scholarly journals Influence of the Site-Specific Component of Kappa on the Magnitude-Dependency of Within-Event Aleatory Variabilities in Ground-Motion Models

2020 ◽  
Vol 92 (1) ◽  
pp. 238-245
Author(s):  
Christopher Brooks ◽  
John Douglas
Keyword(s):  
Ground Motion ◽  
Stress Drop ◽  
Ground Motions ◽  
Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Specific Component ◽  
Site Specific ◽  
Motion Models ◽  
Earthquake Ground Motions ◽  
Aleatory Variability

Abstract The aleatory-variability component (standard deviation) of a ground motion has a large influence on results of a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. kappa, a measure of high-frequency attenuation, has site- and record-specific effects that have been suggested as reasons for observing heteroscedastic aleatory variability within earthquake ground motions. Specifically, kappa has been proposed as a reason why ground motions from small earthquakes are more variable than those from large earthquakes, which is modeled by magnitude-dependent within-event standard deviations in ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs). In this study, we use ground motions simulated using the stochastic method to examine the influence of the site-specific component of kappa on aleatory variability of earthquake ground motions and examine the hypothesis that this could be a cause of the observed heteroscedasticity in this variability. We consider simulations with both fixed and continuous stress drop distributions and the site-specific component of kappa to demonstrate that variation in the stress drop parameter contributes minimally to magnitude-dependency, unlike the site-specific component of kappa, which causes significant magnitude-dependency. Variation in the site-specific component of kappa is, therefore, proposed to be at least partially responsible for the magnitude-dependency captured in the aleatory-variability components of some recent GMPEs. It is found, however, that the expected impact of the site-specific component of kappa on aleatory variability is much greater than modeled in these GMPEs, which suggests that there could be a mitigating effect that is not captured within the simulations (e.g., correlated inputs to the simulations).

From Ergodic to Region- and Site-Specific Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment: Method Development and Application at European and Middle Eastern Sites

2017 ◽  
Vol 33 (4) ◽  
pp. 1433-1453 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sreeram Reddy Kotha ◽  
Dino Bindi ◽  
Fabrice Cotton
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Method Development ◽  
Site Response ◽  
Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard ◽  
Site Specific ◽  
Aleatory Variability

The increasing numbers of recordings at individual sites allows quantification of empirical linear site-response adjustment factors ( δS2 S s) from the ground motion prediction equation (GMPE) residuals. The δS2 S s are then used to linearly scale the ergodic GMPE predictions to obtain site-specific ground motion predictions in a partially non-ergodic Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA). To address key statistical and conceptual issues in the current practice, we introduce a novel empirical region- and site-specific PSHA methodology wherein, (1) site-to-site variability ( φ S2 S) is first estimated as a random-variance in a mixed-effects GMPE regression, (2) δS2 S s at new sites with strong motion are estimated using the a priori φ S2 S, and (3) the GMPE site-specific single-site aleatory variability σ ss,s is replaced with a generic site-corrected aleatory variability σ0. Comparison of region- and site-specific hazard curves from our method against the traditional ergodic estimates at 225 sites in Europe and Middle East shows an approximate 50% difference in predicted ground motions over a range of hazard levels—a strong motivation to increase seismological monitoring of critical facilities and enrich regional ground motion data sets.

An NGA Model for the Average Horizontal Component of Peak Ground Motion and Response Spectra

2008 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 173-215 ◽  
Author(s):  
BrianS-J. Chiou ◽  
Robert R. Youngs
Keyword(s):  
Ground Motion ◽  
Ground Motions ◽  
Hanging Wall ◽  
Response Spectra ◽  
Horizontal Component ◽  
Smooth Functions ◽  
Soil Response ◽  
New Model ◽  
Crustal Earthquakes ◽  
Aleatory Variability

We present a model for estimating horizontal ground motion amplitudes caused by shallow crustal earthquakes occurring in active tectonic environments. The model provides predictive relationships for the orientation-independent average horizontal component of ground motions. Relationships are provided for peak acceleration, peak velocity, and 5-percent damped pseudo-spectral acceleration for spectral periods of 0.01 to 10 seconds. The model represents an update of the relationships developed by Sadigh et. al. (1997) and incorporates improved magnitude and distance scaling forms as well as hanging-wall effects. Site effects are represented by smooth functions of average shear wave velocity of the upper 30 m ( VS30) and sediment depth. The new model predicts median ground motion that is similar to Sadigh et. al. (1997) at short spectral period, but lower ground motions at longer periods. The new model produces slightly lower ground motions in the distance range of 10 to 50 km and larger ground motions at larger distances. The aleatory variability in ground motion amplitude was found to depend upon earthquake magnitude and on the degree of nonlinear soil response, For large magnitude earthquakes, the aleatory variability is larger than found by Sadigh et. al. (1997).

