Alternative Approaches to Modeling Epistemic Uncertainty in Ground Motions in Probabilistic Seismic-Hazard Analysis

2014 ◽  
Vol 85 (6) ◽  
pp. 1141-1144 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. M. Atkinson ◽  
J. J. Bommer ◽  
N. A. Abrahamson
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Epistemic Uncertainty ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Ground Motions ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis ◽  
Seismic Hazard Analysis ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard ◽  
Alternative Approaches

A SSHAC Level 3 Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis for a New-Build Nuclear Site in South Africa

2015 ◽  
Vol 31 (2) ◽  
pp. 661-698 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julian J. Bommer ◽  
Kevin J. Coppersmith ◽  
Ryan T. Coppersmith ◽  
Kathryn L. Hanson ◽  
Azangi Mangongolo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Epistemic Uncertainty ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis ◽  
Seismic Hazard Analysis ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard ◽  
Recurrence Rates ◽  
Moderate Seismicity ◽  
Level 3

A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis has been conducted for a potential nuclear power plant site on the coast of South Africa, a country of low-to-moderate seismicity. The hazard study was conducted as a SSHAC Level 3 process, the first application of this approach outside North America. Extensive geological investigations identified five fault sources with a non-zero probability of being seismogenic. Five area sources were defined for distributed seismicity, the least active being the host zone for which the low recurrence rates for earthquakes were substantiated through investigations of historical seismicity. Empirical ground-motion prediction equations were adjusted to a horizon within the bedrock at the site using kappa values inferred from weak-motion analyses. These adjusted models were then scaled to create new equations capturing the range of epistemic uncertainty in this region with no strong motion recordings. Surface motions were obtained by convolving the bedrock motions with site amplification functions calculated using measured shear-wave velocity profiles.

On Uncertainties in Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis

2016 ◽  
Vol 32 (3) ◽  
pp. 1405-1418 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mario Ordaz ◽  
Danny Arroyo
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Poisson Process ◽  
Epistemic Uncertainty ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis ◽  
Poisson Processes ◽  
Seismic Hazard Analysis ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard ◽  
Aleatory Uncertainty ◽  
Time Frames

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is, in essence, a method to deal with uncertainty, the importance of which justifies the use of a formal and rigorous background for its study. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to contribute to the reflections on how to correctly handle uncertainty in PSHA. We start by studying the simplest case, a Poisson process in which only “aleatory” uncertainty exists; then, we remove the Poisson hypothesis and find expressions for the occurrence probabilities of earthquakes in given time frames for general non-Poisson processes. Later, we include a simple variety of epistemic uncertainty and show that the resulting process is not Poissonian anymore, so computation of probabilities has to be made taking into account this fact. Next, we give a rigorous rule to combine uncertainties of aleatory and epistemic origin, which gives reasonable criteria to decide whether the epistemic uncertainty is large or not. Also, we propose unambiguous guidelines to decide whether a particular class of uncertainty has to be included in the hazard calculations as epistemic or as aleatory. Finally, we discuss the problem of how our estimates could differ if we wrongly considered that our epistemic uncertainty is of aleatory nature, or vice versa.

Accounting for Epistemic Uncertainty in Site Effects in Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kristin J. Ulmer ◽  
Adrian Rodriguez-Marek ◽  
Russell A. Green
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Site Effects ◽  
Epistemic Uncertainty ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Weighted Average ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis ◽  
Seismic Hazard Analysis ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard ◽  
Amplification Factors ◽  
Amplification Curve

ABSTRACT A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis performed for rock conditions and modified for soil conditions using deterministic site amplification factors does not account for uncertainty in site effects, which can be significant. One approach to account for such uncertainty is to compute a weighted average amplification curve using a logic tree that accounts for several possible scenarios with assigned weights corresponding to their relative likelihood or confidence. However, this approach can lead to statistical smoothing of the amplification curve and possibly to decreased computed hazard as epistemic uncertainty increases. This is against the expected trend that higher uncertainty leads to higher computed hazard, thus reducing the incentive for practitioners to characterize soil properties at a site. This study proposes a modified approach in which the epistemic uncertainty is captured in a plot of amplification factors versus period. Using a case history, the proposed method is shown to improve the issue with the weighted average method for at least two oscillator periods and to yield similar results for two other periods in which the highlighted issue is less significant.

