Assessing the Applicability of Ground‐Motion Models for Induced Seismicity Application in Central and Eastern North America

2018 ◽  
Vol 108 (4) ◽  
pp. 2265-2277 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ali Farhadi ◽  
Shahram Pezeshk ◽  
Naeem Khoshnevis
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Induced Seismicity ◽  
Eastern North America ◽  
Motion Models ◽  
Ground Motion Models

scholarly journals A New Procedure for Evaluating Ground-Motion Models, with Application to Hydraulic-Fracture-Induced Seismicity in the United Kingdom

2020 ◽  
Vol 110 (5) ◽  
pp. 2380-2397 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gemma Cremen ◽  
Maximilian J. Werner ◽  
Brian Baptie
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Shale Gas ◽  
Hydraulic Fracture ◽  
Induced Seismicity ◽  
Ground Motions ◽  
Induced Earthquakes ◽  
Statistical Tool ◽  
Motion Models ◽  
Ground Motion Models

ABSTRACT An essential component of seismic hazard analysis is the prediction of ground shaking (and its uncertainty), using ground-motion models (GMMs). This article proposes a new method to evaluate (i.e., rank) the suitability of GMMs for modeling ground motions in a given region. The method leverages a statistical tool from sensitivity analysis to quantitatively compare predictions of a GMM with underlying observations. We demonstrate the performance of the proposed method relative to several other popular GMM ranking procedures and highlight its advantages, which include its intuitive scoring system and its ability to account for the hierarchical structure of GMMs. We use the proposed method to evaluate the applicability of several GMMs for modeling ground motions from induced earthquakes due to U.K. shale gas development. The data consist of 195 recordings at hypocentral distances (R) less than 10 km for 29 events with local magnitude (ML) greater than 0 that relate to 2018/2019 hydraulic-fracture operations at the Preston New Road shale gas site in Lancashire and 192 R<10  km recordings for 48 ML>0 events induced—within the same geologic formation—by coal mining near New Ollerton, North Nottinghamshire. We examine: (1) the Akkar, Sandikkaya, and Bommer (2014) models for European seismicity; (2) the Douglas et al. (2013) model for geothermal-induced seismicity; and (3) the Atkinson (2015) model for central and eastern North America induced seismicity. We find the Douglas et al. (2013) model to be the most suitable for almost all of the considered ground-motion intensity measures. We modify this model by recomputing its coefficients in line with the observed data, to further improve its accuracy for future analyses of the seismic hazard of interest. This study both advances the state of the art in GMM evaluation and enhances understanding of the seismic hazard related to U.K. shale gas development.

Ground Motion Model for Small-to-Moderate Earthquakes in Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas

2019 ◽  
Vol 35 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-20 ◽  
Author(s):  
Georgios Zalachoris ◽  
Ellen M. Rathje
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Induced Seismicity ◽  
Ground Motions ◽  
Site Amplification ◽  
Eastern North America ◽  
Motion Model ◽  
Ground Motion Model ◽  
Magnitude Scaling ◽  
Proposed Model

A ground motion model (GMM) tuned to the characteristics of the observed, and potentially induced, seismicity in Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas is developed using a database of 4,528 ground motions recorded during 376 events of Mw > 3.0 in the region. The GMM is derived using the referenced empirical approach with an existing Central and Eastern North America model as the reference GMM and is applicable for Mw = 3.0–5.8 and hypocentral distances less than 500 km. The proposed model incorporates weaker magnitude scaling than the reference GMM for periods less than about 1.0 s, resulting in smaller predicted ground motions at larger magnitudes. The proposed model predicts larger response spectral accelerations at short hypocentral distances (≤20 km), which is likely because of the shallow hypocenters of events in Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. Finally, the VS30 scaling for the newly developed model predicts less amplification at VS30 < 600 m/s than the reference GMM, which is likely because of the generally thinner sediments in the study area. This finding is consistent with recent studies regarding site amplification in Central and Eastern North America.

