ANALYSIS OF MATHEMATICAL MODELS OF POPULATION DYNAMICS APPLIED TO PHILIPPINE POPULATION GROWTH

2018 ◽  
Vol 103 (3) ◽  
pp. 561-571
Author(s):  
Harold Jan R. Terano
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Mathematical Models

scholarly journals Quantifying the effect of genetic, environmental and individual demographic stochastic variability for population dynamics in Plantago lanceolata

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ulrich K. Steiner ◽  
Shripad Tuljapurkar ◽  
Deborah A. Roach
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Population Change ◽  
Adaptive Dynamics ◽  
Plantago Lanceolata ◽  
Environmental Parameters ◽  
Experimental Population ◽  
Stochastic Variation ◽  
Survival And Reproduction ◽  
Stochastic Events

AbstractSimple demographic events, the survival and reproduction of individuals, drive population dynamics. These demographic events are influenced by genetic and environmental parameters, and are the focus of many evolutionary and ecological investigations that aim to predict and understand population change. However, such a focus often neglects the stochastic events that individuals experience throughout their lives. These stochastic events also influence survival and reproduction and thereby evolutionary and ecological dynamics. Here, we illustrate the influence of such non-selective demographic variability on population dynamics using population projection models of an experimental population of Plantago lanceolata. Our analysis shows that the variability in survival and reproduction among individuals is largely due to demographic stochastic variation with only modest effects of differences in environment, genes, and their interaction. Common expectations of population growth, based on expected lifetime reproduction and generation time, can be misleading when demographic stochastic variation is large. Large demographic stochastic variation exhibited within genotypes can lower population growth and slow evolutionary adaptive dynamics. Our results accompany recent investigations that call for more focus on stochastic variation in fitness components, such as survival, reproduction, and functional traits, rather than dismissal of this variation as uninformative noise.

Life history and environmental influences on population dynamics in sockeye salmon

2014 ◽  
Vol 71 (8) ◽  
pp. 1198-1208 ◽  
Author(s):  
Douglas C. Braun ◽  
John D. Reynolds
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Life History ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Environmental Conditions ◽  
Sockeye Salmon ◽  
Life History Traits ◽  
Relative Importance ◽  
Population Growth Rates ◽  
Habitat Variables

Understanding linkages among life history traits, the environment, and population dynamics is a central goal in ecology. We compared 15 populations of sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) to test general hypotheses for the relative importance of life history traits and environmental conditions in explaining variation in population dynamics. We used life history traits and habitat variables as covariates in mixed-effect Ricker models to evaluate the support for correlates of maximum population growth rates, density dependence, and variability in dynamics among populations. We found dramatic differences in the dynamics of populations that spawn in a small geographical area. These differences among populations were related to variation in habitats but not life history traits. Populations that spawned in deep water had higher and less variable population growth rates, and populations inhabiting streams with larger gravels experienced stronger negative density dependence. These results demonstrate, in these populations, the relative importance of environmental conditions and life histories in explaining population dynamics, which is rarely possible for multiple populations of the same species. Furthermore, they suggest that local habitat variables are important for the assessment of population status, especially when multiple populations with different dynamics are managed as aggregates.

Survival and recruitment in the population ecology of the endangered Bombina pachypus (Amphibia: Anura)

2018 ◽  
Vol 39 (3) ◽  
pp. 265-274
Author(s):  
Claudio Angelini ◽  
Andrea Tiberi ◽  
Bruno Cari ◽  
Filippo Giachi
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Breeding Site ◽  
Juvenile Dispersal ◽  
Relative Contribution ◽  
Annual Population ◽  
Conservation Concern ◽  
Local Recruitment ◽  
Effective Conservation ◽  
High Recruitment

Abstract Global amphibian decline is a subject of great conservation concern, yet often basic demographic information is absent, which prevents the understanding of population trends and the planning of effective conservation management. We analysed capture-mark-recapture data from six populations of the endangered Bombina pachypus in order to understand the relative contribution of survival and recruitment to population growth, and to assess if any differences exist among populations in terms of their population dynamics. We found that survival was rather high and generally constant among sites, and recruitment was low, with the exception of two single years at one site. Population growth depended on survival on all sites, except the years following high recruitment at one site. Annual population size was generally lower than 30 individuals, but in one site it was estimated to be larger than 50. Our findings suggest that juvenile survival is more important for population dynamics than recruitment from the larval to the juvenile stage. We also suggest that the low recruitment rates we recorded was a result of juvenile dispersal, and that when populations exhibited high recruitment it was due to occasional successful migration or local recruitment. This pattern could represent a way to counterbalance the risk of inbreeding in populations composed of few individuals, a common characteristic of populations of B. pachypus. Finally, we suggest that conservation measures for B. pachypus should be planned at the landscape scale, and should not be limited solely to the breeding site and its close surroundings.

