scholarly journals Weather extremums in Siberia in 2019 and their connection with circulation of the atmosphere

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 110-119
Author(s):  
N. K. Kononova
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Atmospheric Precipitation ◽  
Frequency Of Occurrence ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
Natural Processes ◽  
Natural Fires ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Irkutsk Region ◽  
Disastrous Flood

According to the circulation seasons [Dzerdzeevsky et al., 1946], according to the website Weather News, extreme events in the Asian territory of Russia for first half of 2019 were considered: daily maximums and minimums of air temperature; maximum daily amplitudes of air temperature, daily maximums and monthly lows of atmospheric precipitation; daily maximums wind speeds, maximum and minimum of snow depths and dangerous natural processes. Their connection with the atmospheric circulation of the Northern Hemisphere has been shown [Atmospheric Circulation fluctuations site 18992018]. In recent years, extreme situations are increasingly becoming apparent in the Asian part of Russia. This attracts the close attention of researchers [Latysheva et al., 2010; Zolina, Bulygina, 2016]. They try to identify the causes of what is happening [Vasilyev et al., 2018; Kononova, 2018; Kochugova, 2018; Tarabukina et al., 2018] and predict the future nature of extrema [Shkolnik et al., 2012]. It seemed interesting to analyze the extremes of the current year (more precisely, the first half of it), to show the real situation today. The majority of extremes, surpassed in the first half of 2019, refers to the 21st century. This means that extremity has been growing rapidly in recent years. The consequence of this is an increase in the frequency of occurrence of dangerous natural processes. The main source of information on daily meteorological extremes was Weather News [Meteonovosti.ru]. It briefly informed about fires and floods. More detailed information was taken from local sites [Amur.Info, Taiga.Info, Ulpress.ru, Social media news]. The character of atmospheric circulation was analyzed by classification [Dzerdzeevsky et al., 1946] using data from the site of the Atmospheric Circulation fluctuations.. for 1899 2018 The most disastrous flood was June 24 - 29 in the Irkutsk region. It destroyed more than 10,000 residential homes in 98 settlements, 43 schools, kindergartens and hospitals. According to information on July 11, 25 people died. The strongest were fires in the Krasnoyarsk Territory and the Irkutsk Region in the third decade of July. Smoke from them reached the Ulyanovsk region. The conducted research allows to draw the following conclusions. The number of extremes of both air temperature and precipitation in the XXI century continues to grow. Negative extremes of precipitation in combination with positive extremes of air temperature lead to natural fires, positive extremes of precipitation - to catastrophic floods. The increasing frequency of atmospheric circulation contributes to an increase in the frequency of occurrence of those and others: an increase in the frequency of occurrence of blocking processes (arctic invasions resulting in the formation of a vast stationary anticyclone) and exits of southern cyclones.

scholarly journals Influence of Atmospheric Circulation on Air Temperature and Precipitation in the Bydgoszcz–Toruń Region in the Period from 1921 to 2000

2009 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 19-37 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rajmund Przybylak ◽  
Rafał Maszewski
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Atmospheric Precipitation ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Meteorological Station ◽  
Air Mass ◽  
Research Results ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation

Abstract The following article presents the results of research on the influence of atmospheric circulation on air temperature and atmospheric precipitation in the Bydgoszcz-Toruń region (Poland) in the period 1921-2000. In order to do this, we have constructed a daily calendar of synoptic situations using criteria proposed by Niedźwiedź (1981). Daily values of air temperature and atmospheric precipitation were collected from the meteorological station in Toruń. Research results show that weather conditions in the study area are influenced predominantly by the direction of air mass advection and, to a lesser extent, by the prevailing type of isobaric system.

scholarly journals LONG-TERM TRENDS IN CHANGES IN METEOROLOGICAL PARAMETERS OF THE SEA OF AZOV REGION

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (5) ◽  
pp. 130-137
Author(s):  
L.V. Dashkevich ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
Precipitation Amount ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Atmospheric Precipitation ◽  
Sea Of Azov ◽  
Southern Coast ◽  
The Sea Of Azov ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
Seasonal Wind

The article discusses the long-term changes in air temperature, wind speed and precipitation amount according to observations at the Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Kerch, Genichesk hydrometeorological stations on the coast of the Sea of Azov Analysis of the data for the selected periods revealed an increase in the average values of air temperature from the beginning of the 20th to the beginning of the 21st centuries, both at annual values and for all seasons. The largest increase in average values was noted for the winter, slightly less for the spring-summer season. Warming affected the southern coast least of all. On the entire coast of the Sea of Azov, a decrease in the average annual and seasonal wind speeds is observed throughout the entire century under consideration. The value of the standard deviation of wind speeds has decreased significantly, especially in the winter season. The largest decrease in the average annual and seasonal wind speeds (more than 2 times) was noted at the Primorsko-Akhtarsk HMS. From the beginning of the 20th century to the beginning of the 21st century, there is an increase in the average annual amounts of atmospheric precipitation on the western and southern coast of the sea (by about 130 mm) with an increase in the variability of their amount from year to year. Seasonal changes in the distribution of precipitation were revealed: in the modern period, the proportion of winter and spring precipitation has increased, while the proportion of autumn and, especially, summer precipitation has decreased. The greatest changes in the precipitation regime were noted for the Primorsko-Akhtarsk HMS.