Empirical Linear Seismic Site Amplification in Central and Eastern North America

2019 ◽  
Vol 35 (2) ◽  
pp. 849-881 ◽  
Author(s):  
Grace A. Parker ◽  
Jonathan P. Stewart ◽  
Youssef M. A. Hashash ◽  
Ellen M. Rathje ◽  
Kenneth W. Campbell ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Site Response ◽  
Site Amplification ◽  
Eastern North America ◽  
Resonance Effects ◽  
Bayesian Techniques ◽  
Motion Data ◽  
Motion Models ◽  
Scaling Models

We present empirical linear site amplification models conditioned on time-averaged shear wave velocity in the upper 30 m ( VS30) for central and eastern North America. The models are derived from ground motion data and site condition information from the NGA-East project and are intended for use with reference rock ground motion models. Site amplification is found to scale with VS30 for intermediate to stiff site conditions ( VS30 > 300 m/s) in a weaker manner than for active tectonic regions such as the western United States. For stiff sites ( >800 m/s), we find differences in site amplification for previously glaciated and nonglaciated regions, with nonglaciated sites having lower amplification. The models were developed using a combination of least-squares, mixed effects, and Bayesian techniques; the latter show that accounting for predictor uncertainty does not appreciably affect the median model but decreases model dispersion. Our VS30-scaling models are modular and additive to simulation-based models for the nonlinear components of site response. A limitation of the present models is that they do not account for site-specific resonance effects.

Site effects of the Denis-Perron dam (SM-3): A case study in Eastern North America

2021 ◽  
pp. 875529302110194
Author(s):  
Daniel Verret ◽  
Denis LeBœuf ◽  
Éric Péloquin
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Site Effects ◽  
Transfer Functions ◽  
Ground Motions ◽  
Published Data ◽  
Eastern North America ◽  
Ground Acceleration ◽  
Large Dams ◽  
Moderate Seismicity

Eastern North America (ENA) is part of a region with low-to-moderate seismicity; nonetheless, some significant seismic events have occurred in the last few decades. Recent events have reemphasized the need to review ENA seismicity and ground motion models, along with continually reevaluating and updating procedures related to the seismic safety assessment of hydroelectric infrastructures, particularly large dams in Québec. Furthermore, recent researchers have shown that site-specific characteristics, topography, and valley shapes may significantly aggravate the severity of ground motions. To the best of our knowledge, very few instrumental data from actual earthquakes have been published for examining the site effects of hydroelectric dam structures located in eastern Canada. This article presents an analysis of three small earthquakes that occurred in 1999 and 2002 at the Denis-Perron (SM-3) dam. This dam, the highest in Québec, is a rockfill embankment structure with a height of 171 m and a length of 378 m; it is located in a narrow valley. The ground motion datasets of these earthquakes include the bedrock and dam crest three-component accelerometer recordings. Ground motions are analyzed both in the time and frequency domains. The spectral ratios and transfer functions obtained from these small earthquakes provide new insights into the directionality of resonant frequencies, vibration modes, and site effects for the Denis-Perron dam. The crest amplifications observed for this dam are also compared with previously published data for large dams. New statistical relationships are proposed to establish dam crest amplification on the basis of the peak ground acceleration (PGA) at the foundation.

On the mN, M Relation for Eastern North American Earthquakes

1987 ◽  
Vol 58 (4) ◽  
pp. 119-124 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gail M. Atkinson ◽  
David M. Boore
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Stochastic Model ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Seismic Moment ◽  
The Other ◽  
Moment Magnitude ◽  
Scaling Relations ◽  
Eastern North America ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Meaningful Data

Abstract A stochastic model of ground motion has been used as a basis for comparison of data and theoretically-predicted relations between mN (commonly denoted by mbLg) and moment magnitude for eastern North America (ENA) earthquakes. mN magnitudes are recomputed for several historical ENA earthquakes, to ensure consistency of definition and provide a meaningful data set. We show that by itself the magnitude relation cannot be used as a discriminant between two specific spectral scaling relations, one with constant stress and the other with stress increasing with seismic moment, that have been proposed for ENA earthquakes.

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