Earthquakes Induced by Wastewater Injection, Part I: Model Development and Hindcasting

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Iason Grigoratos ◽  
Ellen Rathje ◽  
Paolo Bazzurro ◽  
Alexandros Savvaidis
Keyword(s):  
Time Lag ◽  
Model Development ◽  
Time History ◽  
Companion Paper ◽  
Rate Dependency ◽  
Seismicity Rate ◽  
Index Model ◽  
Seismicity Rates ◽  
Central United States ◽  
Spatial Calibration

ABSTRACT In the past decade, several parts of central United States, including Oklahoma, have experienced unprecedented seismicity rates, following an increase in the volumes of wastewater fluids that are being disposed underground. In this article, we present a semi-empirical model to hindcast the observed seismicity given the injection time history. Our proposed recurrence model is a modified version of the Gutenberg–Richter relation, building upon the seismogenic index model, which predicts a linear relationship between the number of induced events and the injected volume. Our methodology accounts for the effects of spatiotemporal pore-pressure diffusion, the stressing-rate dependency of the time lag between injection and seismicity rate changes, and the rapid cessation of seismicity upon unloading. We also introduced a novel multiscale regression, which enabled us to produce grid-independent results of increased spatial resolution. Although the model is generic to be applicable in any region and has essentially only two free parameters for spatial calibration, it matches the earthquake time history of Oklahoma well across various scales, for both increasing and decreasing injection rates. In the companion paper (Grigoratos, Rathje, et al., 2020), we employ the model to distinguish the disposal-induced seismicity from the expected tectonic seismicity and test its forecasting potential.

Earthquakes Induced by Wastewater Injection, Part II: Statistical Evaluation of Causal Factors and Seismicity Rate Forecasting

2020 ◽  
Vol 110 (5) ◽  
pp. 2483-2497 ◽  
Author(s):  
Iason Grigoratos ◽  
Ellen Rathje ◽  
Paolo Bazzurro ◽  
Alexandros Savvaidis
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Evaluation ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
B Value ◽  
Causal Factors ◽  
Frequency Distributions ◽  
Wastewater Disposal ◽  
Seismicity Rate ◽  
Seismicity Rates ◽  
Central United States ◽  
Semi Empirical

ABSTRACT Wastewater disposal has been reported as the main cause of the recent surge in seismicity rates in several parts of central United States, including Oklahoma. In this article, we employ the semi-empirical model of the companion article (Grigoratos, Rathje, et al., 2020) first to test the statistical significance of this prevailing hypothesis and then to forecast seismicity rates in Oklahoma given future injection scenarios. We also analyze the observed magnitude–frequency distributions, arguing that the reported elevated values of the Gutenberg–Richter b-value are an artifact of the finiteness of the pore-pressure perturbation zones and a more appropriate value would be close to 1.0. The results show that the vast majority (76%) of the seismically active blocks in Oklahoma can be associated with wastewater disposal at a 95% confidence level. These blocks experienced 84% of the felt seismicity in Oklahoma after 2006, including the four largest earthquakes. In terms of forecasting power, the model is able to predict the evolution of the seismicity burst starting in 2014, both in terms of timing and magnitude, even when only using seismicity data through 2011 to calibrate the model. Under the current disposal rates, the seismicity is expected to reach the pre-2009 levels after 2025, whereas the probability of a potentially damaging Mw≥5.5 event between 2018 and 2026 remains substantial at around 45%.

Seismic quiescence, stress drops, and asperities in the New Hebrides arc

1983 ◽  
Vol 73 (1) ◽  
pp. 219-236
Author(s):  
M. Wyss ◽  
R. E. Habermann ◽  
Ch. Heiniger
Keyword(s):  
High Stress ◽  
Plate Boundary ◽  
Seismic Quiescence ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Seismicity Rate ◽  
Seismic Gaps ◽  
Main Shocks ◽  
Seismicity Rates ◽  
New Hebrides ◽  
Stress Drops

