A New Technique to Calculate Earthquake Stress Transfer and to Probe the Physics of Aftershocks

2020 ◽  
Vol 110 (2) ◽  
pp. 863-873 ◽  
Author(s):  
Margarita Segou ◽  
Tom Parsons
Keyword(s):  
Stress Reduction ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Stress Transfer ◽  
The United States ◽  
Physical Principle ◽  
Static Stress ◽  
Stress Change ◽  
Earthquake Triggering ◽  
Triggered Earthquakes ◽  
Stress Changes

ABSTRACT Coseismic stress changes have been the primary physical principle used to explain aftershocks and triggered earthquakes. However, this method does not adequately forecast earthquake rates and diverse rupture populations when subjected to formal testing. We show that earthquake forecasts can be impaired by assumptions made in physics-based models such as the existence of hypothetical optimal faults and regional scale invariability of the stress field. We compare calculations made under these assumptions along with different realizations of a new conceptual triggering model that features a complete assay of all possible ruptures. In this concept, there always exists a set of theoretical planes that has positive failure stress conditions under a combination of background and coseismic static stress change. In the Earth, all of these theoretical planes may not exist, and if they do, they may not be ready to fail. Thus, the actual aftershock plane may not correspond to the plane with the maximum stress change value. This is consistent with observations that mainshocks commonly activate faults with exotic orientations and rakes. Our testing ground is the M 7.2, 2010 El Mayor–Cucapah earthquake sequence that activated multiple diverse fault populations across the United States–Mexico border in California and Baja California. We carry out a retrospective test involving 748 M≥3.0 triggered earthquakes that occurred during a 3 yr period after the mainshock. We find that a probabilistic expression of possible aftershock planes constrained by premainshock rupture patterns is strongly favored (89% of aftershocks consistent with static stress triggering) versus an optimal fault implementation (35% consistent). Results show that coseismic stress change magnitudes do not necessarily control earthquake triggering, instead we find that the summed background stress and coseismic stress change promotes diverse ruptures. Our model can thus explain earthquake triggering in regions where optimal plane mapping shows coseismic stress reduction.

scholarly journals Earthquake static stress transfer in the 2013 Gulf of Valencia (Spain) seismic sequence

Solid Earth ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (5) ◽  
pp. 857-882 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lluís Saló ◽  
Tànit Frontera ◽  
Xavier Goula ◽  
Luis G. Pujades ◽  
Alberto Ledesma
Keyword(s):  
Stress Transfer ◽  
Mediterranean Coast ◽  
Static Stress ◽  
Earthquake Triggering ◽  
Underground Gas Storage ◽  
Focal Mechanism Solutions ◽  
Stress Changes ◽  
Coulomb Failure ◽  
As Stress

Abstract. On 24 September 2013, an Ml 3.6 earthquake struck in the Gulf of Valencia (Spain) near the Mediterranean coast of Castelló, roughly 1 week after gas injections conducted in the area to develop underground gas storage had been halted. The event, felt by the nearby population, led to a sequence build-up of felt events which reached a maximum of Ml 4.3 on 2 October.Here, we study the role of static stress transfer as an earthquake-triggering mechanism during the main phase of the sequence, as expressed by the eight felt events. By means of the Coulomb failure function, cumulative static stress changes are quantified on fault planes derived from focal mechanism solutions (which act as both source and receiver faults) and on the previously mapped structures in the area (acting only as stress receivers in our modeling). Results suggest that static stress transfer played a destabilizing role and point towards an SE-dipping structure underlying the reservoir (or various with analogous geometry) that was most likely activated during the sequence. One of the previously mapped faults could be geometrically compatible, yet our study supports deeper sources. Based on this approach, the influence of the main events in the occurrence of future and potentially damaging earthquakes in the area would not be significant.

