A New Concept of Intensity Data Area and Its Effect on the Parameter Determination of Historical Earthquakes

2020 ◽  
Vol 91 (5) ◽  
pp. 2685-2694 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jian Wang ◽  
Guoliang Lin
Keyword(s):  
Ming Dynasty ◽  
Population Distribution ◽  
Historical Earthquakes ◽  
Parameter Determination ◽  
Intensity Data ◽  
Historical Earthquake ◽  
Earthquake Parameters ◽  
Case Examples ◽  
The Government ◽  
High Tier

Abstract In ancient China, the government annals provided abundant historical earthquake records, which lasted more than 2000 yr. In some cases, the earthquake damage descriptions from the high-tier government annals are so concise that the specific place names were omitted, even the names of towns where the damage might have actually occurred. The intensity data point (IDP) was assigned to the capital town of the high-tier government, which might lead to large uncertainties in the historical earthquake parameters. A new concept of intensity data area (IDA) is proposed specifically to deal with this issue. An approach on how to convert the IDA to an IDP, based on nonseismological information, is described. In this process, we emphasize the effectiveness of field trips to investigate local features, such as natural environment, population distribution, historical administration zoning, and so forth. As case examples, two historical earthquakes in the Ming Dynasty are analyzed. The documentations of both earthquakes have a common problem, in that some damage was described with the name of the highest-tier local government (Fu); this led to the dispute about the parameter of historical earthquakes. With the proposed method, the IDA for Fu is successfully converted to an IDP at the suitable site. This is the key step to solve the dispute and reduce the parameter uncertainty. Our results have revealed that the parameters of both case earthquakes in the latest edition of the catalog (“The Catalog of Chinese Historical Strong Earthquakes (2300 B.C.–A.D. 1911)”) were wrong (Min et al., 1995). It is noteworthy that the latest edition of the catalog is currently in common use. To avoid the misuse of the catalog, it is better that the parameters in the catalog be restudied, especially for those labeled with large uncertainties.

Estimation of the Parameters of Historical Earthquakes with a New Attenuation Equation in Yunnan Province, China

2020 ◽  
Vol 91 (5) ◽  
pp. 2651-2661 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guoliang Lin ◽  
Jian Wang
Keyword(s):  
Yunnan Province ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Source Parameters ◽  
Historical Earthquakes ◽  
Intensity Data ◽  
Earthquake Parameters ◽  
Intensity Attenuation ◽  
Earthquake Source Parameters ◽  
Data Points ◽  
Optimal Intensity

Abstract Yunnan Province is in southwest China, where the seismicity has been active since ancient times. Generally, the uncertainty of historical earthquake parameters is larger. To amend the parameters of historical earthquakes, we have developed a new intensity attenuation equation. From 2000 to 2018, there were 25 instrumentally recorded earthquakes with Ms 5.0–6.6 in Yunnan. The parameters of those earthquake events, including their epicentral locations and magnitudes, are determined with high accuracy. Meanwhile, total intensity values of 1345 intensity data points have been carefully assessed by survey. With both accurate earthquake parameters and valuable intensity data, a new intensity attenuation equation has been established. The result shows the optimal intensity magnitude MI can be calculated from the mean of Mi=(I−2.1113+0.0412Δi+1.3717lgΔi)/1.1641, in which Δi is the distance between the epicenter and the surveyed seismic point. By adapting the method proposed by Bakun and Wentworth (1997) for determining earthquake source parameters directly from historical intensity data, we have tested retrospectively the new attenuation on the 25 instrumentally recorded earthquakes. Then this attenuation was applied to deal with the parameters of two historical earthquakes, the 26 February 1713 Xundian earthquake and the 11 May 1909 Huaning earthquakes. Our results reduced the uncertainty of previously estimated parameters, which were large. The amended parameters will be valuable for seismic hazard analysis and earthquake disaster reduction.

