX-DOAS are certainly useful in a climatological sense. A major difference between the two methods is the dynamic range of retrieved characteristic profile heights which is larger for method B than for method A. This effect is most pronounced for HCHO, where retrieved profile shapes with method A are very close to the a priori, and moderate for NO2 and aerosol extinction which on average show quite good agreement for characteristic profile heights below 1.5 km. One of the main advantages of method A is the stability, even under suboptimal conditions (e.g. in the presence of clouds). Method B is generally more unstable and this explains probably a substantial part of the quite large relative differences between the two methods. However, despite a relatively low precision for individual profile retrievals it appears as if seasonally averaged profile heights retrieved with method B are less biased towards a priori assumptions than those retrieved with method A. This gives confidence in the result obtained with method B, namely that aerosol extinction profiles tend on average to be higher than NO2 profiles in spring and summer, whereas they seem on average to be of the same height in winter, a result which is especially relevant in relation to the validation of satellite retrievals.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Figen Eskikoy ◽  
Semih Ergintav ◽  
Uğur Dogan ◽  
Seda Özarpacı ◽  
Alpay Özdemir ◽  
...  

<p>On 2020 October 30, an M<sub>w</sub>6.9 earthquake struck offshore Samos Island. Severe structural damages were observed in Greek Islands and city of Izmir (Turkey). 114 people lost their lives and more than a thousand people were injured in Turkey. The earthquake triggered local tsunami. Significant seismic activity occurred in this region following the earthquake and ~1800 aftershocks (M>1) were recorded by KOERI within the first three days. In this study, we analyze the slip distribution and aftershocks of the 2020 earthquake.</p><p>For the aftershock relocations, the continuous waveforms were collected from NOA, Disaster and Emergency Management Authority of Turkey (AFAD) and KOERI networks. The database   was created based on merged catalogs from AFAD and KOERI. For estimating optimized aftershock location distribution, the P and S phases of the aftershocks are picked manually and relocated with double difference algorithm. In addition, source mechanisms of aftershocks M>4 are obtained from regional body and surface waveforms.</p><p>The surface deformation of the earthquake was obtained from both descending and ascending orbits of the Sentinel-1 A/B and ALOS2 satellites. Since the rupture zone is beneath the Gulf of Kusadası, earthquake related deformation in the interferograms can only be observed on the northern part of the Samos Island. We processed all possible pairs chose the image pairs with the lowest noise level.</p><p>In this study, we used 25 continuous GPS stations which are compiled from TUSAGA-Aktif in Turkey and NOANET in Greece. In addition to continuous GPS data, on 2020 November 1, GPS survey was initiated and the earthquake deformation was measured on 10 GNSS campaign sites (TUTGA), along onshore of Turkey.</p><p>The aim of this study is to estimate the spatial and temporal rupture evolution of the earthquake from geodetic data jointly with near field displacement waveforms. To do so, we use the Bayesian Earthquake Analysis Tool (BEAT).</p><p>As a first step of the study, rectangular source parameters were estimated by using GPS data. In order to estimate the slip distribution, we used both ascending and descending tracks of Sentinel-1 data, ALOS2 and GPS displacements. In our preliminary geodetic data based finite fault model, we used the results of focal mechanism and GPS data inversion solutions for the initial fault plane parameters. The slip distribution results indicate that earthquake rupture is ~35 km long and the maximum slip is ~2 m normal slip along a north dipping fault plane. This EW trending, ~45° north dipping normal faulting system consistent with this tectonic regime in the region. This seismically active area is part of a N-S extensional regime and controlled primarily by normal fault systems.</p><p><strong>Acknowledgements</strong></p><p>This work is supported by the Turkish Directorate of Strategy and Budget under the TAM Project number 2007K12-873.</p>


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nesrin Yenihayat ◽  
Eser Çaktı ◽  
Karin Şeşetyan

