The probability of very large earthquakes in Sumatra

1995 ◽  
Vol 85 (4) ◽  
pp. 1226-1231 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jichun Sun ◽  
Tso-Chien Pan
Keyword(s):  
Preliminary Investigation ◽  
Maximum Entropy Principle ◽  
Large Earthquake ◽  
Recurrence Interval ◽  
Base System ◽  
Maximum Magnitude ◽  
Information Center ◽  
Entropy Principle ◽  
Large Earthquakes ◽  
National Earthquake Information Center

Abstract This article presents the results of a preliminary investigation into the risk of very large earthquakes in Sumatra. Data for the study were taken from the Earthquake Data Base System of the National Earthquake Information Center, U.S. Geological Survey. In determining the recurrence interval of large earthquakes, the method of Dong et al. (1984) based on the maximum entropy principle was used. If the maximum magnitude of possible earthquakes in Sumatra is assumed to be 8.75, 9.0, or unlimited, the recurrence interval of a magnitude 8.5 earthquake is found to be 430, 283, or 204 yr, respectively. For the three cases, the magnitude of an earthquake with a 10% probability of exceedance in 50 yr is determined to be 8.52, 8.64, and 8.85, respectively, on the assumption of Poisson's distribution for earthquake occurrence. The results imply that the risk of a very large earthquake is high in Sumatra, and its consequences on the distant metropolitan areas on the Malay Peninsula should be investigated in further research.

MAXIMUM ENTROPY AND DISCRETE TIME SOFTWARE RELIABILITY GROWTH MODELS

2010 ◽  
Vol 17 (06) ◽  
pp. 587-601
Author(s):  
PANLOP ZEEPHONGSEKUL ◽  
SHIGERU YAMADA
Keyword(s):  
Maximum Entropy ◽  
Discrete Time ◽  
Software Reliability ◽  
Growth Models ◽  
Preliminary Investigation ◽  
Maximum Entropy Principle ◽  
Reliability Growth ◽  
Entropy Principle ◽  
Software Reliability Growth ◽  
Interpolation Polynomials

This paper provides a preliminary investigation into the application of the Maximum Entropy Principle (MEP), introduced by Jaynes in 1957, in modeling discrete time Software Reliability Growth Model (SRGM). On their own, each of these two topics are interesting with extensive applications, and here we will show how they can be combined to provide yet another application of the MEP among a huge array of proven successful applications. A brief discussion of MEP and SRGM will be given and a hitherto unnoticed relationship between MEP distribution and the Lagrange interpolation polynomials highlighted. We then show how MEP can be used to obtain some important distributions arising from discrete time SRGM. Finally, a simple example is given to illustrate the theory.

Identification of the Seismogenic Fault of the 1654 M 8.0 Tianshui Earthquake, Northeastern Tibetan Plateau

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peng Chen ◽  
Wei Shi ◽  
Jianmin Hu ◽  
Bing Yan ◽  
Haifeng Lu
Keyword(s):  
Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Large Earthquake ◽  
Recurrence Interval ◽  
Seismogenic Fault ◽  
The Past ◽  
Northeastern Tibetan Plateau ◽  
New Evidence ◽  
Historic Earthquakes ◽  
Large Earthquakes ◽  
Morphogenic Earthquake

Abstract The 1654 M 8.0 Tianshui earthquake occurred in the triangle area bounded by the West Qinling fault (WQLF) and Lixian–Luojiabao fault (LLF) in the northeastern Tibetan plateau. Previous studies reported that the LLF is the source for this earthquake based on the historical records and the Holocene fault activities. However, topographic analyses, outcrop observations, trench excavations associated with the WQLF, together with the radiocarbon dating results reveal that (1) the most recent surface-rupturing earthquake (E1) occurred in the past 470 yr, which can only correspond to the 1654 Tianshui earthquake if the historic earthquakes record is complete. This result means that the seismogenic fault, which is responsible for the 1654 Tianshui earthquake is the WQLF, rather than the LLF as previously reported; (2) the penultimate morphogenic earthquake (E2) took place in the period of 2693–760 yr Cal B.P.; (3) the third recent large earthquake (E3) occurred in the period of 10,229–6032 yr Cal B.P. with a higher probability in this range of 9005–8596 yr Cal B.P.; and (4) in consideration of the double time span of event E3 when compared with event E2 and E1, there is a possibility that another morphogenic earthquake took place in the period of 8596–6032 yr Cal B.P., and then the fourth surface-rupturing event (E4) occurred in the period of 9005–8596 yr Cal B.P. Therefore, at least three or four Holocene slipping events have occurred upon the WQLF in the past ∼9000  yr, suggesting an average recurrence interval of large earthquakes of 2250–3000 yr. The new evidence associated with the source of the 1654 M 8.0 Tianshui earthquake and the recurrence interval of large earthquakes on the WQLF will throw light on the reassessment of seismic potential in this area.