Deceptive Ambiguity by Police and Prosecutors

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roger W. Shuy
Keyword(s):  
Speech Acts ◽  
Relative Frequency ◽  
The Other ◽  
Cooperative Principle ◽  
Case Examples ◽  
Police Interviews ◽  
Performance Errors ◽  
Criminal Suspects ◽  
The Government ◽  
Speech Events

Much is written about how criminal suspects, defendants, and undercover targets use ambiguous language in their interactions with police, prosecutors, and undercover agents. This book examines the other side of the coin, describing fifteen criminal investigations demonstrating how police, prosecutors, undercover agents, and complainants use deceptive ambiguity with their subjects, which leads to misrepresentations of the speech events, schemas, agendas, speech acts, lexicon, and grammar. These misrepresentations affect the perceptions of judges and juries about the subjects’ motives, predispositions, intentions, and voluntariness. Deception is commonly considered intentional while ambiguity is often excused as unintentional performance errors. Although perhaps overreliance on Grice’s maxim of sincerity leads some to believe this, interactions of suspects, defendants, and targets with representatives of law are adversarial, non-cooperative events that enable participants to ignore or violate the cooperative principle. One effective way the government does this is to use ambiguity deceptively. Later listeners to the recordings of such conversations may not recognize this ambiguity and react in ways that the subjects may not have intended. Deceptive ambiguity is clearly intentional in undercover operations and the case examples illustrate that the practice also is alive and well in police interviews and prosecutorial questioning. The book concludes with a summary of how the deceptive ambiguity used by representatives of the government affected the perception of the subjects’ predisposition, intentionality and voluntariness, followed by a comparison of the relative frequency of deceptive ambiguity used by the government in its representations of speech events, schemas, agendas, speech acts, lexicon, and grammar.

scholarly journals A large unknown historical earthquake in the Abruzzi region (Central Italy): combination of geological and historical data

1995 ◽  
Vol 38 (5-6) ◽  
Author(s):  
G. D'Addezio ◽  
F. R. Cinti ◽  
D. Pantosti
Keyword(s):  
Historical Data ◽  
Central Italy ◽  
Large Earthquake ◽  
Historical Earthquakes ◽  
Historical Record ◽  
Historical Earthquake ◽  
Recent Event ◽  
Complete Knowledge ◽  
Historical Investigation

The combination of paleoseismological and historical investigation can be used to obtain a complete knowledge of past earthquakes. In Italy the 1000 year-long record of historical earthquakes provides an opportunity to compare data from the catalogue with results from paleoseismologic investigations. Trenching results along the Ovindoli-Pezza Fault (OPF). in the Abruzzi region. showed two surface faulting events. The most recent of these events occurred after 1019 A.D. and should be reported in the Catalogue of Italian Seismicity. Nevertheless, the earthquake appears to be missed or not well located in the Catalogue. In order to define in which century a large earthquake on the OPF should have clearly left a sign in the historical record, we carried out historical investigations back to the XI century. The studies were mainly focu5ed on disclosing possible <<negative>> e vidence for the occurrence of the most recent event along the OPF. No clear records related to this event were found but on the basis of the information we obtained the occurrence of this earthquake can be constrained between 1019 A.D. and the XV century. possibly between 1019 A.D. and XIII century.

scholarly journals Empirical Relationship for Assessing the Near-Field Horizontal Coseismic Displacement Using GPS Seismology Data

2021 ◽  
Vol 60 (1) ◽  
pp. 31-50
Author(s):  
Ryad Darawcheh ◽  
Riad Al Ghazzi ◽  
Mohamad Khir Abdul-wahed
Keyword(s):  
Near Field ◽  
Empirical Relationship ◽  
Active Faults ◽  
Historical Earthquakes ◽  
Dead Sea ◽  
Fault System ◽  
Coseismic Displacement ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Earthquake Parameters ◽  
Gps Station