scholarly journals On the issue of fluctuations in the extreme maximum runoff under the conditions of the expected climate change in the Marmarik river basin

2020 ◽  
Vol 149 ◽  
pp. 03010
Author(s):  
Varduhi Margaryan ◽  
Elena Fedotova
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Atmospheric Precipitation ◽  
Maximum Flow ◽  
Absolute Maximum ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Runoff Rate ◽  
Maximum Runoff

The paper analyzes the peculiarities of formation of the absolute maximum runoff of the Marmarik river evaluates the patterns of multi-year fluctuations of maximum runoff rates in different river sites and gives a forecast of the maximum runoff in the context of global climate change. Absolute values of the maximum river runoff for different scenarios of climate change are estimated. The actual observational data of Armhydromet for maximum runoff rate, the air temperature and precipitation were used as the source material. As a result of the study, it turned out that there is only a tendency to decrease in the values of maximum runoff. It turned out that for all scenarios and cases in the Marmarik river basin, a different degree of changes in the maximum flow is observed. Moreover, the largest decrease in the maximum runoff of the Marmarik river basin is expected under the conditions of an increase in the average air temperature of the spring season by 2,7—3,9 degrees Celsius and a decrease in the amount of spring atmospheric precipitation by 2,4—2,6 %.

The main features of large-scale atmospheric circulation in the context of analyzing the consensus forecast of air temperature and precipitation for the 2020 Northern Eurasia summer

2021 ◽  
pp. 20-35
Author(s):  
R.M. Vilfand ◽  
◽  
K.A. Sumerova , ◽  
V.A. Tishchenko ◽  
V.M. Khan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Precipitation Forecast ◽  
Northern Eurasia ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Skill Scores ◽  
Circulation Indices ◽  
Arctic Ice ◽  
Large Scale Atmospheric Circulation

The main results of the analysis of the Northern Hemisphere large-scale atmospheric circulation features are presented for the 2020 summer. Skill scores of the consensus forecast for the 2020 Northern Eurasia summer are discussed in the context of analyzing the large-scale atmospheric circulation. The prognostic potential of the trend component in forecasting seasonal anomalies of air temperature and precipitation is noted. Keywords: air temperature, precipitation, forecast skill, trends, large-scale atmospheric circulation, sea surface temperature, NEACOF, circulation indices, Arctic ice

scholarly journals ASSESSMENT OF THE CURRENT STATE AND EXPECTED CHANGES IN AGRO-CLIMATIC RESOURCES OF THE GUBA-KHACHMAZ ECONOMIC REGION OF THE REPUBLIC OF AZERBAIJAN

2021 ◽  
Vol 31 (4) ◽  
pp. 455-466
Author(s):  
M.M. Magerramova
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Atmospheric Precipitation ◽  
Warm Period ◽  
High Mountain ◽  
Frequency Of Occurrence ◽  
Economic Region ◽  
Current State ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

The article discusses some issues of assessing the current state and expected changes in agro-climatic resources of the Guba-Khachmaz economic region. Research methods are selected and substantiated. The issues of interpretation of agro-climatic information are considered to determine modern "norms" of agro-climatic indicators and assess the impact of regional climate change on these resources. To assess the impact of climate change on agroclimatic resources, such indicators as the date of the transition of the average daily air temperature above 10 °C in the spring and below 10 °C in the fall, the length of the warm period, the sum of active air temperatures above 10 °C, the sum of precipitation and the hydrothermal coefficient Selyaninov for the warm season. For example, it is shown that with the expected increase in air temperature by 2 °C, the beginning of the warm period will begin in the lowland, foothill and mid-mountain zones by 8-10 days, and in the highlands by 22 days earlier than in the modern period. In autumn, the end of the warm period is expected 11-15 days later; the length of the warm period is expected to increase by 20-23 days in the lowland, foothill and mid-mountain zones and by 37 days in the high-mountain zone. It is also expected that the sum of active temperatures will increase by 581-665 °C for the warm period. It was revealed that the most susceptible to the influence of an increase in global air temperature by 2 °C will be medium and high mountain zones. With an increase in air temperature in the future by 4 °C and a decrease in atmospheric precipitation by 20 %, the frequency of occurrence of the 1st group of drought with height will increase from 6 % to 33 %, the frequency of occurrence of the 2-nd group will change from -14 % to + 50 %, and the first group will decrease by 13-57 %. With an increase in air temperature in the future by 2 °C and a decrease in atmospheric precipitation by 20 %, the frequency of occurrence of various groups of drought will be similar to the previous variant. Also, an assessment was made of possible changes in the frequency of drought with different intensities.