Investigation of Dynamic and Static Effects on Earthquake Triggering Using Different Rate and State Friction Laws and Marmara Simulation

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eyup Sopaci ◽  
Atilla Arda Özacar
Keyword(s):  
Onset Time ◽  
Static Stress ◽  
Fault System ◽  
Dynamic Effects ◽  
Earthquake Triggering ◽  
Dynamic Changes ◽  
System Parameters ◽  
Fault Segment ◽  
Stress Changes ◽  
Rate And State Friction

<p>The clock of an earthquake can be advanced due to dynamic and static changes when a triggering signal is applied to a stress-loading fault. While static effects decrease rapidly with distance, dynamic effects can reach thousands of kilometers away. Therefore, earthquake triggering is traditionally associated to static stress changes at local distances and to dynamic effects at greater scales. However, static and dynamic effects near the triggering signal are often nested, thus identifying which effect dominates, becomes unclear. So far, earthquake triggering has been tested using different rate-and-state friction (RSF) laws utilizing alternative views of friction without much comparison. In this study, the analogy of an earthquake is simulated using single degree of freedom spring-block systems governed with three different RSF laws, namely “Dieterich”, “Ruina” and “Perrin”. First, the fault systems are evolved until they reach a stable limit cycle and then static, dynamic and their combination are applied as triggering signals. During synthetic simulations, effects of the triggering signal parameters (onset time, size, duration and frequency) and the fault system parameters (fault stiffness, characteristic slip distance, direct velocity and time dependent state effects) are tested separately. Our results indicate that earthquake triggering is controlled mainly by the onset time, size and duration of the triggering signal but not much sensitive to the signal frequency. In terms of fault system parameters, the fault stiffness and the direct velocity effect are the critical parameters in triggering processes. Among the tested RSF laws, “Ruina” law is more sensitive than “Dieterich” law to both static and dynamic changes and “Perrin” is apparently the most sensitive law to dynamic changes. Especially, when the triggering onset time is close to an unperturbed failure time (future earthquake), dynamic changes result the largest clock advancement, otherwise, static stress changes are substantially more effective. In the next step, realistic models will be established to simulate the effect of the recent (26 September 2019) Marmara earthquake with Mw=5.7 on the locked Kumburgaz fault segment of the North Anatolian Fault Zone. The triggering earthquake will be simulated by combining the static stress change computed via Coulomb law and the dynamic effects using ground motions recorded at broadband seismic stations within similar distances. Outcomes will help us to better understand the effects of static and dynamic changes on the seismic cycle of the Kumburgaz fault segment, which is expected to break soon with a possibly big earthquake causing damage at the metropolitan area of Istanbul in Turkey.</p>

Quasi-Static Stress Change Around Mount Fuji Region Due to Tohoku Mega-Thrust Earthquake

2014 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 365-372 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eisuke Fujita ◽  
◽  
Tomofumi Kozono ◽  
Norio Toda ◽  
Aiko Kikuchi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Crustal Deformation ◽  
Source Region ◽  
Tohoku Earthquake ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Static Stress ◽  
Stress Change ◽  
Surrounding Area ◽  
Stress Changes ◽  
Static Stress Change ◽  
Magma System

The 2011 Tohoku mega-thrust earthquake caused huge crustal deformation over a wide are of Mainland Japan. Many mega-thrust earthquakes worldwide have triggered volcanic eruptions nearby, and it is assumed that stress changes due to the Tohoku earthquake resulted in a perturbation to the magma system. The objectives of our study is to evaluate this perturbation quantitatively and to analyze the mechanism of the interaction between mega-thrust earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. This paper focuses on quasi-static stress change due to viscous relaxation of a source region and the surrounding area.

scholarly journals Effect of heterogeneities on evaluating earthquake triggering of volcanic eruptions

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 231-237 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Takekawa ◽  
H. Mikada ◽  
T. Goto
Keyword(s):  
Correlation Length ◽  
Stress Transfer ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Static Stress ◽  
Chamber Wall ◽  
Maximum Effect ◽  
Earthquake Triggering ◽  
Velocity Perturbation ◽  
Failure Pressure ◽  
Scale Heterogeneity