scholarly journals Estimation of Recurrence Interval of Large Earthquakes on the Central Longmen Shan Fault Zone Based on Seismic Moment Accumulation/Release Model

2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 ◽  
pp. 1-8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Junjie Ren ◽  
Shimin Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Fault Zone ◽  
Seismic Moment ◽  
Large Earthquake ◽  
Recurrence Interval ◽  
Seismogenic Zone ◽  
2008 Wenchuan Earthquake ◽  
Longmen Shan Fault ◽  
Release Model ◽  
Large Earthquakes

Recurrence interval of large earthquake on an active fault zone is an important parameter in assessing seismic hazard. The 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (Mw 7.9) occurred on the central Longmen Shan fault zone and ruptured the Yingxiu-Beichuan fault (YBF) and the Guanxian-Jiangyou fault (GJF). However, there is a considerable discrepancy among recurrence intervals of large earthquake in preseismic and postseismic estimates based on slip rate and paleoseismologic results. Post-seismic trenches showed that the central Longmen Shan fault zone probably undertakes an event similar to the 2008 quake, suggesting a characteristic earthquake model. In this paper, we use the published seismogenic model of the 2008 earthquake based on Global Positioning System (GPS) and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) data and construct a characteristic seismic moment accumulation/release model to estimate recurrence interval of large earthquakes on the central Longmen Shan fault zone. Our results show that the seismogenic zone accommodates a moment rate of (2.7 ± 0.3) × 1017 N m/yr, and a recurrence interval of 3900 ± 400 yrs is necessary for accumulation of strain energy equivalent to the 2008 earthquake. This study provides a preferred interval estimation of large earthquakes for seismic hazard analysis in the Longmen Shan region.

National Earthquake Information Center waveform catalog, January 1986

1986 ◽  
Author(s):  
Madeleine D. Zirbes ◽  
Janna M. Lishner ◽  
Beverly J. Moon
Keyword(s):  
Information Center ◽  
National Earthquake Information Center

National Earthquake Information Center Waveform Catalog, June 1985

1985 ◽  
Author(s):  
Madeleine D. Zirbes ◽  
Janna M. Lishner ◽  
Beverly J. Moon
Keyword(s):  
Information Center ◽  
National Earthquake Information Center

National Earthquake Information Center Waveform catalog, May 1985

1985 ◽  
Author(s):  
Madeleine D. Zirbes ◽  
Janna M. Lishner ◽  
Beverly J. Moon
Keyword(s):  
Information Center ◽  
National Earthquake Information Center

scholarly journals Stress relaxation arrested the mainshock rupture of the 2016 Central Tottori earthquake

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yoshihisa Iio ◽  
Satoshi Matsumoto ◽  
Yusuke Yamashita ◽  
Shin’ichi Sakai ◽  
Kazuhide Tomisaka ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Stress Relaxation ◽  
Focal Mechanism ◽  
Large Earthquake ◽  
Static Stress ◽  
Focal Mechanism Solutions ◽  
Large Earthquakes

AbstractAfter a large earthquake, many small earthquakes, called aftershocks, ensue. Additional large earthquakes typically do not occur, despite the fact that the large static stress near the edges of the fault is expected to trigger further large earthquakes at these locations. Here we analyse ~10,000 highly accurate focal mechanism solutions of aftershocks of the 2016 Mw 6.2 Central Tottori earthquake in Japan. We determine the location of the horizontal edges of the mainshock fault relative to the aftershock hypocentres, with an accuracy of approximately 200 m. We find that aftershocks rarely occur near the horizontal edges and extensions of the fault. We propose that the mainshock rupture was arrested within areas characterised by substantial stress relaxation prior to the main earthquake. This stress relaxation along fault edges could explain why mainshocks are rarely followed by further large earthquakes.

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