From Induced Seismicity to Direct Time-Dependent Seismic Hazard

2012 ◽  
Vol 102 (6) ◽  
pp. 2563-2573 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. Convertito ◽  
N. Maercklin ◽  
N. Sharma ◽  
A. Zollo
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Induced Seismicity ◽  
Time Dependent

scholarly journals Time-Dependent Seismic Hazard Analysis for Induced Seismicity: The Case of St Gallen (Switzerland), Geothermal Field

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (10) ◽  
pp. 2747
Author(s):  
Vincenzo Convertito ◽  
Hossein Ebrahimian ◽  
Ortensia Amoroso ◽  
Fatemeh Jalayer ◽  
Raffaella De Matteis ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Induced Seismicity ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Geothermal Field ◽  
Seismic Hazard Analysis ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Recurrence Time ◽  
Maximum Magnitude ◽  
Small Magnitude

Reliable seismic hazard analyses are crucial to mitigate seismic risk. When dealing with induced seismicity the standard Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) has to be modified because of the peculiar characteristics of the induced events. In particular, the relative shallow depths, small magnitude, a correlation with field operations, and eventually non-Poisson recurrence time. In addition to the well-known problem of estimating the maximum expected magnitude, it is important to take into account how the industrial field operations affect the temporal and spatial distribution of the earthquakes. In fact, during specific stages of the project the seismicity may be hard to be modelled as a Poisson process—as usually done in the standard PSHA—and can cluster near the well or migrate toward hazardous known or—even worse—not known faults. Here we present a technique in which we modify the standard PSHA to compute time-dependent seismic hazard. The technique allows using non-Poisson models (BPT, Weibull, gamma and ETAS) whose parameters are fitted using the seismicity record during distinct stages of the field operations. As a test case, the procedure has been implemented by using data recorded at St. Gallen deep geothermal field, Switzerland, during fluid injection. The results suggest that seismic hazard analyses, using appropriate recurrence model, ground motion predictive equations, and maximum magnitude allow the expected ground-motion to be reliably predicted in the study area. The predictions can support site managers to decide how to proceed with the project avoiding adverse consequences.

A Hybrid Time‐Dependent Probabilistic Seismic‐Hazard Model for Canterbury, New Zealand

2016 ◽  
Vol 87 (6) ◽  
pp. 1311-1318 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew C. Gerstenberger ◽  
David A. Rhoades ◽  
Graeme H. McVerry
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Hazard Model ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard

Induced Seismicity in Western Canada Linked to Tectonic Strain Rate: Implications for Regional Seismic Hazard

2018 ◽  
Vol 45 (20) ◽  
Author(s):  
Honn Kao ◽  
Roy Hyndman ◽  
Yan Jiang ◽  
Ryan Visser ◽  
Brindley Smith ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Strain Rate ◽  
Induced Seismicity ◽  
Western Canada

The Seismic Hazard Implications of Declustering and Poisson Assumptions Inferred from a Fully Time-Dependent Model

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edward H. Field ◽  
Kevin R. Milner ◽  
Nicolas Luco
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Poisson Process ◽  
Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Aftershock Sequence ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Full Time ◽  
Quiet Time ◽  
Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence ◽  
True Time

ABSTRACT We use the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3) epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model (UCERF3-ETAS) to evaluate the effects of declustering and Poisson assumptions on seismic hazard estimates. Although declustering is necessary to infer the long-term spatial distribution of earthquake rates, the question is whether it is also necessary to honor the Poisson assumption in classic probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. We use 500,000 yr, M ≥ 2.5 synthetic catalogs to address this question, for which UCERF3-ETAS exhibits realistic spatiotemporal clustering effects (e.g., aftershocks). We find that Gardner and Knopoff (1974) declustering, used in the U.S. Geological Survey seismic hazard models, lowers 2% in 50 yr and risk-targeted ground-motion hazard metrics by about 4% on average (compared with the full time-dependent [TD] model), with the reduction being 5% at 40% in 50 yr ground motions. Keeping all earthquakes and treating them as a Poisson process increases these same hazard metrics by about 3%–12%, on average, due to the removal of relatively quiet time periods in the full TD model. In the interest of model simplification, bias minimization, and consideration of the probabilities of multiple exceedances, we agree with others (Marzocchi and Taroni, 2014) that we are better off keeping aftershocks and treating them as a Poisson process rather than removing them from hazard consideration via declustering. Honoring the true time dependence, however, will likely be important for other hazard and risk metrics, and this study further exemplifies how this can now be evaluated more extensively.

scholarly journals A New Procedure for Evaluating Ground-Motion Models, with Application to Hydraulic-Fracture-Induced Seismicity in the United Kingdom

2020 ◽  
Vol 110 (5) ◽  
pp. 2380-2397 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gemma Cremen ◽  
Maximilian J. Werner ◽  
Brian Baptie
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Shale Gas ◽  
Hydraulic Fracture ◽  
Induced Seismicity ◽  
Ground Motions ◽  
Induced Earthquakes ◽  
Statistical Tool ◽  
Motion Models ◽  
Ground Motion Models

ABSTRACT An essential component of seismic hazard analysis is the prediction of ground shaking (and its uncertainty), using ground-motion models (GMMs). This article proposes a new method to evaluate (i.e., rank) the suitability of GMMs for modeling ground motions in a given region. The method leverages a statistical tool from sensitivity analysis to quantitatively compare predictions of a GMM with underlying observations. We demonstrate the performance of the proposed method relative to several other popular GMM ranking procedures and highlight its advantages, which include its intuitive scoring system and its ability to account for the hierarchical structure of GMMs. We use the proposed method to evaluate the applicability of several GMMs for modeling ground motions from induced earthquakes due to U.K. shale gas development. The data consist of 195 recordings at hypocentral distances (R) less than 10 km for 29 events with local magnitude (ML) greater than 0 that relate to 2018/2019 hydraulic-fracture operations at the Preston New Road shale gas site in Lancashire and 192 R<10  km recordings for 48 ML>0 events induced—within the same geologic formation—by coal mining near New Ollerton, North Nottinghamshire. We examine: (1) the Akkar, Sandikkaya, and Bommer (2014) models for European seismicity; (2) the Douglas et al. (2013) model for geothermal-induced seismicity; and (3) the Atkinson (2015) model for central and eastern North America induced seismicity. We find the Douglas et al. (2013) model to be the most suitable for almost all of the considered ground-motion intensity measures. We modify this model by recomputing its coefficients in line with the observed data, to further improve its accuracy for future analyses of the seismic hazard of interest. This study both advances the state of the art in GMM evaluation and enhances understanding of the seismic hazard related to U.K. shale gas development.

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