scholarly journals The frequency of occurrence of extreme and detrimental meteorological conditions for vegetation of crops in Poland (1971–2010)

2016 ◽  
Vol 48 (2) ◽  
pp. 165-172
Author(s):  
Agnieszka Ziernicka-Wojtaszek
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
Extreme Values ◽  
Thermal Conditions ◽  
Vegetation Period ◽  
Meteorological Conditions ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Frequency Of Occurrence ◽  
Mean Values ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
June July

Abstract The frequency of occurrence of extreme and detrimental meteorological conditions for vegetation of crops in Poland (1971-2010). The subject, and aim of this study is the comparison of the frequency of occurrence of thermal, precipitation and pluvio-thermal conditions detrimental to agriculture in Poland during two periods: 1971-2000 and 1981-2010, constituting the former, and the current climate normal, respectively. Each month of the vegetation period (April-October) was, in accordance with the current accounts carried out by agriculture correspondents, assigned to one of the following categories: favorable for vegetation, dry, dry and cool, cool, cool and humid, humid, dry and hot. An identical classification of meteorological vegetation conditions was also carried out for months characterized by extreme air temperature and precipitation values. Extreme values were defined as those monthly temperature mean values, and monthly precipitation totals, the probability of exceeding of which is lower than 10%, i.e. their probability of occurrence, or the socalled recurrence interval, is once every 10 years. The differences existing between the analyzed 30-year periods, can be attributed to the present day climate change - a significant increase in air temperature in April, June, July, and August, with a lack of significant precipitation trends. In the two compared periods, an increase in the number of extreme months from 74 to 82 was stated. The biggest changes during the extreme months were observed for precipitation deficits combined with hot air temperatures, namely, an increase from 15 to 29 months. In general, all the analyzed months of the vegetation period showed an increase in dry months (90 to 105 cases) and a decrease in cool months (44 to 24 cases).

Climatic features of the 2020/2021 winter season and the air temperature and precipitation outlook for the summer of 2021 over Northern Eurasia

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 ◽  
pp. 6-19
Author(s):  
V.M. Khan ◽  
◽  
R.M. Vilfand ◽  
E.V. Emelina ◽  
E.S. Kaverina ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Northern Eurasia ◽  
Consensus Forecasts ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Skill Scores ◽  
Large Scale Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Climatic Features

Climatic features of the 2020/2021 winter season and the air temperature and precipitation outlook for the summer of 2021 over Northern Eurasia / Khan V.M., Vilfand R.M., Emelina E.V., Kaverina E.S., Kulikova I.A., Sumerova K.A., Tischenko V.A. // Hydrometeorological Research and Forecasting, 2021, no. 2 (380), pp. 6-19. The main features of the Northern Hemisphere large-scale atmospheric circulation are analyzed for the past 2020/2021 winter. The accuracy of consensus forecasts of air temperature and precipitation compiled during the work of the 19th session of the North Eurasian Climate Outlook Forum (NEACOF-19) is presented, with the skill scores of consensus forecasts for Northern Eurasia. The main features of the thermal state of the ocean and large-scale atmospheric circulation for the coming summer of 2021 are considered and analyzed. A forecast of surface air temperature and precipitation anomalies for the summer of 2021 agreed with the NEACOF-20 experts is formulated. Keywords: North Eurasian Climate Outlook Forum, North Eurasian Climate Center, consensus forecast, air temperature, precipitation, large-scale atmospheric circulation, hydrodynamic models, sea surface temperature

scholarly journals The Characteristics Of Extreme Maximum Runoff Of The Rivers Of Armenia In The Context Of Global Climate Change

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 196-208
Author(s):  
Trahel G. Vardanyan ◽  
Natalia L. Frolova ◽  
Hrachuhi S. Galstyan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Atmospheric Precipitation ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Nonparametric Test ◽  
River Basins ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
The Republic

The study concerned the analysis of temporal and spatial variability of floods in the Republic of Armenia (RA). While there are number of reports on flood formation of rivers in RA, the literature lacks results on using nonparametric test results to analyze this disastrous phenomenon. For that purpose, the dynamics of changes in extreme maximum instantaneous runoff, as well as air temperature and precipitation database was evaluated and compared between 1960–2012 for 27 hydrometrical observational and 35 meteorological stations in RA. The Mann-Kendall test with consideration of the autocorrelation function was employed as a non-parametric testto identify any present trends. An increasing tendency of air temperature, decreasing tendency of the atmospheric precipitation and extreme maximum instantaneous river runoff were identified in the studied river-basins. As expected, the warming climate contributed to a gradual melting of accumulated snow in the river-basins in winter, resulting in changes in the extreme maximum instantaneous runoff of the rivers in spring, which significantly reduces the risk of the flood occurrence. Thus, it can be claimed that almost all the river basins of Armenia have a tendency to reduce the risk of floods due to global climate change.

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