A New State‐of‐the‐Art Platform for Probabilistic and Deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment

2019 ◽  
Vol 90 (6) ◽  
pp. 2262-2275 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gabriel Candia ◽  
Jorge Macedo ◽  
Miguel A. Jaimes ◽  
Carolina Magna‐Verdugo
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
State Of The Art ◽  
Ground Motions ◽  
Tectonic Setting ◽  
Source Parameters ◽  
Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Hazard Evaluation ◽  
Benchmark Solutions

ABSTRACT A new computational platform for seismic hazard assessment is presented. The platform, named SeismicHazard, allows characterizing the intensity, uncertainty, and likelihood of ground motions from subduction‐zone (shallow interface and intraslab) and crustal‐zone earthquakes, considering site‐specific as well as regional‐based assessments. The platform is developed as an object‐oriented MATLAB graphical user interface, and it features several state‐of‐the‐art capabilities for probabilistic and deterministic (scenario‐based) seismic hazard assessment. The platform integrates the latest developments in performance‐based earthquake engineering for seismic hazard assessment, including seismic zonation models, ground‐motion models (GMMs), ground‐motion correlation structures, and the estimation of design spectra (uniform hazard spectra, classical conditional mean spectrum (CMS) for a unique tectonic setting). In addition to these standard capabilities, the platform supports advanced features, not commonly found in existing seismic hazard codes, such as (a) computation of source parameters from earthquake catalogs, (b) vector‐probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, (c) hazard evaluation based on conditional GMMs and user‐defined GMMs, (d) uncertainty treatment in the median ground motions through continuous GMM distributions, (e) regional shaking fields, and (f) estimation of CMS considering multiple GMMs and multiple tectonic settings. The results from the platform have been validated against accepted and well‐documented benchmark solutions.

scholarly journals Seismic hazard evaluation

2000 ◽  
Vol 33 (3) ◽  
pp. 371-386 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul Somerville
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Ground Motions ◽  
Strong Motion ◽  
Earthquake Source ◽  
Hazard Evaluation ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Motion Models ◽  
The Past ◽  
Ground Motion Models

This paper reviews concepts and trends in seismic hazard characterization that have emerged in the past decade, and identifies trends and concepts that are anticipated during the coming decade. New methods have been developed for characterizing potential earthquake sources that use geological and geodetic data in conjunction with historical seismicity data. Scaling relationships among earthquake source parameters have been developed to provide a more detailed representation of the earthquake source for ground motion prediction. Improved empirical ground motion models have been derived from a strong motion data set that has grown markedly over the past decade. However, these empirical models have a large degree of uncertainty because the magnitude - distance - soil category parameterization of these models often oversimplifies reality. This reflects the fact that other conditions that are known to have an important influence on strong ground motions, such as near- fault rupture directivity effects, crustal waveguide effects, and basin response effects, are not treated as parameters of these simple models. Numerical ground motion models based on seismological theory that include these additional effects have been developed and extensively validated against recorded ground motions, and used to estimate the ground motions of past earthquakes and predict the ground motions of future scenario earthquakes. The probabilistic approach to characterizing the ground motion that a given site will experience in the future is very compatible with current trends in earthquake engineering and the development of building codes. Performance based design requires a more comprehensive representation of ground motions than has conventionally been used. Ground motions estimates are needed at multiple annual probability levels, and may need to be specified not only by response spectra but also by suites of strong motion time histories for input into time-domain non-linear analyses of structures.

A Monte Carlo approach to seismic hazard analysis

1999 ◽  
Vol 89 (4) ◽  
pp. 854-866 ◽  
Author(s):  
John E. Ebel ◽  
Alan L. Kafka
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Epicentral Distance ◽  
Ground Motions ◽  
Source Parameters ◽  
Parametric Models ◽  
Earthquake Catalog ◽  
Attenuation Relations ◽  
Ground Motion Attenuation

Abstract We have developed a Monte Carlo methodology for the estimation of seismic hazard at a site or across an area. This method uses a multitudinous resampling of an earthquake catalog, perhaps supplemented by parametric models, to construct synthetic earthquake catalogs and then to find earthquake ground motions from which the hazard values are found. Large earthquakes extrapolated from a Gutenberg-Richter recurrence relation and characteristic earthquakes can be included in the analysis. For the ground motion attenuation with distance, the method can use either a set of observed ground motion observations from which estimates are randomly selected, a table of ground motion values as a function of epicentral distance and magnitude, or a parametric ground motion attenuation relation. The method has been tested for sites in New England using an earthquake catalog for the northeastern United States and southeastern Canada, and it yields reasonable ground motions at standard seismic hazard values. This is true both when published ground motion attenuation relations and when a dataset of observed peak acceleration observations are used to compute the ground motion attenuation with distance. The hazard values depend to some extent on the duration of the synthetic catalog and the specific ground motion attenuation used, and the uncertainty in the ground motions increases with decreasing hazard probability. The program gives peak accelerations that are comparable to those of the 1996 U.S. national seismic hazard maps. The method can be adapted to compute seismic hazard for cases where there are temporal or spatial variations in earthquake occurrence rates or source parameters.