In this research, a data set of horizontal GPS coseismic displacement in the near-field has been assembled around the world in order to investigate a potential relationship between the displacement and the earthquake parameters. Regression analyses have been applied to the data of 120 interplate earthquakes having the magnitude (Mw 4.8-9.2). An empirical relationship for prediction near-field horizontal GPS coseismic displacement as a function of moment magnitude and the distance between hypocenter and near field GPS station has been established using the multi regression analysis. The obtained relationship allows assessing the coseismic displacements associated with some large historical earthquakes occurred along the Dead Sea fault system. Such a fair relationship could be useful for assessing the coseismic displacement at any point around the active faults.

scholarly journals Art. X.—An Account of the Paper Currency and Banking System of Fuhchowfoo

1852 ◽  
Vol 13 ◽  
pp. 179-189 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Parkes
Keyword(s):  
Ming Dynasty ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Bad Faith ◽  
Regular Paper ◽  
Paper Money ◽  
Paper Currency ◽  
Complete Failure ◽  
The Late Ming Dynasty ◽  
The Government

Among the various wonderful inventions, marking the astonishing advances which the Chinese had so early made towards civilization, is that of Paper-Money, which dates as far back as the year 119 before our era. The cause that led to its introduction was the low state of the finances of the Government, who, after various other experiments, issued at last regular paper assignats, which, from the ponderous nature of the rude coin then in use, and the security that the warranty of government afforded, soon obtained extensive circulation. The government who had thus introduced this new currency, made it an object of much legislation; and various were the schemes that were started and remoulded, in the hope of permanently establishing its use. But the numerous intestine wars, and the repeated subversion of dynasties that followed, tended seriously to detract from the credit of the government; and thus, owing to its bad faith, and the excessive issues, a complete failure of the system was the result, after a lapse of five centuries having been spent in unsuccessful attempts to establish it. Government paper-money seems to have disappeared in the early part of the late Ming dynasty; and the Manchus, on their accession, never attempted to revive its use. To Klaproth we are indebted for very elaborate researches on this interesting and oft-discussed subject.

Ch'ing Changing Images of the Overseas Chinese (1644–1912)

1981 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 261-285 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yen Ching-Hwang
Keyword(s):  
Southeast Asia ◽  
Ming Dynasty ◽  
North China ◽  
Han Chinese ◽  
Overseas Chinese ◽  
The West ◽  
Naval Power ◽  
Southeast Coast ◽  
The Government ◽  
Resistance Movement

The Manchus inherited from the Ming Dynasty the images of the overseas Chinese as well as the policy towards them. The tarnished images of the overseas Chinese as ‘deserters’, ‘criminals’, and ‘potential traitors’ of the Ming were taken over by the early Ch'ing rulers. These images were soon transformed into new images of ‘political criminals’, ‘conspirators’ and ‘rebels’, for in the first four decades after the Manchu conquest of North China in 1644, the overseas Chinese in Southeast Asia were directly involved in the resistance movement on the southeast coast of China. The leader of the movement, Cheng Ch'eng-kung (known in the West as Koxinga), seems to have enlisted the support of the overseas Chinese, particularly from Vietnam, Cambodia and Siam, for his resistance. It is claimed that Koxinga's naval power was partly drawn from Nanyang (Southeast Asia) shipping, and financed from the profits of the Nanyang trade. Of course those overseas Chinese who supported Koxinga made no apology for their involvement. They saw the Manchus as alien usurpers and as the oppressors of the Han Chinese, and the support for Koxinga's resistance movement was seen as an act of patriotism to save Han Chinese from the oppressive Manchu rule. The government countered the overseas Chinese involvement by introducing stringent laws against private overseas trade. In 1656 (13th year of the Emperor Shun-chih), a decree was proclaimed that‘….any traders who go overseas privately and trade or supply the rebels with provisions will be beheaded, and their goods confiscated.

scholarly journals Adjusted Dynamics of COVID-19 Pandemic Due to Herd Immunity in Bangladesh

