Impact of Down‐Dip Rupture Limit and High‐Stress Drop Subevents on Coseismic Land‐Level Change during Cascadia Megathrust Earthquakes

2019 ◽  
Vol 109 (6) ◽  
pp. 2187-2197 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erin A. Wirth ◽  
Arthur D. Frankel
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Seismic Velocity ◽  
High Stress ◽  
Strong Motion ◽  
Velocity Model ◽  
Source Model ◽  
Coseismic Deformation ◽  
Earthquake Scenarios ◽  
Megathrust Earthquakes ◽  
Level Change

Abstract Seismic hazard associated with Cascadia megathrust earthquakes is strongly dependent on the landward rupture extent and heterogeneous fault properties. We use 3D numerical simulations and a seismic velocity model for Cascadia to estimate coseismic deformation due to M 9–9.2 earthquake scenarios. Our earthquake source model is based on observations of the 2010 M 8.8 Maule and 2011 M 9.0 Tohoku earthquakes, which exhibited distinct strong motion‐generating subevents in the deep portion of the fault. We compare our estimates for land‐level change to paleoseismic estimates for coseismic coastal subsidence during the A.D. 1700 Cascadia earthquake. Results show that megathrust rupture extending to the 1  cm/yr locking contour provides a good match to geologic data. In addition, along‐strike variations in coastal subsidence can be matched by including low slip, strong motion‐generating subevents in the down‐dip region of the megathrust. This work demonstrates the potential to improve seismic hazard estimates for Cascadia earthquakes by comparing physics‐based earthquake simulations with geologic observations.

Seismogenic source model of the 2019 Mw 5.9 East-Azerbaijan earthquake (NW Iran) through Sentinel-1 DInSAR measurements

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emanuela Valerio ◽  
Francesco Casu ◽  
Vincenzo Convertito ◽  
Claudio De Luca ◽  
Vincenzo De Novellis ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Seismic Source ◽  
Source Model ◽  
Fault Model ◽  
Strike Slip ◽  
Coseismic Deformation ◽  
Lateral Strike Slip ◽  
Nw Iran ◽  
Seismogenic Source ◽  
East Azerbaijan

<p>On 7 November 2019 (22:47 UTC) a M<sub>w</sub> 5.9 earthquake struck the East-Azerbaijan region, in the north-western Iran, about 100 km east of Tabriz, the fourth largest city of Iran with a population of over two million. This seismic event caused both widespread damage to the surrounding villages and casualties, killing about 5 people and injuring hundreds. The occurrence of this earthquake is related to the main geodynamic regime controlled by the oblique Arabia-Eurasia convergence and, in particular, this event is inserted in the tectonic context of the East-Azerbaijan Plateau, a complex mountain belt that contains internal major fold-and-thrust belts.</p><p>In this work, we first generate the coseismic deformation maps by applying the Differential Synthetic Aperture Radar Interferometry (DInSAR) technique to SAR data collected along ascending and descending orbits by the Sentinel-1 constellation of the European Copernicus Programme. Then, we invert them through analytical modeling in order to better constrain the geometry and characteristics of the main source. The retrieved fault model revealed a shallow seismic source approximately NE–SW-striking and characterized by a left-lateral strike-slip, southeast-dipping faulting mechanism. Our retrieved solution reveals a new minor fault never mapped in geological maps before, whose kinematics is compatible with that of the surrounding structures and with the local and regional stress states. Moreover, we also use the preferred fault model to calculate the Coulomb Failure Function at the nearby receiver faults; taking into account the surrounding geological structures reported in literature, we show that all the considered receiver faults have been positively stressed by the main event. This is also confirmed by the distribution of the aftershocks that occurred near the considered faults. The analysis of the earthquake nucleated along these left-lateral strike-slip minor fault is essential to improve our knowledge of the East-Azerbaijan Plateau; therefore, further studies are required to evaluate their role in seismic hazard definition of northwest of Iran, in order to help in the mitigation of the seismic hazard in seismogenic regions unprepared for the occurrence of seismic events.</p><p><em>This work is supported by: the 2019-2021 IREA-CNR and Italian Civil Protection Department agreement, H2020 EPOS-SP (GA 871121), ENVRI-FAIR (GA 824068) projects, and the I-AMICA (PONa3_00363) project.</em></p>

Three-Dimensional Seismic-Wave Propagation Simulations in the Southern Korean Peninsula Using Pseudodynamic Rupture Models

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jaeseok Lee ◽  
Jung-Hun Song ◽  
Seongryong Kim ◽  
Junkee Rhie ◽  
Seok Goo Song
Keyword(s):  
Wave Propagation ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Korean Peninsula ◽  
Seismic Velocity ◽  
Ground Motions ◽  
Velocity Model ◽  
Wave Radiation ◽  
3D Seismic ◽  
Earthquake Scenarios ◽  
Large Earthquakes