The analysis of historical seismograms: an important tool for seismic hazard assessment. Case histories from French and Italian earthquakes

2011 ◽  
Vol 182 (4) ◽  
pp. 367-379 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicola Alessandro Pino
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Southern Italy ◽  
Source Parameters ◽  
Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Historical Earthquakes ◽  
Waveform Analysis ◽  
Source Characteristics ◽  
Seismic Waveform ◽  
Earthquake Source Parameters

AbstractSeismic hazard assessment relies on the knowledge of the source characteristics of past earthquakes. Unfortunately, seismic waveform analysis, representing the most powerful tool for the investigation of earthquake source parameters, is only possible for events occurred in the last 100–120 years, i.e., since seismographs with known response function were developed. Nevertheless, during this time significant earthquakes have been recorded by such instruments and today, also thanks to technological progress, these data can be recovered and analysed by means of modern techniques.In this paper, aiming at giving a general sketch of possible analyses and attainable results in historical seismogram studies, I briefly describe the major difficulties in processing the original waveforms and present a review of the results that I obtained from previous seismogram analysis of selected significant historical earthquakes occurred during the first decades of the XXth century, including (A) the December 28, 1908, Messina straits (southern Italy), (B) the June 11, 1909, Lambesc (southern France) – both of which are the strongest ever recorded instrumentally in their respective countries –and (C) the July 13, 1930, Irpinia (southern Italy) events. For these earthquakes, the major achievements are represented by the assessment of the seismic moment (A, B, C), the geometry and kinematics of faulting (B, C), the fault length and an approximate slip distribution (A, C). The source characteristics of the studied events have also been interpreted in the frame of the tectonic environment active in the respective region of interest. In spite of the difficulties inherent to the investigation of old seismic data, these results demonstrate the invaluable and irreplaceable role of historical seismogram analysis in defining the local seismogenic potential and, ultimately, for assessing the seismic hazard. The retrieved information is crucial in areas where important civil engineering works are planned, as in the case of the single-span bridge to be built across the Messina straits and the ITER nuclear fusion power plant to be built in Cadarache, close to the location of the Lambesc event, and in regions characterized by high seismic risk, such as southern Apennines.

scholarly journals Neo-deterministic seismic hazard assessment of Corsica-Sardinia block

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Enrico Brandmayr ◽  
Franco Vaccari ◽  
Giuliano Francesco Panza
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Earthquake Ground Motion ◽  
Earthquake Catalog ◽  
Hazard Maps ◽  
Source Information ◽  
Deterministic Seismic Hazard ◽  
Seismogenic Nodes

AbstractThe Corsica-Sardinia lithospheric block is commonly considered as a region of very low seismicity and the scarce reported seismicity for the area has till now precluded the reliable assessment of its seismic hazard. The time-honored assumption has been recently questioned and the historical seismicity of Sardinia has been reevaluated. Even more, several seismogenic nodes capable of M5 + have been recognized in the Corsica-Sardinia block exploiting the morphostructural zonation technique, calibrated to earlier results obtained for the Iberian peninsula, which has structural lithospheric affinities with the Corsica-Sardinia block. All this allows now for the computation of reliable earthquake hazard maps at bedrock conditions exploiting the power of Neo Deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment (NDSHA) evaluation. NDSHA relies upon the fundamental physics of wave generation and propagation in complex geologic structures and generates realistic time series from which several earthquake ground motion parameters can be readily extracted. NDSHA exploits in an optimized way all the available knowledge about lithospheric mechanical parameters, seismic history, seismogenic zones and nodes. In accordance with continuum mechanics, the tensor nature of earthquake ground motion is preserved computing realistic signals using structural models obtained by tomographic inversion and earthquake source information readily available in literature. The way to this approach has been open by studies focused on continental Italy and Sicily, where the agreement between hazard maps obtained using seismogenic zones, informed by earthquake catalog data, and the maps obtained using only seismogenic nodes are very good.

scholarly journals What is the impact of the August 24, 2016 Amatrice earthquake on the seismic hazard assessment in central Italy?

2016 ◽  
Vol 59 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maura Murru ◽  
Matteo Taroni ◽  
Aybige Akinci ◽  
Giuseppe Falcone
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Central Italy ◽  
Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Motion Prediction ◽  
Ground Motion Prediction Equations ◽  
Prediction Equations ◽  
Ground Motion Prediction ◽  
The Impact

<p>The recent Amatrice strong event (M<sub>w</sub>6.0) occurred on August 24, 2016 in Central Apennines (Italy) in a seismic gap zone, motivated us to study and provide better understanding of the seismic hazard assessment in the macro area defined as “Central Italy”. The area affected by the sequence is placed between the M<sub>w</sub>6.0 1997 Colfiorito sequence to the north (Umbria-Marche region) the Campotosto area hit by the 2009 L’Aquila sequence M<sub>w</sub>6.3 (Abruzzo region) to the south. The Amatrice earthquake occurred while there was an ongoing effort to update the 2004 seismic hazard map (MPS04) for the Italian territory, requested in 2015 by the Italian Civil Protection Agency to the Center for Seismic Hazard (CPS) of the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia INGV. Therefore, in this study we brought to our attention new earthquake source data and recently developed ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs). Our aim was to validate whether the seismic hazard assessment in this area has changed with respect to 2004, year in which the MPS04 map was released. In order to understand the impact of the recent earthquakes on the seismic hazard assessment in central Italy we compared the annual seismic rates calculated using a smoothed seismicity approach over two different periods; the Parametric Catalog of the Historical Italian earthquakes (CPTI15) from 1871 to 2003 and the historical and instrumental catalogs from 1871 up to 31 August 2016. Results are presented also in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA), using the recent ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) at Amatrice, interested by the 2016 sequence.</p>

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