<p>One of the major earthquakes that resulted in intense damages in Istanbul and its neighborhoods took place on 10 July 1894. The 1894 earthquake resulted in 474 losses of life and 482 injuries. Around 21,000 dwellings were damaged, which is a number that corresponds to 1/7 of the total dwellings of the city at that time. Without any doubt, the exact loss of life was higher. Because of the censorship, the exact loss numbers remained unknown. There is still no consensus about its magnitude, epicentral location, and rupture of length. Even though the hardness of studying with historical records due to their uncertainties and discrepancies, researchers should enlighten the source parameters of the historical earthquakes to minimize the effect of future disasters especially for the cities located close to the most active fault lines as Istanbul. The main target of this study is to enlighten possible source properties of the 1894 earthquake with the help of observed damage distribution and stochastic ground motion simulations. In this paper, stochastic based ground motion scenarios will be performed for the 10 July 1894 Istanbul earthquake, using a finite fault simulation approach with a dynamic corner frequency and the results will be compared with our intensity map obtained from observed damage distributions. To do this, in the first step, obtained damage information from various sources has been presented, evaluated, and interpreted. Secondly, we prepared an intensity map associated with the 1894 earthquake based on macro-seismic information, and damage analysis and classification. For generating ground motions with a stochastic finite fault simulation approach, the EXSIM 2012 software has been used. Using EXSIM, several scenarios are modeled with different source, path, and site parameters. Initial source properties have been obtained from findings of our previous study on the simulation of the 26 September 2019 Silivri (Istanbul) earthquake with Mw 5.8. With the comparison of spatial distributions of the ground motion intensity parameters to the obtained damage and intensity maps, we estimate the optimum location and source parameters of the 1894 Earthquake.</p>


Author(s):  
Valentin Raileanu ◽  

The article briefly describes the history and fields of application of the theory of extreme values, including climatology. The data format, the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) probability distributions with Bock Maxima, the Generalized Pareto (GP) distributions with Point of Threshold (POT) and the analysis methods are presented. Estimating the distribution parameters is done using the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) method. Free R software installation, the minimum set of required commands and the GUI in2extRemes graphical package are described. As an example, the results of the GEV analysis of a simulated data set in in2extRemes are presented.


2005 ◽  
Vol 23 (3) ◽  
pp. 665-673 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. D. Zhang ◽  
F. Yi

Abstract. Several works concerning the dynamical and thermal structures and inertial gravity wave activities in the troposphere and lower stratosphere (TLS) from the radiosonde observation have been reported before, but these works were concentrated on either equatorial or polar regions. In this paper, background atmosphere and gravity wave activities in the TLS over Wuhan (30° N, 114° E) (a medium latitudinal region) were statistically studied by using the data from radiosonde observations on a twice daily basis at 08:00 and 20:00 LT in the period between 2000 and 2002. The monthly-averaged temperature and horizontal winds exhibit the essential dynamic and thermal structures of the background atmosphere. For avoiding the extreme values of background winds and temperature in the height range of 11-18km, we studied gravity waves, respectively, in two separate height regions, one is from ground surface to 10km (lower part), and the other is within 18-25km (upper part). In total, 791 and 1165 quasi-monochromatic inertial gravity waves were extracted from our data set for the lower and upper parts, respectively. The gravity wave parameters (intrinsic frequencies, amplitudes, wavelengths, intrinsic phase velocities and wave energies) are calculated and statistically studied. The statistical results revealed that in the lower part, there were 49.4% of gravity waves propagating upward, and the percentage was 76.4% in the upper part. Moreover, the average wave amplitudes and energies are less than those at the lower latitudinal regions, which indicates that the gravity wave parameters have a latitudinal dependence. The correlated temporal evolution of the monthly-averaged wave energies in the lower and upper parts and a subsequent quantitative analysis strongly suggested that at the observation site, dynamical instability (strong wind shear) induced by the tropospheric jet is the main excitation source of inertial gravity waves in the TLS.


Geophysics ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 84 (1) ◽  
pp. R1-R10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhendong Zhang ◽  
Tariq Alkhalifah ◽  
Zedong Wu ◽  
Yike Liu ◽  
Bin He ◽  
...  

Full-waveform inversion (FWI) is an attractive technique due to its ability to build high-resolution velocity models. Conventional amplitude-matching FWI approaches remain challenging because the simplified computational physics used does not fully represent all wave phenomena in the earth. Because the earth is attenuating, a sample-by-sample fitting of the amplitude may not be feasible in practice. We have developed a normalized nonzero-lag crosscorrelataion-based elastic FWI algorithm to maximize the similarity of the calculated and observed data. We use the first-order elastic-wave equation to simulate the propagation of seismic waves in the earth. Our proposed objective function emphasizes the matching of the phases of the events in the calculated and observed data, and thus, it is more immune to inaccuracies in the initial model and the difference between the true and modeled physics. The normalization term can compensate the energy loss in the far offsets because of geometric spreading and avoid a bias in estimation toward extreme values in the observed data. We develop a polynomial-type weighting function and evaluate an approach to determine the optimal time lag. We use a synthetic elastic Marmousi model and the BigSky field data set to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method. To suppress the short-wavelength artifacts in the estimated S-wave velocity and noise in the field data, we apply a Laplacian regularization and a total variation constraint on the synthetic and field data examples, respectively.


