3D Physics-Based Numerical Simulations of Ground Motion in Istanbul from Earthquakes along the Marmara Segment of the North Anatolian Fault

2020 ◽  
Vol 110 (5) ◽  
pp. 2559-2576 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Infantino ◽  
Ilario Mazzieri ◽  
Ali Güney Özcebe ◽  
Roberto Paolucci ◽  
Marco Stupazzini
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Simulations ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Seismic Source ◽  
North Anatolian Fault ◽  
Empirical Prediction ◽  
Earthquake Scenarios ◽  
The North ◽  
Specific Geometry ◽  
Directivity Effects

ABSTRACT In this article, the outcomes of a research cooperation between Politecnico di Milano, Italy, and Munich RE, Germany, aiming to improve ground-motion estimation in the Istanbul area through 3D physics-based numerical simulations (PBSs), are illustrated. To this end, 66 PBSs were run, considering earthquake scenarios of magnitude ranging from Mw 7 to 7.4 along the North Anatolian fault (NAF; Turkey), offshore Istanbul. The present article focuses on the detailed introduction of the simulated scenarios comprising: (1) the setup of the 3D numerical model, (2) the validation of the model with recordings of a recent earthquake, (3) the PBSs results, (4) a parametric study on the effect of different features of the seismic source, and (5) a comparison with well-established ground-motion prediction equations to highlight the main differences resulting from the use of a standard empirical approach as opposed to physics-based “source-to-site” numerical simulations. As a main outcome of this study, we observed as, for magnitude Mw 7 and 7.2, PBSs are in agreement with empirical prediction models whereas, for magnitude Mw 7.4, PBSs provide higher ground-motion estimates, as a consequence of directivity effects, amplified by the specific geometry of the portion of the NAF facing Istanbul.

scholarly journals Historical Earthquake Scenarios for the Middle Strand of the North Anatolian Fault Deduced from Archeo-Damage Inventory and Building Deformation Modeling

2020 ◽  
Vol 92 (1) ◽  
pp. 583-598
Author(s):  
Yacine Benjelloun ◽  
Julia de Sigoyer ◽  
Hélène Dessales ◽  
Laurent Baillet ◽  
Philippe Guéguen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Historical Earthquakes ◽  
Historical Seismicity ◽  
North Anatolian Fault ◽  
First Century ◽  
Building Vulnerability ◽  
Earthquake Scenarios ◽  
The North ◽  
Seismicity Catalog ◽  
Quality Ranking ◽  
The City

Abstract The city of İznik (ancient Nicaea), located on the middle strand of the North Anatolian fault zone (MNAF), presents outstanding archeological monuments preserved from the Roman and Ottoman periods (first to fifteenth centuries A.D.), bearing deformations that can be linked to past seismic shaking. To constrain the date and intensity of these historical earthquakes, a systematic survey of earthquake archeological effects (EAEs) is carried out on the city’s damaged buildings. Each of the 235 EAEs found is given a quality ranking, and the corresponding damage is classified according to the European Macroseismic Scale 1998 (EMS-98). We show that the walls oriented north–south were preferentially damaged, and that most deformations are perpendicular to the walls’ axes. The date of postseismic repairs is constrained with available archeological data and new C14 dating of mortar charcoals. Three damage episodes are evidenced: (1) between the sixth and late eighth centuries, (2) between the nineth and late eleventh centuries A.D., and (3) after the late fourteenth century A.D. The repartition of damage as a function of building vulnerability points toward a global intensity VIII on the EMS-98. The 3D modeling of a deformed Roman obelisk shows that only earthquakes rupturing the MNAF can account for this deformation. Their magnitude can be bracketed between Mw 6 and 7. Our archeoseismological study complements the historical seismicity catalog and confirms paleoseismological data, suggesting several destructive earthquakes along the MNAF, since the first century A.D. We suggest the fault might still have accumulated enough stress to generate an Mw 7+ rupture.

SEPTEMBER 26, 2019 Mw5.8 MARMARA SEA-SILIVRI (ISTANBUL) EARTHQUAKE: ANALYSIS OF GROUND MOTION RECORDS

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seyhan Okuyan Akcan ◽  
Can Zulfikar
Keyword(s):  
Ground Motion ◽  
North Anatolian Fault ◽  
Marmara Region ◽  
Marmara Sea ◽  
The North ◽  
Tectonically Active ◽  
Earthquake Research ◽  
Earthquake Research Institute ◽  
Ground Motion Records ◽  
Almost All