ABSTRACT Accurate and practical ground-motion predictions for potential large earthquakes are crucial for seismic hazard analysis of areas with insufficient instrumental data. Studies on historical earthquake records of the Korean Peninsula suggest that damaging earthquakes are possible in the southeastern region. Yet classical ground-motion prediction methods are limited in considering the physical rupture process and its effects on ground motion in complex velocity structures. In this study, we performed ground-motion simulations based on rigorous physics through pseudodynamic source modeling and wave propagation simulations in a 3D seismic velocity model. Ensembles of earthquake scenarios were generated by emulating the one- and two-point statistics of earthquake source parameters derived from a series of dynamic rupture models. The synthetic seismograms and the distributions of simulated peak ground velocities (PGVs) were compared with the observations of the 2016 Mw 5.4 Gyeongju earthquake in the Korean Peninsula. The effects of surface-wave radiation, rupture directivity, and both local and regional amplifications from the 3D wave propagation were reproduced accurately in the spatial distribution of simulated PGVs, in agreement with the observations from dense seismic networks by mean log residuals of −0.28 and standard deviations of 0.78. Amplifications in ground motions were found in regions having low crustal velocities and in regions of constructive interference from the crustal shear-wave phases associated with postcritical reflections from the Moho discontinuity. We extended the established approach to earthquake scenarios of Mw 6.0, 6.5, and 7.0, at the same location, to provide the distribution of ground motions from potential large earthquakes in the area. Although we demonstrate the value of these simulations, improvements in the accuracy of the 3D seismic velocity model and the scaling relationship of the source models would be necessary for a more accurate estimation of near-source ground motions.

scholarly journals Updated determination of earthquake magnitudes at the Swiss Seismological Service

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roman Racine ◽  
Carlo Cauzzi ◽  
John Clinton ◽  
Donat Fäh ◽  
Benjamin Edwards ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Source Region ◽  
Strong Motion ◽  
Velocity Model ◽  
Seismic Network ◽  
Event Processing ◽  
Waveform Data ◽  
Data Archiving ◽  
Short Period ◽  
Magnitude Determination

<p>The Swiss Seismological Service (SED; http://www.seismo.ethz.ch) at ETH Zürich is the federal agency in charge of monitoring earthquakes in Switzerland and neighboring areas, and for the assessment of seismic hazard and risk for the region. The SED seismic network largely relies on software and databases integrated in the SeisComP3 monitoring suite for waveform acquisition, automatic and manual event processing, event alerting, web infrastructure, data archiving and dissemination. Data from all digital seismic stations acquired by the SED over the last 30 years - broadband (presently ~230), strong-motion (~185), short-period (~65), permanent and temporary - are homogeneously integrated in the seismic network processing tools and products. Waveform data from the Swiss National Seismic Networks are openly available through the SED website and ORFEUS EIDA / Strong-Motion (http://orfeus-eu.org/data/) data gateways. The SED earthquake catalogue is publicly available through FDSN Event web services at  the SED (http://arclink.ethz.ch/fdsnws/event/1/). The Swiss seismic hazard maps are integrated in the EFEHR portal (http://www.efehr.org). The SED is updating its strategy for magnitude determination to make it fully consistent with the state-of-the-art in engineering seismology and seismic hazard studies in Switzerland, and to optimise the use of its dense seismic monitoring infrastructure. Among the planned changes are the: (a) adoption of a new ML relationship applicable in the near-source region at epicentral distances smaller than 15-20 km; (b) inclusion of ML station corrections based on empirically observed (de)amplification with respect to the Swiss reference rock velocity model and associated predictions; (c)  seamless computation of Mw based on spectral fitting of recorded FAS using a Swiss specific model. In this contribution we present and discuss the updated magnitude computations for a playback dataset of thousands of recorded earthquakes, and compare them with the current official estimates. We discuss the expected impacts of the new magnitude determination strategy on the SED event processing chain in SeisComP3, the SED catalogues and other seismological products. We welcome community feedback on our planned transition strategy.</p>

scholarly journals Ground motion simulations for finite-fault earthquake scenarios on the Húsavík-Flatey Fault, North Iceland

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Claudia Abril ◽  
Martin Mai ◽  
Benedikt Halldórsson ◽  
Bo Li ◽  
Alice Gabriel ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Velocity Model ◽  
Fault System ◽  
Fault Rupture ◽  
Ground Shaking ◽  
Earthquake Scenarios ◽  
3D Velocity Model ◽  
Finite Fault