Abstract. Recent researches have indicated coupling between volcanic eruptions and earthquakes. Some of them calculated static stress transfer in subsurface induced by the occurrences of earthquakes. Most of their analyses ignored the spatial heterogeneity in subsurface, or only took into account the rigidity layering in the crust. On the other hand, a smaller scale heterogeneity of around hundreds of meters has been suggested by geophysical investigations. It is difficult to reflect that kind of heterogeneity in analysis models because accurate distributions of fluctuation are not well understood in many cases. Thus, the effect of the ignorance of the smaller scale heterogeneity on evaluating the earthquake triggering of volcanic eruptions is also not well understood. In the present study, we investigate the influence of the assumption of homogeneity on evaluating earthquake triggering of volcanic eruptions using finite element simulations. The crust is treated as a stochastic media with different heterogeneous parameters (correlation length and magnitude of velocity perturbation) in our simulations. We adopt exponential and von Karman functions as spatial auto-correlation functions (ACF). In all our simulation results, the ignorance of the smaller scale heterogeneity leads to underestimation of the failure pressure around a chamber wall, which relates to dyke initiation. The magnitude of the velocity perturbation has a larger effect on the tensile failure at the chamber wall than the difference of the ACF and the correlation length. The maximum effect on the failure pressure in all our simulations is about twice larger than that in the homogeneous case. This indicates that the estimation of the earthquake triggering due to static stress transfer should take account of the heterogeneity of around hundreds of meters.

Static stress changes and earthquake triggering during the 1954 Fairview Peak and Dixie Valley earthquakes, central Nevada

1997 ◽  
Vol 87 (3) ◽  
pp. 521-527
Author(s):  
S. J. Caskey ◽  
S. G. Wesnousky
Keyword(s):  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Field Studies ◽  
Static Stress ◽  
Earthquake Triggering ◽  
Three Dimensional Model ◽  
Surface Displacements ◽  
Stress Changes ◽  
Northward Propagation ◽  
Dixie Valley ◽  
Element Approach

Abstract The 16 December 1954 Dixie Valley (MS 6.8) earthquake followed the Fairview Peak (MS 7.2) earthquake by only 4 min and 20 sec. A three-dimensional model of the two dip-slip fault systems based on recent detailed field studies shows the ruptures were separated by a 6-km step in surface trace. A boundary-element approach shows that the static stress changes imposed by rupture of the Fairview Peak earthquake are in the correct sense to explain the northward propagation of faulting along four distinct faults that comprise the Fairview Peak earthquake and the subsequent triggering of the Dixie Valley earthquake. The location of rupture end points at sites where static stresses change sign is also used to suggest that static stress changes may play a role in controlling the extent of fault ruptures. We also observe that the largest coseismic surface displacements tend to correlate with those sections of the faults showing the largest positive stress change from preceding ruptures.

scholarly journals Static stress transfer from the May 20, 2012, M 6.1 Emilia-Romagna (northern Italy) earthquake using a co-seismic slip distribution model

2012 ◽  
Vol 55 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Athanassios Ganas ◽  
Zafeiria Roumelioti ◽  
Konstantinos Chousianitis
Keyword(s):  
Stress Transfer ◽  
Northern Italy ◽  
Static Stress ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
Coulomb Stress ◽  
Coulomb Stress Changes ◽  
Seismic Slip ◽  
Seismological Data ◽  
Stress Changes ◽  
Fixed Orientation

<p>We model the static stress transfer for the May 2012 northern Italy earthquakes, assuming that failure of the crust occurs by shear. This allows the mechanics of the process to be approximated by the Okada (1992) expressions for displacement and strain fields due to a finite rectangular source in an elastic, homogeneous and isotropic half-space. The slip model of the May 20, 2012, earthquake was derived using empirical Green’s functions and a least-squares inversion scheme of source time functions computed from regional broadband seismological data. The derived model is then incorporated into the computation of Coulomb stress change (ΔCFF) to investigate the possibility that the May 20, 2012, M 6.1 event triggered the second earthquake that occurred on May 29, 2012 (M 5.9). We calculate the Coulomb stress changes for both: (a) optimally oriented planes to regional compression; and (b) planes of fixed orientation assuming that E-W striking, south-dipping thrust faults of the May 29, 2012, type of rupture was a candidate for failure. In both cases, we find that the triggering is promoted as the ΔCFF values in the hypocentral area of the May 29, 2012, earthquake are positive (between 0.61-0.74 bar).</p><p> </p>

scholarly journals Earthquake static stress transfer in the 2013 Valencia Gulf (Spain) seismic sequence