abstract The rate of occurrence of earthquakes shallower than 100 km during the years 1963 to 1980 was studied as a function of time and space along the New Hebrides island arc. Systematic examination of the seismicity rates for different magnitude bands showed that events with mb < 4.8 were not reported consistently over time. The seismicity rate as defined by mb ≧ 4.8 events was examined quantitatively and systematically in the source volumes of three recent main shocks and within two seismic gaps. A clear case of seismic quiescence could be shown to have existed before one of the large main shocks if a major asperity was excluded from the volume studied. The 1980 Ms = 8 rupture in the northern New Hebrides was preceded by a pattern of 9 to 12 yr of quiescence followed by 5 yr of normal rate. This pattern does not conform to the hypothesis that quiescence lasts up to the mainshock which it precedes. The 1980 rupture also did not fully conform to the gap hypothesis: half of its aftershock area covered part of a great rupture which occurred in 1966. A major asperity seemed to play a critical role in the 1966 and 1980 great ruptures: it stopped the 1966 rupture, and both parts of the 1980 double rupture initiated from it. In addition, this major asperity made itself known by a seismicity rate and stress drops higher than in the surrounding areas. Stress drops of 272 earthquakes were estimated by the MS/mb method. Time dependence of stress drops could not be studied because of changes in the world data set of Ms and mb values. Areas of high stress drops did not correlate in general with areas of high seismicity rate. Instead, outstandingly high average stress drops were observed in two plate boundary segments with average seismicity rate where ocean floor ridges are being subducted. The seismic gaps of the central and northern New Hebrides each contain seismically quiet regions. In the central New Hebrides, the 50 to 100 km of the plate boundary near 18.5°S showed an extremely low seismicity rate during the entire observation period. Low seismicity could be a permanent property of this location. In the northern New Hebrides gap, seismic quiescence started in mid-1972, except in a central volume where high stress drops are observed. This volume is interpreted as an asperity, and the quiescence may be interpreted as part of the preparation process to a future large main shock near 13.5°S.

Dynamic quality cost model based on complexity theory

2016 ◽  
Vol 33 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
NASARIO DE SOUSA FILIPE DUARTE JUNIOR
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Complexity Theory ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Cost Model ◽  
Dynamic Balance ◽  
Time Lag ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Model Development ◽  
Quality Costs ◽  
Dynamic Quality

Purpose This article presents a dynamic model of decision-making on Quality Costs, using the concepts of the Complexity Theory, consistent with the PAF models (Prevention Appraisal-Failures) and with the “optimum” derivation feature (generally towards Zero Defects). Design/methodology/approach After a literature review and the mathematical model development, this model was simulated in several situations and the results were evaluated, producing new insights. Findings The results show that the larger the delay between action and reaction "t" is, the more complex the system will be, and the effects of the decisions are experienced for “k” later periods, but for some specific “t” a dynamic balance is possible. Research limitations/implications The strategy is immutable. The quantity produced is not a variable in the model. The investment amount “x” is fixed. Originality/value This model is original due to the use of the Complexity Theory, and also to show that the optimum in terms of quality costs can be a positive value or Zero Defects, being in fact a moving target, depending on external conditions. The model value lies in the fact that it is dynamic, so closer to the reality of decision-making enterprises, and for revealing the importance of factors involved with complexity has, such as the time lag "t" for the success of management strategies of Quality Costs.

Risk from Oklahoma’s Induced Earthquakes: The Cost of Declustering

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeremy Maurer ◽  
Deborah Kane ◽  
Marleen Nyst ◽  
Jessica Velasquez
Keyword(s):  
Financial Risk ◽  
B Value ◽  
Earthquake Risk ◽  
Eastern United States ◽  
Induced Earthquakes ◽  
Magnitude Distribution ◽  
Seismicity Rate ◽  
Seismicity Rates ◽  
Tectonic Earthquakes ◽  
Frequency Magnitude

ABSTRACT The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has for each year 2016–2018 released a one-year seismic hazard map for the central and eastern United States (CEUS) to address the problem of induced and triggered seismicity (ITS) in the region. ITS in areas with historically low rates of earthquakes provides both challenges and opportunities to learn about crustal conditions, but few scientific studies have considered the financial risk implications of damage caused by ITS. We directly address this issue by modeling earthquake risk in the CEUS using the 1 yr hazard model from the USGS and the RiskLink software package developed by Risk Management Solutions, Inc. We explore the sensitivity of risk to declustering and b-value, and consider whether declustering methods developed for tectonic earthquakes are suitable for ITS. In particular, the Gardner and Knopoff (1974) declustering algorithm has been used in every USGS hazard forecast, including the recent 1 yr forecasts, but leads to the counterintuitive result that earthquake risk in Oklahoma is at its highest level in 2018, even though there were one-fifth as many earthquakes as occurred in 2016. Our analysis shows that this is a result of (1) the peculiar characteristics of the declustering algorithm with space-varying and time-varying seismicity rates, (2) the fact that the frequency–magnitude distribution of earthquakes in Oklahoma is not well described by a single b-value, and (3) at later times, seismicity is more spatially diffuse and seismicity rate increases are closer to more populated areas. ITS in Oklahoma may include a combination of swarm-like events with tectonic-style events, which have different frequency–magnitude and aftershock distributions. New algorithms for hazard estimation need to be developed to account for these unique characteristics of ITS.

