Ground Motion-Based Testing of Seismic Hazard Models in New Zealand

2010 ◽  
Vol 100 (4) ◽  
pp. 1407-1414 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Stirling ◽  
M. Gerstenberger
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Hazard Models

Seismic Hazard and Loss Analysis for Spatially Distributed Infrastructure in Christchurch, New Zealand

2016 ◽  
Vol 32 (2) ◽  
pp. 697-712 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hasan Manzour ◽  
Rachel A. Davidson ◽  
Nick Horspool ◽  
Linda K. Nozick
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Average Error ◽  
Loss Analysis ◽  
Spatially Distributed ◽  
Small Set ◽  
Computationally Intensive ◽  
Distributed Infrastructure

The new Extended Optimization-Based Probabilistic Scenario method produces a small set of probabilistic ground motion maps to represent the seismic hazard for analysis of spatially distributed infrastructure. We applied the method to Christchurch, New Zealand, including a sensitivity analysis of key user-specified parameters. A set of just 124 ground motion maps were able to match the hazard curves based on a million-year Monte Carlo simulation with no error at the four selected return periods, mean spatial correlation errors of 0.03, and average error in the residential loss exceedance curves of 2.1%. This enormous computational savings in the hazard has substantial implications for regional-scale, policy decisions affecting lifelines or building inventories since it can allow many more downstream analyses and/or doing them using more sophisticated, computationally intensive methods. The method is robust, offering many equally good solutions and it can be solved using free open source optimization solvers.

Performance of response spectral models against New Zealand data

2017 ◽  
Vol 50 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-38 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chris Van Houtte
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Epistemic Uncertainty ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Strong Motion ◽  
Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Crustal Earthquakes ◽  
Spectral Models ◽  
Strong Motion Database

An important component of seismic hazard assessment is the prediction of the potential ground motion generated by a given earthquake source. In New Zealand seismic hazard studies, it is commonplace for analysts to only adopt one or two models for predicting the ground motion, which does not capture the epistemic uncertainty associated with the prediction. This study analyses a suite of New Zealand and international models against the New Zealand Strong Motion Database, both for New Zealand crustal earthquakes and earthquakes in the Hikurangi subduction zone. It is found that, in general, the foreign models perform similarly or better with respect to recorded New Zealand data than the models specifically derived for New Zealand application. Justification is given for using global models in future seismic hazard analysis in New Zealand. Although this article does not provide definitive model weights for future hazard analysis, some recommendations and guidance are provided.

scholarly journals Pitfalls in the estimation of seismic hazard

1982 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 77-81
Author(s):  
Warwick D. Smith
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Return Period ◽  
Earthquake Catalogue ◽  
Historical Past

Computer catalogues of earthquakes make it rather simple to extract lists of earthquakes that are likely to have affected sites of interest during the historical past, and it is tempting to use such lists for estimation of seismic hazard. What must be borne in mind, however, is that the seismological record is only part of the information required for hazard estimates, that the earthquake catalogue may not be complete and that early epicentres and magnitudes may have large uncertainties. If ground motion is estimated from these approximate epicentres, further uncertainties creep in. Some myths about the concept of return period are exploded, and a bibliography of studies relevant to seismic hazard in New Zealand is presented.

Evaluation of Ground‐Motion Models for U.S. Geological Survey Seismic Hazard Models: 2018 Anchorage, Alaska, Mw 7.1 Subduction Zone Earthquake Sequence

2019 ◽  
Vol 91 (1) ◽  
pp. 183-194 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel E. McNamara ◽  
Emily Wolin ◽  
Peter M. Powers ◽  
Alison M. Shumway ◽  
Morgan P. Moschetti ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Subduction Zone ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Hazard Model ◽  
Earthquake Sequence ◽  
Geological Survey ◽  
Hazard Models ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Motion Models ◽  
Ground Motion Models

Abstract Instrumental ground‐motion recordings from the 2018 Anchorage, Alaska (Mw 7.1), earthquake sequence provide an independent data set allowing us to evaluate the predictive power of ground‐motion models (GMMs) for intraslab earthquakes associated with the Alaska subduction zone. In this study, we evaluate 15 candidate GMMs using instrumental ground‐motion observations of peak ground acceleration and 5% damped pseudospectral acceleration (0.02–10 s) to inform logic‐tree weights for the update of the U.S. Geological Survey seismic hazard model for Alaska. GMMs are evaluated using two methods. The first is a total residual visualization approach that compares the probability density function, mean, and standard deviations σ of the observed and predicted ground motion. The second GMM evaluation method we use is the common total residual probabilistic scoring method (log likelihood [LLH]). The LLH method provides a single score that can be used to weight GMMs in the Alaska seismic hazard model logic trees. To test logic branches in previous seismic hazard models, we evaluate GMM performance as a function of depth and we demonstrate that some GMMs show improved performance for earthquakes with focal depths greater than 50 km. Ten of the initial 15 candidate GMMs fit the observed ground motions and meet established criteria for inclusion in the next update of the Alaska seismic hazard model.

scholarly journals Historical incidence of Modified Mercalli intensity in New Zealand and comparisons with hazard models

2003 ◽  
Vol 36 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-24 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. J. Dowrick ◽  
W. J. Cousins
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
First Century ◽  
Taupo Volcanic Zone ◽  
Hazard Models ◽  
Hazard Rates ◽  
Return Periods ◽  
Volcanic Zone ◽  
North West ◽  
The North

The historical incidence of Modified Mercalli intensity produced by earthquakes of magnitude Mw ≥ 5.25 and depth ≤ 100 km has been determined for 47 locations in New Zealand for the period 1840-1997 inclusive. Maps for the return periods of intensities MM4 - MM7 were prepared. The effects of the highly attenuating Taupo Volcanic Zone (TVZ) were shown to be important for hazard both in the zone and in areas to the north-west of it. The rate of occurrence of the higher intensities was found to be about 2.5 times greater in the first century of the study period than in the last 50 years. The historical seismic hazard rates for intensities MM5 and MM6 averaged across the country were found to be approximately half those of the now obsolete Smith & Berryman seismic hazard model, and 70% of those of the more recent Stirling et al model.

Insights into seismic hazard from big data analysis of ground motion simulations

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 01-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kristy F. Tiampo ◽  
Javad Kazemian ◽  
Hadi Ghofrani ◽  
Yelena Kropivnitskaya ◽  
Gero Michel
Keyword(s):  
Big Data ◽  
Data Analysis ◽  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Big Data Analysis ◽  
Ground Motion Simulations

A subset of CyberShake ground-motion time series for response-history analysis

2021 ◽  
pp. 875529302098197
Author(s):  
Jack W Baker ◽  
Sanaz Rezaeian ◽  
Christine A Goulet ◽  
Nicolas Luco ◽  
Ganyu Teng
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Los Angeles ◽  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Ground Motions ◽  
Response Spectra ◽  
Motion Time ◽  
History Analysis ◽  
Response History Analysis ◽  
Simulated Ground Motions

This manuscript describes a subset of CyberShake numerically simulated ground motions that were selected and vetted for use in engineering response-history analyses. Ground motions were selected that have seismological properties and response spectra representative of conditions in the Los Angeles area, based on disaggregation of seismic hazard. Ground motions were selected from millions of available time series and were reviewed to confirm their suitability for response-history analysis. The processes used to select the time series, the characteristics of the resulting data, and the provided documentation are described in this article. The resulting data and documentation are available electronically.

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