Long‐Term Probabilistic Forecast for M≥5.0 Earthquakes in the Eastern Tibetan Plateau from Adaptively Smoothed Seismicity

2019 ◽  
Vol 109 (3) ◽  
pp. 1110-1124
Author(s):  
Guo Wu ◽  
Qing Zhou ◽  
Hong‐Liu Ran ◽  
Ren‐Mao Yuan
Keyword(s):  
Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Probabilistic Forecast ◽  
Eastern Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Smoothed Seismicity

scholarly journals Long-Term Changes in Rainfall over Eastern China and Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation Associated with Recent Global Warming

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (6) ◽  
pp. 1544-1562 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ping Zhao ◽  
Song Yang ◽  
Rucong Yu
Keyword(s):  
Tibetan Plateau ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Rainy Season ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Southern China ◽  
Eastern China ◽  
Northern China ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Eastern Tibetan Plateau

Abstract Using precipitation data from rain gauge stations over China, the authors examine the long-term variation of the durations of persistent rainfall over eastern China for the past 40 years. The variation in the regional rainfall was related to a change in the global-mean surface temperature from the relatively cold period of the 1960s–70s to the relatively warm period of the 1980s–90s. Compared to the cold period, the persistent rainfall in the warm period began earlier and ended later over southern China, lengthening the rainy season by 23 days, but it began later and ended earlier over northern China, shortening the rainy season by 14 days. This change in the durations of persistent rainfall contributed to the pattern of the long-term change in rainfall: southern floods and northern droughts. The earlier beginning of the rainy season over southern China was associated with a more westward subtropical high over the western North Pacific and a stronger low-level low near the eastern Tibetan Plateau during spring. On the other hand, the later ending of the rainy season over southern China and the shorter rainy season over northern China were related to a more westward subtropical high over the western Pacific and a weaker trough near the eastern Tibetan Plateau during summer. The snow cover over the Tibetan Plateau exhibited a positive trend in winter and spring, which increased the local soil moisture content and cooled the overlying atmosphere during spring and summer. The sea surface temperature over the tropical Indian Ocean and the western North Pacific also displayed a positive trend. The cooling over land and the warming over oceans reduced the thermal contrast between East Asia and the adjacent oceans. Moreover, the low-level low pressure system over East Asia weakened during summer. Under such circumstances, the East Asian summer monsoon circulation weakened, with anomalous northerly winds over eastern China. Correspondingly, the mei-yu front stagnated over the Yangtze River valley, and the associated pattern of vertical motions increased the rainfall over the valley and decreased the rainfall over northern China.

scholarly journals Has tree density increased at alpine treelines on the eastern Tibetan Plateau?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuandong Zhang ◽  
Ning Miao ◽  
Shirong Liu
Keyword(s):  
Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Climate Warming ◽  
Tree Regeneration ◽  
Tree Density ◽  
Eastern Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Treeline Ecotone ◽  
Long Term Monitoring ◽  
Low Altitude ◽  
Term Monitoring

Abstract Treeline densification, along with increased growth rates, is considered a primary manifestation of climate warming at alpine treelines. However, treeline densification has typically been inferred from comparisons of present-day tree density with estimates of former densities inferred from current age structure; the densification has not been verified with long-term monitoring data and thus empirical testing is needed. In this study, a series of plots was established along an altitudinal gradient in a treeline ecotone on the eastern Tibetan Plateau; the plots were then surveyed repeatedly for ten years to analyse spatiotemporal variation in tree regeneration. The densities of Abies fargesii var. faxoniana seedlings and saplings increased from low altitude sites to high altitude sites, before dropping to zero beyond the treeline. The density of fir seedlings at the treeline in 2018 was significantly lower than in 2008. There were no significant differences in the density of saplings, small trees, medium trees, or old-growth trees between 2018 and 2008. As compared to regeneration patterns from 65 years ago, treeline densification represents a spatial phenomenon related to altitude, but not a temporal pattern on the eastern Tibetan Plateau. A more comprehensive understanding of the effects of climate warming on treeline regeneration will require further long-term monitoring and research.

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