scholarly journals Export fluxes in a naturally fertilized area of the Southern Ocean, the Kerguelen Plateau: seasonal dynamic reveals long lags and strong attenuation of particulate organic carbon flux (Part 1)

2014 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 17043-17087 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Rembauville ◽  
I. Salter ◽  
N. Leblond ◽  
A. Gueneugues ◽  
S. Blain
Keyword(s):  
Organic Carbon ◽  
Southern Ocean ◽  
Particulate Organic Carbon ◽  
Sediment Trap ◽  
Time Lag ◽  
Deep Ocean ◽  
Biomass Accumulation ◽  
Companion Paper ◽  
Kerguelen Plateau ◽  
Poc Flux

Abstract. A sediment trap moored in the naturally iron-fertilized Kerguelen plateau in the Southern Ocean provided an annual record of particulate organic carbon and nitrogen fluxes at 289 m. At the trap deployment depth current speeds were low (∼10 cm s−1) and primarily tidal-driven (M2 tidal component) providing favorable hydrodynamic conditions for the collection of flux. Particulate organic carbon (POC) flux was generally low (<0.5 mmol m−2 d−1) although two episodic export events (<14 days) of 1.5 mmol m−2 d−1 were recorded. These increases in flux occurred with a 1 month time lag from peaks in surface chlorophyll and together accounted for approximately 40% of the annual flux budget. The annual POC flux of 98.2 ± 4.4 mmol m−2 yr−1 was relatively low considering the shallow deployment depth, but similar to deep-ocean (>2 km) fluxes measured from similarly productive iron-fertilized blooms. Comparison of the sediment trap data with complementary estimates of biomass accumulation and export indicate that ∼90% of the flux was lost between 200 and 300 m. We hypothesize that grazing pressure, including mesozooplankton and mesopelagic fishes, may be responsible for rapid flux attenuation and the High Biomass Low Export regime characterizing the Kerguelen bloom. The importance of plankton community structure in controlling the temporal variability of export fluxes is addressed in a companion paper.

scholarly journals Numerical simulations of homogeneous freezing processes in the aerosol chamber AIDA

2002 ◽  
Vol 2 (5) ◽  
pp. 1467-1508
Author(s):  
W. Haag ◽  
B. Kärcher ◽  
S. Schaefers ◽  
O. Stetzer ◽  
O. Möhler ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Simulations ◽  
Size Distribution ◽  
Time History ◽  
Companion Paper ◽  
Aerosol Size Distribution ◽  
Size Spectrum ◽  
Mixing Ratio ◽  
Atmospheric Conditions ◽  
Aerosol Chamber ◽  
Homogeneous Freezing

Abstract. The homogeneous freezing of supercooled H2SO4/H2O aerosols in an aerosol chamber is investigated with a microphysical box model using the activity parameterization of the nucleation rate by Koop et al (2000). The simulations are constrained by measurements of pressure, temperature, total water mixing ratio, and the initial aerosol size distribution, described in a companion paper Möhler et al. (2002). Model results are compared to measurements conducted in the temperature range between 194 and 235 K, with cooling rates in the range between 0.5 and 2.6 K min-1, and at air pressures between 170 and 1000 hPa. The simulations focus on the time history of relative humidity with respect to ice, aerosol size distribution, partitioning of water between gas and particle phase, onset times of freezing, freezing threshold relative humidities, aerosol chemical composition at the onset of freezing, and the number of nucleated ice crystals. The latter three parameters can directly be inferred from the experiments, the former three aid in interpreting the measurements. Sensitivity studies are carried out to address the relative importance of uncertainties of basic quantities such as temperature, H2O mixing ratio, aerosol size spectrum, and deposition coefficient of H2O molecules on ice. The ability of the numerical simulations to provide detailed explanations of the observations greatly increases confidence in attempts to model this process under real  atmospheric conditions, for instance with regard to the formation of cirrus clouds or type-II polar stratospheric clouds, provided that accurate temperature and humidity measurements are available.

