scholarly journals Comparison of Short-Term and Time-Independent Earthquake Forecast Models for Southern California

2006 ◽  
Vol 96 (1) ◽  
pp. 90-106 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Helmstetter
Keyword(s):  
Southern California ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Earthquake Forecast ◽  
Forecast Models

Comparison of three short-term load forecast models in Southern California

Energy ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 189 ◽  
pp. 116358 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ning Zhang ◽  
Zhiying Li ◽  
Xun Zou ◽  
Steven M. Quiring
Keyword(s):  
Southern California ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Load Forecast ◽  
Forecast Models

Alarm systems based on a pair of short-term earthquake precursors

1988 ◽  
Vol 78 (4) ◽  
pp. 1538-1549
Author(s):  
Giuseppe Grandori ◽  
Elisa Guagenti ◽  
Federico Perotti
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Analysis ◽  
Active Region ◽  
Southern California ◽  
Main Shock ◽  
Weak Shock ◽  
Earthquake Precursors ◽  
Alarm System ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Alarm Systems

Abstract A statistical analysis of the foreshock-main shock correlation for a seismically active region in Italy is presented. It is found that the probability that a weak shock be followed within 2 days by a main shock is of the order of 2 per cent, while the probability that a main shock be preceded by a foreshock is of the order of 50 per cent. These results are quite similar to those found by L. Jones (1985) for southern California. The effectiveness of alarm systems based on a pair of short-term earthquake precursors is then analyzed. In particular, the analysis shows under what conditions the precursor, consisting of potential foreshocks, could be combined with another precursor to provide a reasonably effective alarm system.

Statistical Monitoring and Early Forecasting of the Earthquake Sequence: Case Studies after the 2019 M 6.4 Searles Valley Earthquake, California

2020 ◽  
Vol 110 (4) ◽  
pp. 1781-1798 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yosihiko Ogata ◽  
Takahiro Omi
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Case Studies ◽  
Seismic Activity ◽  
Southern California ◽  
Aftershock Sequence ◽  
Earthquake Sequence ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Probability Forecast ◽  
Background Rate ◽  
High Background

ABSTRACT This study considers the possible implementation of the operational short-term forecasting, and analysis of earthquake occurrences using a real-time hypocenter catalog of ongoing seismic activity, by reviewing case studies of the aftershocks of the Mw 6.4 Searles Valley earthquake that occurred before the Mw 7.1 Ridgecrest earthquake. First, the short-term prediction of spatiotemporal activity is required in real time along with the background seismic activity over a wide region to obtain practical probabilities of large earthquakes; snapshots from the continuous forecasts during the Searles Valley and Ridgecrest earthquake sequence are included to monitor the growth and migration of seismic activity over time. We found that the area in and around the rupture zone in southern California had a very high background rate. Second, we need to evaluate whether a first strong earthquake may be the foreshock for a further large earthquake; the rupture region in southern California had one of the highest such probabilities. Third, short-term probability forecast of early aftershocks are much desired despite the difficulties with data acquisition. The aftershock sequence of the Mw 6.4 Searles Valley event was found to significantly increase the probability of a larger earthquake, as seen in the foreshock sequence of the 2016 MJMA 7.4 Kumamoto, Japan, earthquake. Finally, detrending the temporal activity of all the aftershocks by stretching and shrinking the ordinary time scale according to the rate given by the Omori–Utsu formula or the epidemic-type aftershock sequence model, we observe the spatiotemporal occurrences in which seismicity patterns may be abnormal, such as relative quiescence, relative activation, or migrating activity. Such anomalies should be recorded and listed for the future evaluation of the probability of a possible precursor for a large aftershock or a new rupture nearby. An example of such anomalies in the aftershocks before the Mw 7.1 Ridgecrest earthquake is considered.

Skatepark-Related Injuries in a Southern California Skatepark and Their Associated Short-Term Disability and Healthcare Utilization

2005 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 142-147 ◽  
Author(s):  
Federico Vaca ◽  
John Christian Fox ◽  
Danny Mai ◽  
Craig L Anderson ◽  
Kenneth T Kwon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Healthcare Utilization ◽  
Southern California ◽  
Short Term

scholarly journals Deriving Cloud Velocity From an Array of Solar Radiation Measurements

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juan L. Bosch ◽  
Yuehai Zheng ◽  
Jan Kleissl
Keyword(s):  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Test Bed ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Forecast ◽  
Main Variable ◽  
Input Radiation ◽  
Forecast Models ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Radiation Measurements ◽  
Good Agreement

Spatio-temporal variability of solar radiation is the main variable affecting the photovoltaic power feed-in to the grid. Clouds are the main source of such variability and their velocity is a principal input to most short-term forecast models. The main goal in this study is to estimate cloud speed using radio-metric data using measurements from 8 sensors located at the UC San Diego Solar Energy test bed. Two different methods were developed to estimate the cloud speed based on the correlation between the signals from different sensors. Our analysis showed good agreement between both methods. Additional measurements from nearby METAR and radiosonde stations also show comparable results. Both methods require high variability in the input radiation.

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