Directivity in NGA Earthquake Ground Motions: Analysis Using Isochrone Theory

2008 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 279-298 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul Spudich ◽  
Brian S. J. Chiou
Keyword(s):  
Ground Motion ◽  
Ground Motions ◽  
Strike Slip ◽  
Motion Prediction ◽  
Spectral Acceleration ◽  
Correction Factors ◽  
Ground Motion Prediction ◽  
Earthquake Ground Motions

We present correction factors that may be applied to the ground motion prediction relations of Abrahamson and Silva, Boore and Atkinson, Campbell and Bozorgnia, and Chiou and Youngs (all in this volume) to model the azimuthally varying distribution of the GMRotI50 component of ground motion (commonly called “directivity”) around earthquakes. Our correction factors may be used for planar or nonplanar faults having any dip or slip rake (faulting mechanism). Our correction factors predict directivity-induced variations of spectral acceleration that are roughly half of the strike-slip variations predicted by Somerville et. al. (1997), and use of our factors reduces record-to-record sigma by about 2–20% at 5 sec or greater period.

A Suite of Alternative Ground-Motion Models (GMMs) for Israel

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Soumya Kanti Maiti ◽  
Gony Yagoda-Biran ◽  
Ronnie Kamai
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Empirical Data ◽  
Epistemic Uncertainty ◽  
Ground Motions ◽  
Plate Boundary ◽  
Strong Motion ◽  
Engineering Applications ◽  
Motion Models ◽  
Ground Motion Models

ABSTRACT Models for estimating earthquake ground motions are a key component in seismic hazard analysis. In data-rich regions, these models are mostly empirical, relying on the ever-increasing ground-motion databases. However, in areas in which strong-motion data are scarce, other approaches for ground-motion estimates are sought, including, but not limited to, the use of simulations to replace empirical data. In Israel, despite a clear seismic hazard posed by the active plate boundary on its eastern border, the instrumental record is sparse and poor, leading to the use of global models for hazard estimation in the building code and all other engineering applications. In this study, we develop a suite of alternative ground-motion models for Israel, based on an empirical database from Israel as well as on four data-calibrated synthetic databases. Two host models are used to constrain model behavior, such that the epistemic uncertainty is captured and characterized. Despite the lack of empirical data at large magnitudes and short distances, constraints based on the host models or on the physical grounds provided by simulations ensure these models are appropriate for engineering applications. The models presented herein are cast in terms of the Fourier amplitude spectra, which is a linear, physical representation of ground motions. The models are suitable for shallow crustal earthquakes; they include an estimate of the median and the aleatory variability, and are applicable in the magnitude range of 3–8 and distance range of 1–300 km.

Testing non-linear amplification factors used in ground motion models

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karina Loviknes ◽  
Danijel Schorlemmer ◽  
Fabrice Cotton ◽  
Sreeram Reddy Kotha
Keyword(s):  
Ground Motion ◽  
Site Effects ◽  
Ground Motions ◽  
Site Amplification ◽  
Building Codes ◽  
Linear Amplification ◽  
Motion Models ◽  
Earthquake Predictability ◽  
Non Linear ◽  
Ground Motion Models

<p>Non-linear site effects are mainly expected for strong ground motions and sites with soft soils and more recent ground-motion models (GMM) have started to include such effects. Observations in this range are, however, sparse, and most non-linear site amplification models are therefore partly or fully based on numerical simulations. We develop a framework for testing of non-linear site amplification models using data from the comprehensive Kiban-Kyoshin network in Japan. The test is reproducible, following the vision of the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP), and takes advantage of new large datasets to evaluate <span>whether or not</span> non-linear site effects predicted by site-amplification models are supported by empirical data. The site amplification models are tested using residuals between the observations and predictions from a GMM based only on magnitude and distance. When the GMM is derived without any site term, the site-specific variability extracted from the residuals is expected to capture the site response of a site. The non-linear site amplification models are tested against a linear amplification model on individual well-record<span>ing</span> stations. Finally, the result is compared to building codes where non-linearity is included. The test shows that for most of the sites selected as having sufficient records, the non-linear site-amplification models do not score better than the linear amplification model. This suggests that including non-linear site amplification in GMMs and building codes may not yet be justified, at least not in the range of ground motions considered in the test (peak ground acceleration < 0.2 g).</p>

scholarly journals Seismic hazard evaluation

2000 ◽  
Vol 33 (3) ◽  
pp. 371-386 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul Somerville
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Ground Motions ◽  
Strong Motion ◽  
Earthquake Source ◽  
Hazard Evaluation ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Motion Models ◽  
The Past ◽  
Ground Motion Models