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Enamul Hoque ◽  
Md. Shariful Islam ◽  
Susanta Kumar Das ◽  
Dipak Kumar Mitra ◽  
Mohammad Ruhul Amin
Keyword(s):  
Population Distribution ◽  
Unscented Kalman Filter ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Capital City ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Susceptible Population ◽  
Trade Off ◽  
The Government

Abstract Background Amid growing debate between scientists and policymakers on the trade-off between public safety and reviving economy during the COVID-19 pandemic, the government of Bangladesh decided to relax the countrywide lockdown restrictions from the beginning of June 2020. Instead, the Ministry of Public Affairs officials have declared some parts of the capital city and a few other districts as red zones or high-risk areas based on the number of people infected in the late June 2020. Nonetheless, the COVID-19 infection rate had been increasing in almost every other part of the country. Ironically, rather than ensuring rapid tests and isolation of COVID-19 patients, from the beginning of July 2020, the Directorate General of Health Services restrained the maximum number of tests per laboratory. Thus, the health experts have raised the question of whether the government is heading toward achieving herd immunity instead of containing the COVID-19 pandemic.Methods We propose an age-group clustering method to estimate the susceptible population and use the adjusted SIRD model with Unscented Kalman Filter to analyze the dynamics of COVID-19 transmission rate in Bangladesh.Results Our analysis on the susceptible population distribution suggests that the key propagation agent is the young adult due to their socio-economic activities. We demonstrate that the herd immunity threshold can be reduced to 31% than that of 60% by considering age group cluster analysis resulting maximum 53.0 million susceptible populations in the lower middle income country. However, the case fatality rate (CFR) analysis shows that the most vulnerable people belong to the older population (> 60 years) in Bangladesh following the global trend. With the data of Covid-19 cases till July 22,2020, the time-varying reproduction numbers are used to explain the nature of the pandemic.Conclusions Based on the estimations of active, severe, and critical cases, we discuss a set of policy recommendations to improve the current pandemic control methods in Bangladesh. Moreover, we suggest a fair trade-off between health versus the economy in order to avoid enormous death toll and to keep Bangladesh’s economy alive.

Promoting Electronic Commerce in the Defense Industry

2011 ◽  
pp. 85-101
Author(s):  
Charles Trappey ◽  
Amy Trappey ◽  
Thomas Gulledge ◽  
Rainer Sommer
Keyword(s):  
Electronic Commerce ◽  
Supply Chains ◽  
Department Of Defense ◽  
Defense Industry ◽  
Technical Support ◽  
Federal Mandates ◽  
Case Examples ◽  
On Line ◽  
The Government ◽  
The U.S

Beginning in 1993, when the U.S. Federal Government proposed the “framework of electronic commerce (EC),” the call went out for the wide-scale deployment of EC solutions in government. The Department of Defense immediately became the center of attention since it has the largest procurement budget of all. Initiatives were launched to move from a paper-driven procurement process to an electronic, on-line concept satisfying federal mandates. However, the defense industry consists of thousands of small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) that were far from ready to conduct business with the government electronically. In order to help the Department of Defense (DoD) and its suppliers to comply with the EC mandates, 17 Electronic Commerce Resource Centers (ECRCs) were established across the U.S. to transfer process improving and enabling EC technologies to small and medium sized businesses and government agencies. Each ECRC comprises business partners (and several university partners) that provide EC outreach, training and technical support to DoD supply chains. The goal of the nationwide network of centers is to facilitate the transition from paper-dependent supply chains to fully electronic-based procurement environments. In order for SMEs to do business with the U.S. government electronically, the mission of the ECRC must grow beyond training and outreach to hands-on implementation and intervention in SMEs. In this chapter, the key issues, approaches and challenges of bringing EC to defense supply chains are described. The chapter first discusses the complexity of defense supply chains and the efforts underway to make the procurement processes EC compliant. The related government laws and regulations are outlined to set the legal foundation for EC implementation. Then, the elaboration of the ECRC model provides a detailed view of the collaboration between industry, academia, and government to improve defense industry supply chains. Details of a local ECRC’s operations are provided to demonstrate its functions and accomplishments. Case examples of the center’s operations and technical support are provided to show how the technology is transferred to the SMEs. The chapter concludes with a description of future directions in EC promotion, education and support necessary for the defense industry to change and to do business electronically