Seismic b-value within the Montney Play of Northeast British Columbia, Canada

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alireza Babaie Mahani
Keyword(s):  
British Columbia ◽  
Hydraulic Fracturing ◽  
Induced Seismicity ◽  
B Value ◽  
Systematic Difference ◽  
Magnitude Distribution ◽  
Seismicity Rate ◽  
Northern Area ◽  
Seismicity Rates ◽  
Frequency Magnitude Distribution

Critical analysis of induced earthquake occurrences requires comprehensive datasets obtained by dense seismographic networks. In this study, using such datasets, I take a detailed investigation into induced seismicity that occurred in the Montney play of northeast British Columbia, mostly caused by hydraulic fracturing. The frequency-magnitude distribution (FMD) of earthquakes in several temporal and spatial clusters, show fundamental discrepancies between seismicity in the southern Montney play (2014-2018) and the northern area (2014-2016). In both regions, FMDs follow the linear Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) relationship for magnitudes up to 2-3. While in the southern Montney, within the Fort St. John graben complex, the number of earthquakes at larger magnitudes falls off rapidly below the G-R line, within the northern area with a dominant compressional regime, the number of events increases above the G-R line. This systematic difference may have important implications with regard to seismic hazard assessments from induced seismicity in the two regions, although caution in the interpretation is warranted due to local variabilities. While for most clusters within the southern Montney area, the linear or truncated G-R relationship provide reliable seismicity rates for events below magnitude 4, the G-R relationship underestimates the seismicity rate for magnitudes above 3 in northern Montney. Using a well-located dataset of earthquakes in southern Montney, one can observe generally that 1) seismic productivity correlates well with the injected volume during hydraulic fracturing and 2) there is a clear depth dependence for the G-R b-value; clusters with deeper median depths show lower b-values than those with shallower depths.

Probabilistic Seismic Loss Analysis for the Design of Steel Structures: Optimizing for Multiple-Objective Functions

2016 ◽  
Vol 32 (3) ◽  
pp. 1587-1605 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sanaz Saadat ◽  
Charles V. Camp ◽  
Shahram Pezeshk
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Structural Response ◽  
Time History ◽  
Steel Structure ◽  
Steel Structures ◽  
Earthquake Hazard ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Structural System ◽  
Nonstructural Components ◽  
Central United States

An optimized seismic performance-based design (PBD) methodology considering structural and nonstructural system performance and seismic losses is considered to optimize the design of a steel structure. Optimization objectives are to minimize the initial construction cost associated with the weight of the structural system and the expected annual loss (EAL), considering direct economic losses. A non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm method is implemented for the multi-objective optimization. Achieving the desired confidence levels in meeting performance objectives of interest are set as constraints of the optimization problem. Inelastic time history analysis is used to evaluate structural response under different levels of earthquake hazard to obtain engineering demand parameters. Hazus fragility functions are employed for obtaining the damage probabilities for the structural system and nonstructural components. The optimized designs and losses are compared for the structure located in two geographic locations: one in the central United States and another in the western United States.

scholarly journals Stress and pore fluid pressure control of seismicity rate changes following the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake, Japan Version 2021125

2021 ◽  
Vol 73 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kodai Nakagomi ◽  
Toshiko Terakawa ◽  
Satoshi Matsumoto ◽  
Shinichiro Horikawa
Keyword(s):  
Focal Mechanism ◽  
Fluid Pressure ◽  
Pore Fluid ◽  
2016 Kumamoto Earthquake ◽  
Pore Fluid Pressure ◽  
Seismicity Rate ◽  
Kumamoto Earthquake ◽  
The 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake ◽  
Seismicity Rates ◽  
Seismicity Rate Changes

AbstractWe quantitatively examined the influence of pore fluid pressure and coseismic stress changes on the seismicity rate changes that followed the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake, on the basis of two approaches. One is a numerical calculation of the classic stress metric of ∆CFS, and the other is an inversion analysis of pore fluid pressure fields with earthquake focal mechanism data. The former calculation demonstrated that seismicity rate changes were consistent with the expectation from ∆CFS in 65% of the target region, whereas they were not in the remaining 35% of the region. The latter analysis indicates that seismicity rates increased in the regions where pore fluid pressure before the Kumamoto earthquake sequence was remarkably enhanced above hydrostatic, regardless of values of ΔCFS. This suggests that the increase in pore fluid pressure is one of the important physical mechanisms triggering aftershock generation. We obtained evidence that pore fluid pressure increased around the southern part of the main rupture zone after the mainshock, examining temporal changes in types of focal mechanism data. The average increases in pore fluid pressure were estimated to be 17, 20, and 17 MPa at depths of 5, 10, and 15 km, respectively. These large increases in pore fluid pressure cannot be explained under the undrained condition. The spatial derivative of the pore fluid pressure field in the depth direction implies that fluid supply from greater depths may have controlled increases in seismicity rates that followed the large earthquake.

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