1994 ◽  
Vol 84 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Boatwright

Abstract The vertical components of the S wave trains recorded on the Eastern Canadian Telemetered Network (ECTN) from 1980 through 1990 have been spectrally analyzed for source, site, and propagation characteristics. The data set comprises some 1033 recordings of 97 earthquakes whose magnitudes range from M ≈ 3 to 6. The epicentral distances range from 15 to 1000 km, with most of the data set recorded at distances from 200 to 800 km. The recorded S wave trains contain the phases S, SmS, Sn, and Lg and are sampled using windows that increase with distance; the acceleration spectra were analyzed from 1.0 to 10 Hz. To separate the source, site, and propagation characteristics, an inversion for the earthquake corner frequencies, low-frequency levels, and average attenuation parameters is alternated with a regression of residuals onto the set of stations and a grid of 14 distances ranging from 25 to 1000 km. The iteration between these two parts of the inversion converges in about 60 steps. The average attenuation parameters obtained from the inversion were Q = 1997 ± 10 and γ = 0.998 ± 0.003. The most pronounced variation from this average attenuation is a marked deamplification of more than a factor of 2 at 63 km and 2 Hz, which shallows with increasing frequency and increasing distance out to 200 km. The site-response spectra obtained for the ECTN stations are generally flat. The source spectral shape assumed in this inversion provides an adequate spectral model for the smaller events (Mo < 3 × 1021 dyne-cm) in the data set, whose Brune stress drops range from 5 to 150 bars. For the five events in the data set with Mo ≧ 1023 dyne-cm, however, the source spectra obtained by regressing the residuals suggest that an ω2 spectrum is an inadequate model for the spectral shape. In particular, the corner frequencies for most of these large events appear to be split, so that the spectra exhibit an intermediate behavior (where |ü(ω)| is roughly proportional to ω).


2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-6
Author(s):  
M. Pihut ◽  
M. Górnicki ◽  
M. Orczykowska ◽  
E. Zarzecka ◽  
W. Ryniewicz ◽  
...  

In recent years, the number of patients applying for prosthetic treatment due to temporomandibular joint disorders (TMD) has been increasing. The main methods for treating disorders are the use of occlusal splints and physiotherapeutic rehabilitation as supportive treatment. Radio waves are electromagnetic waves with radiation frequency between 3 Hz and 3 THz, used for physiotherapeutic treatment of skeletal muscle relaxation in the range of 3 to 6 MHz. The rehabilitation effect of these waves is based on diathermy by means of high-voltage quick alternating current. Aim. The aim of the study was to evaluate the influence of radiofrequency waves on the pain of the masticatory muscles in the course of TMD and the usefulness of these procedures in the supporting treatment of these disorders. Materials and Methods. Patients aged 19 to 45 years, of both sexes, reported to the Consulting Room of TMD at the Institute of Dentistry in Krakow to undertake prosthetic treatment of TMD (I a—according to RDC/TMD). Study group (SG) consists of 20 patients who had 10 supportive treatments with radiofrequency currents. In the case of application of radiation to the muscle area, the energy was 20 J to the area of the masticatory muscles, the frequency was 3 MHz, bipolar technique, the duration of the procedure was 10 minutes, and the coupling substance was a gel for ultrasound examinations. The control group (CG) consisted of 20 patients who had 10 supportive treatments with sonophoresis procedures. For the area of masticatory muscles, 0.9 W/cm2 treatments were applied, the duty factor was 80%, the treatment time was 10 minutes, and the medical substance was 25% Voltaren gel. Results. Analysis of the results of the first clinical examinations (axis I) conducted in both groups shows a homogeneous clinical material and similar results. The second clinical examination revealed improved clinical parameters, but it showed a greater improvement in the SG. In the SG, the mean level of VAS was 6.25, and the extreme values were 5.9–0.14, the median was 2.15, and the standard deviation was 1.54. In the CG, the average value of VAS was 6.20 (peak of 5.2–0.7), the median was 2.4, and the standard deviation was 1.87. Summary. The search for new methods of supportive treatment of TMD is an important research direction due to the complex etiology of this disease and the lack of an explicit treatment algorithm. Conclusion. The results of our own research clearly indicate that the use of the radiofrequency waves brings pain relief and improvement of clinical parameters to a greater extent than in sonophoresis. It can be a very important new method in supportive treatment of TMD. Research needs to be continued.


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