Can Machine Learning help us in [re]assessing historical earthquakes?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
María del Puy Papí Isaba ◽  
Christa Hammerl ◽  
Maurizio Mattesini ◽  
Vicenta María Elisa Buforn Peiró
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
20Th Century ◽  
Historical Earthquakes ◽  
Earthquake Activity ◽  
Earthquake Catalog ◽  
Historical Sources ◽  
Hydro Power ◽  
Earthquake Parameters ◽  
Focal Parameters ◽  
First Time

&lt;p&gt;Tyrol is one of the provinces with the highest seismicity in Austria. Most of the stronger historical earthquakes occurred around Innsbruck and Hall in Tirol (1572, 1670, 1689).&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Within the framework of the project[1] &amp;#8220;Historical and recent earthquake activity in Tyrol - sources, data, seismological analysis&amp;#8221;, a study was carried out from 2014-2020, which mainly deals with historical earthquakes in Tyrol up to 1900 but also in detail with damaging earthquakes in Tyrol in the 20th century. The project&amp;#8217;s purpose was to create a new earthquake catalog for Tyrol, which for the first time also includes Macroseismic/Intensity Data Points (M/IDPs).&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;An essential aspect of this study is that the sources and literature references used for all Tyrolean earthquakes up to 1900 are largely documented. Furthermore, selected damaging earthquakes of the 20th century are reported in detail. Numerous Tyrolean archives, such as the Tyrolean Provincial Archives, and the City Archives of Hall in Tyrol, were searched for contemporary earthquake sources. Likewise, the seismic archive of the Austrian Seismological Service at ZAMG (Zentralanstalt f&amp;#252;r Meteorologie und Geodynamik) contains a wealth of valuable recent information, such as the questionnaires on earthquakes of the entire 20th century.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The very time-consuming research and documentation are followed by the conversion of the written information into earthquake parameters. Briefly outlined, this comprises the following working steps: Interpretation of the sources, assignment of geographical coordinates to the pieces of evidence, evaluation of the intensity according to the European Macroseismic Scale (EMS-98), (re)calculation of the focal parameters of all damaging earthquakes and numerous newly found earthquakes.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The latter is the content of this presentation, namely to (re-)evaluate the focal parameters for historical and recent earthquakes in Tyrol for the first time using the intensity prediction equations (IPE) with the Grid Search (GS) technique. GS has been widely used in many Machine Learning types of research when it comes to hyperparameter optimization, which in this study corresponds to the earthquake focal parameters.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;We used IDPs whose intensities were mostly assessed from contemporary historical sources, such as annals, chronicles, questionnaires, newspapers, etc.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;A total of 1750 M/IDPs for 35 damaging earthquakes from the Austrian Earthquake Catalogue (AEC2020) could be determined based on the historical sources. The focal parameters for these earthquakes were reevaluated by means of the IPE and GS.&amp;#160;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Likewise, 726 new M/IDPs from a total of 154 non-damaging earthquakes not yet included in the AEC2020 were determined. For 38 of them, it was possible to calculate new sets of focal parameters.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Problems encountered, accuracy, and error of the results will be introduced in the presentation.&amp;#160;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&amp;#160;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;span&gt;[1]The project was funded by TIWAG-Tiroler Wasserkraft AG, ASFINAG Alpenstra&amp;#223;e GmbH, Fachgruppe der Seilbahnen Tirol, Verbund Hydro Power GmbH, Amt der Tiroler Landesregierung - Abteilung Allgemeine Bauangelegenheiten, Landesgeologi, &amp;#214;BB Infrastruktur AG and ZAMG.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/div&gt;

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