<p>The Tjörnes Fracture Zone (TFZ) in North Iceland is the largest and most complex zone of transform faulting in Iceland, formed due to a ridge-jump between two spreading centers of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, the Northern Volcanic Zone and Kolbeinsey Ridge in North Iceland. Strong earthquakes (Ms>6) have repeatedly occurred in the TFZ and affected the North Icelandic population. In particular the large historical earthquakes of 1755 (Ms 7.0) and 1872 (doublet, Ms 6.5), have been associated with the Húsavı́k-Flatey Fault (HFF), which is the largest linear strike-slip transform fault in the TFZ, and in Iceland. We simulate fault rupture on the HFF and the corresponding near-fault ground motion for several potential earthquake scenarios, including scenario events that replicate the large 1755 and 1872 events. Such simulations are relevant for the town of Húsavı́k in particular, as it is located on top of the HFF and is therefore subject to the highest seismic hazard in the country. Due to the mostly offshore location of the HFF, its precise geometry has only recently been studied in more detail. We compile updated seismological and geophysical information in the area, such as a recently derived three-dimensional velocity model for P and S waves. Seismicity relocations using this velocity model, together with bathymetric and geodetic data, provide detailed information to constrain the fault geometry. In addition, we use this 3D velocity model to simulate seismic wave propagation. For this purpose, we generate a variety of kinematic earthquake-rupture scenarios, and apply a 3D finite-difference method (SORD) to propagate the radiated seismic waves through Earth structure. Slip distributions for the different scenarios are computed using a von Karman autocorrelation function whose parameters are calibrated with slip distributions available for a few recent Icelandic earthquakes. Simulated scenarios provide synthetic ground motion and time histories and estimates of peak ground motion parameters (PGA and PGV) at low frequencies (<2 Hz) for Húsavík and other main towns in North Iceland along with maps of ground shaking for the entire region [130 km x 110 km]. Ground motion estimates are compared with those provided by empirical ground motion models calibrated to Icelandic earthquakes and dynamic fault-rupture simulations for the HFF. Directivity effects towards or away from the coastal areas are analyzed to estimate the expected range of shaking. Thick sedimentary deposits (up to ∼4 km thick) located offshore on top of the HFF (reported by seismic, gravity anomaly and tomographic studies) may affect the effective depth of the fault's top boundary and the surface rupture potential. The results of this study showcase the extent of expected ground motions from significant and likely earthquake scenarios on the HFF. Finite fault earthquake simulations complement the currently available information on seismic hazard for North Iceland, and are a first step towards a systematic and large-scale earthquake scenario database on the HFF, and for the entire fault system of the TFZ, that will enable comprehensive and physics-based hazard assessment in the region.</p>

Super-Resolution of Seismic Velocity Model Guided by Seismic Data

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Yinshuo Li ◽  
Jianyong Song ◽  
Wenkai Lu ◽  
Patrice Monkam ◽  
Yile Ao
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Data ◽  
Seismic Velocity ◽  
Super Resolution ◽  
Velocity Model

scholarly journals Ground Response and Historical Buildings in Avellino (Campania, Southern Italy): Clues from a Retrospective View Concerning the 1980 Irpinia-Basilicata Earthquake

Geosciences ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (12) ◽  
pp. 503
Author(s):  
Lucia Nardone ◽  
Fabrizio Terenzio Gizzi ◽  
Rosalba Maresca
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Southern Italy ◽  
Strong Motion ◽  
Historical Buildings ◽  
Borehole Data ◽  
Ground Response ◽  
Maximum Acceleration ◽  
Observed Damage ◽  
Hazard Disaggregation

Cultural heritage represents our legacy with the past and our identity. However, to assure heritage can be passed on to future generations, it is required to put into the field knowledge as well as preventive and safeguard actions, especially for heritage located in seismic hazard-prone areas. With this in mind, the article deals with the analysis of ground response in the Avellino town (Campania, Southern Italy) and its correlation with the effects caused by the 23rd November 1980 Irpinia earthquake on the historical buildings. The aim is to get some clues about the earthquake damage cause-effect relationship. To estimate the ground motion response for Avellino, where strong-motion recordings are not available, we made use of the seismic hazard disaggregation. Then, we made extensive use of borehole data to build the lithological model so being able to assess the seismic ground response. Overall, results indicate that the complex subsoil layers influence the ground motion, particularly in the lowest period (0.1–0.5 s). The comparison with the observed damage of the selected historical buildings and the maximum acceleration expected indicates that the damage distribution cannot be explained by the surface geology effects alone.