Modeling virus pandemics in a globally connected world a challenge towards a mathematics for living systems

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-7
Author(s):  
N. Bellomo ◽  
F. Brezzi ◽  
M. A. J. Chaplain
Keyword(s):  
Complex System ◽  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Modeling And Simulation ◽  
Critical Analysis ◽  
Living Systems ◽  
Special Issue ◽  
Research Perspectives ◽  
Heterogeneous Features

This editorial paper presents the papers published in a special issue devoted to the modeling and simulation of mutating virus pandemics in a globally connected world. The presentation is proposed in three parts. First, motivations and objectives are presented according to the idea that mathematical models should go beyond deterministic population dynamics by considering the multiscale, heterogeneous features of the complex system under consideration. Subsequently, the contents of the papers in this issue are presented referring to the aforementioned complexity features. Finally, a critical analysis of the overall contents of the issue is proposed, with the aim of providing a forward look to research perspectives.

scholarly journals Breeding transients in capture–recapture modeling and their consequences for local population dynamics

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Oro ◽  
Daniel F. Doak
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Population Growth Rate ◽  
Local Population ◽  
Environmental Stochasticity ◽  
Adult Survival ◽  
Local Survival ◽  
First Reproduction ◽  
Capture Recapture

Abstract Standard procedures for capture–mark–recapture modelling (CMR) for the study of animal demography include running goodness-of-fit tests on a general starting model. A frequent reason for poor model fit is heterogeneity in local survival among individuals captured for the first time and those already captured or seen on previous occasions. This deviation is technically termed a transience effect. In specific cases, simple, uni-state CMR modeling showing transients may allow researchers to assess the role of these transients on population dynamics. Transient individuals nearly always have a lower local survival probability, which may appear for a number of reasons. In most cases, transients arise due to permanent dispersal, higher mortality, or a combination of both. In the case of higher mortality, transients may be symptomatic of a cost of first reproduction. A few studies working at large spatial scales actually show that transients more often correspond to survival costs of first reproduction rather than to permanent dispersal, bolstering the interpretation of transience as a measure of costs of reproduction, since initial detections are often associated with first breeding attempts. Regardless of their cause, the loss of transients from a local population should lower population growth rate. We review almost 1000 papers using CMR modeling and find that almost 40% of studies fitting the searching criteria (N = 115) detected transients. Nevertheless, few researchers have considered the ecological or evolutionary meaning of the transient phenomenon. Only three studies from the reviewed papers considered transients to be a cost of first reproduction. We also analyze a long-term individual monitoring dataset (1988–2012) on a long-lived bird to quantify transients, and we use a life table response experiment (LTRE) to measure the consequences of transients at a population level. As expected, population growth rate decreased when the environment became harsher while the proportion of transients increased. LTRE analysis showed that population growth can be substantially affected by changes in traits that are variable under environmental stochasticity and deterministic perturbations, such as recruitment, fecundity of experienced individuals, and transient probabilities. This occurred even though sensitivities and elasticities of these parameters were much lower than those for adult survival. The proportion of transients also increased with the strength of density-dependence. These results have implications for ecological and evolutionary studies and may stimulate other researchers to explore the ecological processes behind the occurrence of transients in capture–recapture studies. In population models, the inclusion of a specific state for transients may help to make more reliable predictions for endangered and harvested species.

Boom! Mathematical Models for Population Growth

2003 ◽  
pp. 117-142
Author(s):  
Mohammad Moazzam ◽  
Richard H. Schwartz
Keyword(s):  
Population Growth ◽  
Mathematical Models

scholarly journals Weather influences M. arvalis reproduction but not population dynamics in a 17-year time series

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick Giraudoux ◽  
Petra Villette ◽  
Jean-Pierre Quéré ◽  
Jean-Pierre Damange ◽  
Pierre Delattre
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Demographic Data ◽  
Common Vole ◽  
Empirical Work ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Female Reproduction ◽  
Population Growth Rates

Abstract Rodent outbreaks have plagued European agriculture for centuries, but continue to elude comprehensive explanation. Modelling and empirical work in some cyclic rodent systems suggests that changes in reproductive parameters are partly responsible for observed population dynamics. Using a 17-year time series of Microtus arvalis population abundance and demographic data, we explored the relationship between meteorological conditions (temperature and rainfall), female reproductive activity, and population growth rates in a non-cyclic population of this grassland vole species. We found strong but complex relationships between female reproduction and climate variables, with spring female reproduction depressed after cold winters. Population growth rates were, however, uncorrelated with either weather conditions (current and up to three months prior) or with female reproduction (number of foetuses per female and/or proportion of females reproductively active in the population). These results, coupled with age-structure data, suggest that mortality, via predation, disease, or a combination of the two, are responsible for the large multi-annual but non-cyclic population dynamics observed in this population of the common vole.

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