<p>Marmara region located on the western end of the North Anatolian Fault Zone is a tectonically active region in Turkey. There have been frequent severe earthquakes in the region and will continue to occur. There was no serious earthquake in the region after the 1999 Mw7.4 Kocaeli and Mw7.2 Düzce earthquakes. A Marmara Sea offshore earthquake Mw5.8 close to Silivri Town of Istanbul Metropolitan City has occurred on September 26, 2019 daytime at 13:59. The earthquake happened at the coordinate of 40.87N – 28.19E with a depth of 7.0km on the Kumburgaz segment of the North Anatolian Fault line. It was felt in almost all Marmara region. In some settlements in Istanbul City, slight to moderate damages were observed. A foreshock earthquake of Mw4.8 occurred on the same segment on 24 September, 2019. 150 aftershock events ranging from M1.0 to M4.1 have been recorded within the 24 hours after the mainshock. The ground motions have been recorded in the region by the several institutions including AFAD (Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency), KOERI (Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute) and IGDAS (Istanbul Gas Distribution Industry and Trade Inc.). The ground motion records and selected parameters have been examined in this study. The ground motion parameters (MMI, PGA, PGV, Sa, Sv, Sd) distribution have been achieved and checked by the recent NGA-West2 ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs); ASK2014, CY2014 and BSSA2014. The compatibility of the GMPEs for a moderate size Marmara Sea earthquake has been examined.</p>

scholarly journals Modelling ground motion in the Hutt Valley, New Zealand

2007 ◽  
Vol 40 (4) ◽  
pp. 190-199
Author(s):  
Shu Qin Ma ◽  
Martha Savage ◽  
Jiashun Yu
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Synthetic Seismograms ◽  
Spectral Ratios ◽  
Amplification Factors ◽  
Earthquake Scenarios ◽  
Seismic Arrays ◽  
Ground Motion Amplification ◽  
The North ◽  
The City

The Hutt Valley is an alluvial basin that hosts the city of Lower Hutt, in the North Island, New Zealand. The basin is bounded by the Wellington Fault on its northwest side, and exhibits ground motion amplification factors up to about 15, measured by several seismic experiments using weak motion and portable seismic arrays during 1990-1991. Synthetic seismograms computed by using local 1D stratigraphic models under each station reproduce qualitatively the amplitudes and durations of the corresponding observed seismograms at most of the soft site stations of the arrays. Amplification factors estimated from spectral ratios of the synthetic seismograms are up to about 9. The authors present comparisons of amplification between synthetics and observations, allowing a “calibration” of the model so that it could be used to determine more realistic ground amplifications for earthquake scenarios.

National Mitigation Strategy against Earthquakes in Central Asia

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sung-Woo Moon ◽  
Farkhod Hakimov ◽  
Jong Kim ◽  
Klaus Reicherter ◽  
Hans-Balder Havenith ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Simulations ◽  
Central Asia ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Site Effects ◽  
Site Response ◽  
Engineering Properties ◽  
Response Analysis ◽  
Earthquake Scenarios ◽  
Geological Conditions

<p>Throughout history, earthquakes have caused extensive damages in urban areas with important infrastructures and high population density. Especially, earthquakes have extensively damaged many regions of Central Asia (e.g., Tashkent in 1966, and Almaty in 1911). Hence, the estimation of the seismic hazard of the urban areas in Central Asia is very important due to the high level of seismicity in Central Asia and the rapid construction of new buildings. The high earthquake-induced damages in the cities often result from the local geological conditions and engineering properties of the soils that can produce significant site effects. Such seismic effects combined with the high vulnerability of buildings can result in extreme disasters during earthquakes. Therefore, geotechnical engineers/seismologists should decide to divide the city into specific microzones depending on their site effects and soil properties. However, conventional approaches in Central Asia have been proposed, based on (1) general engineering geological information; (2) the building code based on the estimates of the ground motions in terms of MSK-64 scale developed in 1978; and (3) the quantitative assessment only mapping and overlaying the data.</p><p>By characterizing the soft layers of their nature, thickness, and structure, and assessing the numerical model developed for the high-seismicity area of Central Asia, we can better assess specific site effects in each region of Central Asia. In addition, to predict the essential consequences of earthquakes, physically-based ground motion simulations should be developed by numerical simulations considering all possible processes of seismic wave propagation. Compared to empirical ground-motion predictions, numerical simulations of earthquake scenarios will provide much more flexible and better-suited solutions for most applications – especially those involving complex city environments. The ground-motion prediction equations or stochastic ground-motion estimates integrate characteristics of the earthquake source, path, attenuation, and site effects via approximate or statistical approaches. This method will provide rapid solutions that may be valid for a well-known context and would also be applied in Central Asia, for comparison with the numerical simulations. Finally, the quantitative approach for microzoning map incorporated with numerical simulation/site response analysis, for infrastructures (e.g., buildings, bridges, and dams) will be significantly useful in the future.</p>

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