Comment on “Aftershock Statistics for Earthquakes in the St. Lawrence Valley” by Azadeh Fereidoni and Gail M. Atkinson

2015 ◽  
Vol 87 (1) ◽  
pp. 149-151 ◽  
Author(s):  
John E. Ebel
Keyword(s):  
Aftershock Statistics

A Prototype Operational Earthquake Loss Model for California Based on UCERF3-ETAS – A First Look at Valuation

2017 ◽  
Vol 33 (4) ◽  
pp. 1279-1299 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edward Field ◽  
Keith Porter ◽  
Kevin Milner
Keyword(s):  
Aftershock Sequence ◽  
Earthquake Forecast ◽  
Loss Model ◽  
Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence ◽  
Main Shocks ◽  
Scenario Earthquakes ◽  
Elastic Rebound ◽  
Spatiotemporal Clustering ◽  
Earthquake Loss ◽  
Aftershock Statistics

We present a prototype operational loss model based on UCERF3-ETAS, which is the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast with an Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) component. As such, UCERF3-ETAS represents the first earthquake forecast to relax fault segmentation assumptions and to include multi-fault ruptures, elastic-rebound, and spatiotemporal clustering, all of which seem important for generating realistic and useful aftershock statistics. UCERF3-ETAS is nevertheless an approximation of the system, however, so usefulness will vary and potential value needs to be ascertained in the context of each application. We examine this question with respect to statewide loss estimates, exemplifying how risk can be elevated by orders of magnitude due to triggered events following various scenario earthquakes. Two important considerations are the probability gains, relative to loss likelihoods in the absence of main shocks, and the rapid decay of gains with time. Significant uncertainties and model limitations remain, so we hope this paper will inspire similar analyses with respect to other risk metrics to help ascertain whether operationalization of UCERF3-ETAS would be worth the considerable resources required.

Investigations of intensities, aftershock statistics and the focal mechanism of Friuli earthquakes in 1975 and 1976

1976 ◽  
Vol 114 (6) ◽  
pp. 1095-1103 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Mayer-Rosa ◽  
N. Pavoni ◽  
R. Graf ◽  
B. Rast
Keyword(s):  
Focal Mechanism ◽  
Aftershock Statistics

Aftershock Statistics for Earthquakes in the St. Lawrence Valley

2014 ◽  
Vol 85 (5) ◽  
pp. 1125-1136 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Fereidoni ◽  
G. M. Atkinson
Keyword(s):  
Aftershock Statistics

Aftershock Statistics

2007 ◽  
pp. 1051-1076 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Shcherbakov ◽  
Donald L. Turcotte ◽  
John B. Rundle
Keyword(s):  
Aftershock Statistics

Aftershock Statistics of Major Subduction Earthquakes

2013 ◽  
Vol 103 (6) ◽  
pp. 3222-3234 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Shcherbakov ◽  
K. Goda ◽  
A. Ivanian ◽  
G. M. Atkinson
Keyword(s):  
Subduction Earthquakes ◽  
Aftershock Statistics

Aftershock Statistics

2005 ◽  
Vol 162 (6-7) ◽  
pp. 1051-1076 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Shcherbakov ◽  
Donald L. Turcotte ◽  
John B. Rundle
Keyword(s):  
Aftershock Statistics

Short-Term Earthquake Forecasting Using Early Aftershock Statistics

2011 ◽  
Vol 101 (1) ◽  
pp. 297-312 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Shebalin ◽  
C. Narteau ◽  
M. Holschneider ◽  
D. Schorlemmer
Keyword(s):  
Earthquake Forecasting ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Aftershock Statistics

Aftershock Statistics of the 1999 Chi–Chi, Taiwan Earthquake and the Concept of Omori Times

2012 ◽  
Vol 170 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 221-228 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ya-Ting Lee ◽  
Donald L. Turcotte ◽  
John B. Rundle ◽  
Chien-Chih Chen
Keyword(s):  
Taiwan Earthquake ◽  
Aftershock Statistics
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