Quality Assurance for Logic-Tree Implementation in Probabilistic Seismic-Hazard Analysis for Nuclear Applications: A Practical Example

2013 ◽  
Vol 84 (6) ◽  
pp. 938-945 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. J. Bommer ◽  
F. O. Strasser ◽  
M. Pagani ◽  
D. Monelli
Keyword(s):  
Quality Assurance ◽  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis ◽  
Seismic Hazard Analysis ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard ◽  
Logic Tree ◽  
Nuclear Applications

Challenges of Building Logic Trees for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis

2012 ◽  
Vol 28 (4) ◽  
pp. 1723-1735 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julian J. Bommer
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Epistemic Uncertainty ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Continuous Distribution ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis ◽  
Seismic Hazard Analysis ◽  
Potential Range ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard ◽  
Logic Tree ◽  
Parameter Values

In the current practice of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), logic trees are widely used to represent and capture epistemic uncertainty in each element of the models for seismic sources and ground-motion prediction. Construction of a logic tree involves populating the branches with alternative models or parameter values, and then assigning weights, which together must represent the underlying continuous distribution. The logic tree must capture both the best estimates of what is known and the potential range of alternatives in light of what is currently not known. There are several scientific challenges involved in both populating the logic tree branches (for which new models often need to be developed) and in assigning weights to these branches. The most serious challenge facing this field now, however, may be a shortage of suitably qualified and experienced experts.

PEMETAAN DAERAH RENTAN GEMPA BUMI SEBAGAI DASAR PERENCANAAN TATA RUANG DAN WILAYAH DI PROVINSI SULAWESI BARAT

KURVATEK ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 41-47
Author(s):  
Marinda noor Eva
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis ◽  
Seismic Hazard Analysis ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard

Penelitian mengenai daerah rawan gempa bumi ini menggunakan Metode Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) di Provinsi Sulawesi Barat, dengan tujuan untuk memetakan tingkat kerawanan bahaya gempa bumi di Kabupaten Mamasa. Penelitian ini menggunakan data kejadian gempa bumi di Pulau Sulawesi dan sekitarnya dari tahun 1900 – 2015. Hasil pengolahan PSHA menggunakan Software Ez-Frisk 7.52 yang menghasilkan nilai hazard di batuan dasar pada kondisi PGA (T = 0,0 sekon), dengan periode ulang 500 tahun dan 2500 tahun berkisar antara (149,54 – 439,45) gal dan (287,18 – 762,81) gal. Nilai hazard di batuan dasar dengan kondisi spektra T = 0,2 sekon untuk periode ulang 500 tahun dan 2500 tahun adalah (307,04 – 1010,90) gal dan (569,48 – 1849,78) gal. Nilai hazard di batuan dasar dengan kondisi spektra T = 1,0 sekon untuk periode ulang 500 tahun dan 2500 tahun diperoleh nilai (118,01 – 265,75) gal dan (223,74 – 510,92) gal. Berdasarkan analisis PSHA, nilai PGA di Provinsi Sulawesi Barat dominan dipengaruhi oleh sumber gempa sesar.

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