Late Holocene Deformation near the Southern Limits of the Wabash Valley Seismic Zone of Kentucky and Indiana, Central United States, with Seismic Implications

Author(s):  
Ronald C. Counts ◽  
Roy Van Arsdale ◽  
Edward Woolery ◽  
Madhav K. Murari ◽  
Lewis A. Owen ◽  
...  

ABSTRACT The Wabash Valley seismic zone (WVSZ) is a region of diffuse, modern intraplate seismicity in the central United States with a history of strong, late Quaternary and Holocene seismicity as determined through paleoliquefaction studies. Yet, there are no specific faults linked to these strong WVSZ paleoearthquakes, some of which were as large as Mw 7.2–7.5. A multidisciplinary investigation of a linear, 5-kilometer-long and ∼3-meter-high scarp on the Ohio River floodplain in the southernmost WVSZ in western Kentucky evaluated whether the scarp is a fluvial landform or a tectonic feature. Geomorphic mapping and optically stimulated luminescence geochronology show that the age and orientation of the scarp are inconsistent with surrounding fluvial landforms. Trenching, core drilling, seismic reflection, electrical resistivity profiling, and cross sections of petroleum well logs all indicate a blind fault directly underlies the scarp. The scarp is interpreted to be the fold axis of a down-to-the-west monocline formed in alluvium by slip on the underlying blind fault, herein named the Uniontown fault. The Uniontown fault connects the Hovey Lake fault, striking N20°E and having   ∼0.5  km of documented strike-slip offset, with an unnamed fault complex to the south that strikes N40°E, suggesting the Uniontown fault is part of a larger, Paleozoic structure that has been reactivated with strike-slip deformation. Geomorphic mapping utilizing luminescence and radiocarbon geochronology indicates that folding and faulting occurred ∼3.5  ka. Paleoliquefaction was suppressed by a thick clay cap in the main Ohio Valley, but paleoliquefaction features are widespread on Ohio River tributaries. Gravel dikes at one site had a maximum age of 3.4±0.4  ka, confirming the region has experienced strong, late Holocene shaking. Estimates using vertical displacement and rupture length indicate that slip on the Uniontown scarp could produce an Mw 6.2–7.7 earthquake, which is comparable to other large paleoearthquakes in the WVSZ paleoseismic record.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Renee M. Reichenbacher ◽  
◽  
Valarie Harrison ◽  
Taylor Andrew Weathers ◽  
Roy B. Van Arsdale ◽  
...  

2008 ◽  
Vol 47 (6) ◽  
pp. 1573-1589 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven A. Mauget ◽  
Jonghan Ko

Abstract Simple phase schemes to predict seasonal climate based on leading ENSO indicators can be used to estimate the value of forecast information in agriculture and watershed management, but may be limited in predictive skill. Here, a simple two-tier statistical method is used to hindcast seasonal precipitation over the continental United States, and the resulting skill is compared with that of ENSO phase systems based on Niño-3 sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) and Southern Oscillation index (SOI) persistence. The two-tier approach first predicts Niño-3 winter season SSTA, and then converts those predictions to categorical precipitation hindcasts via a simple phase translation process. The hindcasting problem used to make these comparisons is relevant to winter wheat production over the central United States. Thus, given the state of seasonal SOI and Niño-3 indicators defined before August, the goal is to predict the tercile category of the following November–March precipitation. Generally, it was found that the methods based on either predicted or persisted winter Niño-3 conditions were skillful over areas where ENSO affects U.S. winter precipitation—that is, the Southeast and the Gulf Coast, Texas, the southern and central plains, the Southwest, Northwest, and the Ohio River valley—and that the two-tier approach based on predicted Niño-3 conditions was more likely to provide the best skill. Skill based on SOI persistence was generally lower over many of those regions and was insignificant over broad parts of the central and southwest United States, but did lead the other methods over the Ohio River valley and the northwest. A more restrictive test of leading hindcast skill showed that the skill advantages of the two-tier approach over the central and western United States were not substantial, and mainly highlighted SOI persistence’s lack of skill over the central United States and leading skill over the Ohio River valley. However, two-tier hindcasts based on neural-network-predicted Niño-3 SSTA were clearly more skillful than both ENSO phase methods over areas of the Southeast. It is suggested that the relative skill advantage of the two-tier approach may be due in part to the use of arbitrary thresholds in ENSO phase systems.


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