Explicit Directivity-Pulse Inclusion in Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis

2007 ◽  
Vol 23 (4) ◽  
pp. 867-891 ◽  
Author(s):  
Polsak Tothong ◽  
C. Allin Cornell ◽  
J. W. Baker
Keyword(s):  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Ground Motions ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis ◽  
Seismic Hazard Analysis ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard ◽  
Pulse Period ◽  
Near Fault

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is widely used to estimate the ground motion intensity that should be considered when assessing a structure's performance. Disaggregation of PSHA is often used to identify representative ground motions in terms of magnitude and distance for structural analysis. Forward directivity–induced velocity pulses, which may occur in near-fault (or near-source) motions, are known to cause relatively severe elastic and inelastic response in structures of certain periods. Here, the principles of PSHA are extended to incorporate the possible occurrence of a velocity pulse in a near-fault ground motion. For each magnitude and site-source geometry, the probability of occurrence of a pulse is considered along with the probability distribution of the pulse period given that a pulse does occur. A near-source “narrowband” attenuation law modification to predict ground motion spectral acceleration ( Sa) amplitude that takes advantage of this additional pulse period information is utilized. Further, disaggregation results provide the probability that a given level of ground motion intensity is caused by a pulse-like ground motion, as well as the conditional probability distribution of the pulse period associated with that ground motion. These extensions improve the accuracy of PSHA for sites located near faults, as well as provide a rational basis for selecting appropriate near-fault ground motions to be used in the dynamic analyses of a structure.

Challenges of Building Logic Trees for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis

2012 ◽  
Vol 28 (4) ◽  
pp. 1723-1735 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julian J. Bommer
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Epistemic Uncertainty ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Continuous Distribution ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis ◽  
Seismic Hazard Analysis ◽  
Potential Range ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard ◽  
Logic Tree ◽  
Parameter Values

In the current practice of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), logic trees are widely used to represent and capture epistemic uncertainty in each element of the models for seismic sources and ground-motion prediction. Construction of a logic tree involves populating the branches with alternative models or parameter values, and then assigning weights, which together must represent the underlying continuous distribution. The logic tree must capture both the best estimates of what is known and the potential range of alternatives in light of what is currently not known. There are several scientific challenges involved in both populating the logic tree branches (for which new models often need to be developed) and in assigning weights to these branches. The most serious challenge facing this field now, however, may be a shortage of suitably qualified and experienced experts.

PEMETAAN DAERAH RENTAN GEMPA BUMI SEBAGAI DASAR PERENCANAAN TATA RUANG DAN WILAYAH DI PROVINSI SULAWESI BARAT

KURVATEK ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 41-47
Author(s):  
Marinda noor Eva
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis ◽  
Seismic Hazard Analysis ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard

Penelitian mengenai daerah rawan gempa bumi ini menggunakan Metode Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) di Provinsi Sulawesi Barat, dengan tujuan untuk memetakan tingkat kerawanan bahaya gempa bumi di Kabupaten Mamasa. Penelitian ini menggunakan data kejadian gempa bumi di Pulau Sulawesi dan sekitarnya dari tahun 1900 – 2015. Hasil pengolahan PSHA menggunakan Software Ez-Frisk 7.52 yang menghasilkan nilai hazard di batuan dasar pada kondisi PGA (T = 0,0 sekon), dengan periode ulang 500 tahun dan 2500 tahun berkisar antara (149,54 – 439,45) gal dan (287,18 – 762,81) gal. Nilai hazard di batuan dasar dengan kondisi spektra T = 0,2 sekon untuk periode ulang 500 tahun dan 2500 tahun adalah (307,04 – 1010,90) gal dan (569,48 – 1849,78) gal. Nilai hazard di batuan dasar dengan kondisi spektra T = 1,0 sekon untuk periode ulang 500 tahun dan 2500 tahun diperoleh nilai (118,01 – 265,75) gal dan (223,74 – 510,92) gal. Berdasarkan analisis PSHA, nilai PGA di Provinsi Sulawesi Barat dominan dipengaruhi oleh sumber gempa sesar.

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