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lluis Salo ◽  
Tanit Frontera ◽  
Xavier Goula ◽  
Lluis Pujades ◽  
Alberto Ledesma
Keyword(s):  
Stress Transfer ◽  
Mediterranean Coast ◽  
Static Stress ◽  
Earthquake Triggering ◽  
Underground Gas Storage ◽  
Focal Mechanism Solutions ◽  
Coulomb Failure ◽  
Final Stress ◽  
Static Stress Change

Abstract. On September 24th, 2013, a ML 3.6 earthquake struck in Valencia Gulf (Spain), near the Mediterranean coast of Castellon, roughly a week after the gas injections conducted in the area to develop an Underground Gas Storage had been halted. The event, felt by the nearby population, led to a sequence build-up of felt events which reached a maximum of ML 4.3 on October 2nd. Here, we study the role of static stress change as an earthquake triggering mechanism during the sequence, and provide quantitative assessment of the known faults final stress state. By means of the Coulomb Failure Function, the evolution of static stress is quantified both on fault planes derived from focal mechanism solutions (which act as source and receiver faults), and on the previously mapped structures in the area (receiver faults). Results show that static stress transfer could have acted as a partial trigger, and point towards an ESE-dipping structure as the most likely to have been activated during the sequence. Based on this approach, the influence of the studied events in the occurrence of future and potentially damaging earthquakes in the area would be, at most, of second order.

scholarly journals Earthquake triggering model based on normal-stress-dependent Nagata law: application to the 2016 Mie offshore earthquake

2020 ◽  
Vol 72 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shingo Yoshida ◽  
Takuto Maeda ◽  
Naoyuki Kato
Keyword(s):  
Shear Stress ◽  
Normal Stress ◽  
Static Stress ◽  
Stress Dependence ◽  
Slow Slip ◽  
Earthquake Triggering ◽  
Slow Slip Events ◽  
Stress Changes ◽  
Stress Dependent ◽  
Offshore Earthquake

Abstract We propose a normal-stress-dependent Nagata law. Nagata et al. (J Geophys Res 117:B02314, 2012) revised the rate- and state-dependent friction law by introducing the shear stress dependence. We further extended the Nagata law by incorporating the normal stress dependence obtained by Linker and Dieterich (J Geophys Res 97:4923–4940, 1992). We performed numerical simulations of earthquake triggering by assuming the extended Nagata law. In the case of repeated earthquakes, we applied dynamic Coulomb failure function (CFF) perturbation due to normal or shear stress changes. CFF perturbation increased the slip velocity after the cessation of perturbation, relative to that of the repeated events without triggering. This leads to dynamic earthquake triggering for certain perturbation amplitudes with time to instability of 0 to several tens of days. In addition, triggering potential of the static CFF jump (ΔCFFs) was investigated. Static stress perturbation has a higher triggering potential than dynamic stress perturbation for the same magnitude of CFF. The equivalent ΔCFFeq is evaluated for dynamic perturbation that results in a triggering potential approximately the same as in the case of static stress perturbation if ΔCFFs = ΔCFFeq. We calculated ΔCFFeq on the interface of the Philippine Sea plate for the Mie offshore earthquake, which occurred around the Nankai Trough on April 1, 2016, using OpenSWPC. The results shows that ΔCFFeq is large around the trough, where slow slip events followed the Mie earthquake, suggesting that a large ΔCFFeq may have triggered slow slip events.

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