This paper reviews concepts and trends in seismic hazard characterization that have emerged in the past decade, and identifies trends and concepts that are anticipated during the coming decade. New methods have been developed for characterizing potential earthquake sources that use geological and geodetic data in conjunction with historical seismicity data. Scaling relationships among earthquake source parameters have been developed to provide a more detailed representation of the earthquake source for ground motion prediction. Improved empirical ground motion models have been derived from a strong motion data set that has grown markedly over the past decade. However, these empirical models have a large degree of uncertainty because the magnitude - distance - soil category parameterization of these models often oversimplifies reality. This reflects the fact that other conditions that are known to have an important influence on strong ground motions, such as near- fault rupture directivity effects, crustal waveguide effects, and basin response effects, are not treated as parameters of these simple models. Numerical ground motion models based on seismological theory that include these additional effects have been developed and extensively validated against recorded ground motions, and used to estimate the ground motions of past earthquakes and predict the ground motions of future scenario earthquakes. The probabilistic approach to characterizing the ground motion that a given site will experience in the future is very compatible with current trends in earthquake engineering and the development of building codes. Performance based design requires a more comprehensive representation of ground motions than has conventionally been used. Ground motions estimates are needed at multiple annual probability levels, and may need to be specified not only by response spectra but also by suites of strong motion time histories for input into time-domain non-linear analyses of structures.

Ground-Motion Prediction Model Based on Neural Networks to Extract Site Properties from Observational Records

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tomohisa Okazaki ◽  
Nobuyuki Morikawa ◽  
Asako Iwaki ◽  
Hiroyuki Fujiwara ◽  
Tomoharu Iwata ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ground Motion ◽  
Ground Acceleration ◽  
Site Specific ◽  
Motion Data ◽  
Motion Models ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Single Station ◽  
Input Variables ◽  
Ground Condition ◽  
Ground Motion Models

ABSTRACT Choosing the method for inputting site conditions is critical in reducing the uncertainty of empirical ground-motion models (GMMs). We apply a neural network (NN) to construct a GMM of peak ground acceleration that extracts site properties from ground-motion data instead of referring to ground condition variables given for each site. A key structure of the model is one-hot representations of the site ID, that is, specifying the collection site of each ground-motion record by preparing input variables corresponding to all observation sites. This representation makes the best use of the flexibility of NN to obtain site-specific properties while avoiding overfitting at sites where a small number of strong motions have been recorded. The proposed model exhibits accurate and robust estimations among several compared models in different aspects, including data-poor sites and strong motions from large earthquakes. This model is expected to derive a single-station sigma that evaluates the residual uncertainty under the specification of estimation sites. The proposed NN structure of one-hot representations would serve as a standard ingredient for constructing site-specific GMMs in general regions.

Probabilistic seismic hazard maps for California do not perform better relative to historical shaking data when site-specific VS30 is considered

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Molly Gallahue ◽  
Leah Salditch ◽  
Madeleine Lucas ◽  
James Neely ◽  
Susan Hough ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Tall Buildings ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard ◽  
Hazard Maps ◽  
Site Specific ◽  
Seismic Hazard Maps ◽  
Intensity Mapping ◽  
Aleatory Variability

<div> <p>Probabilistic seismic hazard assessments forecast levels of earthquake shaking that should be exceeded with only a certain probability over a given period of time are important for earthquake hazard mitigation. These rely on assumptions about when and where earthquakes will occur, their size, and the resulting shaking as a function of distance as described by ground-motion models (GMMs) that cover broad geologic regions. Seismic hazard maps are used to develop building codes.</p> </div><div> <p>To explore the robustness of maps’ shaking forecasts, we consider how maps hindcast past shaking. We have compiled the California Historical Intensity Mapping Project (CHIMP) dataset of the maximum observed seismic intensity of shaking from the largest Californian earthquakes over the past 162 years. Previous comparisons between the maps for a constant V<sub>S30</sub> (shear-wave velcoity in the top 30 m of soil) of 760 m/s and CHIMP based on several metrics suggested that current maps overpredict shaking.</p> <p>The differences between the V<sub>S30</sub> at the CHIMP sites and the reference value of 760 m/s could amplify or deamplify the ground motions relative to the mapped values. We evaluate whether the V<sub>S30 </sub>at the CHIMP sites could cause a possible bias in the models. By comparison with the intensity data in CHIMP, we find that using site-specific V<sub>S30</sub> does not improve map performance, because the site corrections cause only minor differences from the original 2018 USGS hazard maps at the short periods (high frequencies) relevant to peak ground acceleration and hence MMI. The minimal differences reflect the fact that the nonlinear deamplification due to increased soil damping largely offsets the linear amplification due to low V<sub>S30</sub>. The net effects will be larger for longer periods relevant to tall buildings, where net amplification occurs. </p> <div> <p>Possible reasons for this discrepancy include limitations of the dataset, a bias in the hazard models, an over-estimation of the aleatory variability of the ground motion or that seismicity throughout the historical period has been lower than the long-term average, perhaps by chance due to the variability of earthquake recurrence. Resolving this discrepancy, which is also observed in Italy and Japan, could improve the performance of seismic hazard maps and thus earthquake safety for California and, by extension, worldwide. We also explore whether new nonergodic GMMs, with reduced aleatory variability, perform better than presently used ergodic GMMs compared to historical data.</p> </div> </div>

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