A Suite of Alternative Ground-Motion Models (GMMs) for Israel

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Soumya Kanti Maiti ◽  
Gony Yagoda-Biran ◽  
Ronnie Kamai
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Empirical Data ◽  
Epistemic Uncertainty ◽  
Ground Motions ◽  
Plate Boundary ◽  
Strong Motion ◽  
Engineering Applications ◽  
Motion Models ◽  
Ground Motion Models

ABSTRACT Models for estimating earthquake ground motions are a key component in seismic hazard analysis. In data-rich regions, these models are mostly empirical, relying on the ever-increasing ground-motion databases. However, in areas in which strong-motion data are scarce, other approaches for ground-motion estimates are sought, including, but not limited to, the use of simulations to replace empirical data. In Israel, despite a clear seismic hazard posed by the active plate boundary on its eastern border, the instrumental record is sparse and poor, leading to the use of global models for hazard estimation in the building code and all other engineering applications. In this study, we develop a suite of alternative ground-motion models for Israel, based on an empirical database from Israel as well as on four data-calibrated synthetic databases. Two host models are used to constrain model behavior, such that the epistemic uncertainty is captured and characterized. Despite the lack of empirical data at large magnitudes and short distances, constraints based on the host models or on the physical grounds provided by simulations ensure these models are appropriate for engineering applications. The models presented herein are cast in terms of the Fourier amplitude spectra, which is a linear, physical representation of ground motions. The models are suitable for shallow crustal earthquakes; they include an estimate of the median and the aleatory variability, and are applicable in the magnitude range of 3–8 and distance range of 1–300 km.

A dynamic source model for the San Fernando earthquake

1978 ◽  
Vol 68 (6) ◽  
pp. 1555-1576
Author(s):  
Michel Bouchon
Keyword(s):  
Fault Plane ◽  
High Stress ◽  
Time History ◽  
High Strength ◽  
High Amplitude ◽  
Tectonic Stress ◽  
Source Model ◽  
Dynamic Crack ◽  
San Fernando ◽  
High Level

abstract We model the San Fernando earthquake as a propagating rupture in a half-space, using for the slip-time-history on the fault plane analytical expressions which approximate the slip functions of dynamic crack models obtained by Das and Aki (1977a, b). We synthesize the strong ground motions and accelerations at the Pacoima Dam site and compute the teleseismic signals for different models of cracks. Three major featuras of the data–the strong pulse associated with the beginning of the rupture, the high acceleration phase on the Pacoima Dam records, and the presence of ripples on the teleseismic seismograms–which are not compatible with a smooth rupture process, are well explained by a crack with barriers model where the rupture encounters, along the fault plane, barriers or obstacles of high strength materials which may remain unbroken after the passage of the rupture front. A high-stress drop (400 to 500 bars) is required in the hypocentral area to explain the high-amplitude short-duration first pulse of the teleseismic records. This indicates a high level of tectonic stress in the area. A study of the earthquake series following the main shock shows that the aftershocks which took place in the region where major slipping occurred during the earthquake may represent the release of some of the barriers.

Simulation-Based Seismic Hazard Assessment Using Monte-Carlo Earthquake Catalogs: Application to CyberShake

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah Azar ◽  
Mayssa Dabaghi
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Computational Time ◽  
Earthquake Catalog ◽  
Earthquake Catalogs ◽  
Earthquake Scenarios ◽  
Simulation Based ◽  
Hazard Curves

ABSTRACT The use of numerical simulations in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) has achieved a promising level of reliability in recent years. One example is the CyberShake project, which incorporates physics-based 3D ground-motion simulations within seismic hazard calculations. Nonetheless, considerable computational time and resources are required due to the significant processing requirements imposed by source-based models on one hand, and the large number of seismic sources and possible rupture variations on the other. This article proposes to use a less computationally demanding simulation-based PSHA framework for CyberShake. The framework can accurately represent the seismic hazard at a site, by only considering a subset of all the possible earthquake scenarios, based on a Monte-Carlo simulation procedure that generates earthquake catalogs having a specified duration. In this case, ground motions need only be simulated for the scenarios selected in the earthquake catalog, and hazard calculations are limited to this subset of scenarios. To validate the method and evaluate its accuracy in the CyberShake platform, the proposed framework is applied to three sites in southern California, and hazard calculations are performed for earthquake catalogs with different lengths. The resulting hazard curves are then benchmarked against those obtained by considering the entire set of earthquake scenarios and simulations, as done in CyberShake. Both approaches yield similar estimates of the hazard curves for elastic pseudospectral accelerations and inelastic demands, with errors that depend on the length of the Monte-Carlo catalog. With 200,000 yr catalogs, the errors are consistently smaller than 5% at the 2% probability of exceedance in 50 yr hazard level, using only ∼3% of the entire set of simulations. Both approaches also produce similar disaggregation patterns. The results demonstrate the potential of the proposed approach in a simulation-based PSHA platform like CyberShake and as a ground-motion selection tool for seismic demand analyses.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document