scholarly journals Imprecise sensitivity analysis of system reliability based on the Bayesian network and probability box

2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 508-519
Author(s):  
He Liang ◽  
Jinhua Mi ◽  
Libing Bai ◽  
Yuhua Cheng
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Bayesian Network ◽  
System Reliability

System Reliability-Based Design Optimization Under Tradeoff Between Reduction of Sampling Uncertainty and Design Shift

2019 ◽  
Vol 141 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sangjune Bae ◽  
Nam H. Kim ◽  
Seung-gyo Jang
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Design Optimization ◽  
Failure Probability ◽  
System Reliability ◽  
Global Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Conservative System ◽  
Reliability Based Design Optimization ◽  
Sampling Uncertainty ◽  
Reliability Based Design

This paper presents a tradeoff between shifting design and controlling sampling uncertainty in system reliability-based design optimization (RBDO) using the Bayesian network. The sampling uncertainty is caused by a finite number of samples used in calculating the reliability of a component, and it propagates to the system reliability. A conservative failure probability is utilized to consider sampling uncertainty. In this paper, the sensitivity of a conservative system failure probability is derived with respect to the design change and the number of samples in a component using Bayesian network along with global sensitivity analysis (GSA). In the sensitivity analysis, GSA is used for local sensitivity calculation. The numerical results show that sampling uncertainty can significantly affect the conservative system reliability and needs to be controlled to achieve the desired level of system reliability. Numerical examples show that both shifting design and reducing sampling uncertainty are crucial in the system RBDO.

scholarly journals Modeling the City Distribution System Reliability with Bayesian Networks to Identify Influence Factors

2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hao Zhang ◽  
Liyu Zhu ◽  
Shensi Xu
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Networks ◽  
Bayesian Network ◽  
System Reliability ◽  
Distribution System ◽  
Complex Problem ◽  
Practical Significance ◽  
Correlation Degree ◽  
Urban Distribution ◽  
Distribution System Reliability ◽  
The City

Under the increasingly uncertain economic environment, the research on the reliability of urban distribution system has great practical significance for the integration of logistics and supply chain resources. This paper summarizes the factors that affect the city logistics distribution system. Starting from the research of factors that influence the reliability of city distribution system, further construction of city distribution system reliability influence model is built based on Bayesian networks. The complex problem is simplified by using the sub-Bayesian network, and an example is analyzed. In the calculation process, we combined the traditional Bayesian algorithm and the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm, which made the Bayesian model able to lay a more accurate foundation. The results show that the Bayesian network can accurately reflect the dynamic relationship among the factors affecting the reliability of urban distribution system. Moreover, by changing the prior probability of the node of the cause, the correlation degree between the variables that affect the successful distribution can be calculated. The results have significant practical significance on improving the quality of distribution, the level of distribution, and the efficiency of enterprises.

Bayesian Networks Application in Multi-State System Reliability Analysis

2013 ◽  
Vol 347-350 ◽  
pp. 2590-2595 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sheng Zhai ◽  
Shu Zhong Lin
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
System Reliability ◽  
Prior Probability ◽  
State System ◽  
Weak Links ◽  
Uncertain Reasoning ◽  
Reliability Modeling ◽  
Line System ◽  
Reliability Indices

Aiming at the limitations of traditional reliability analysis theory in multi-state system, a method for reliability modeling and assessment of a multi-state system based on Bayesian Network (BN) is proposed with the advantages of uncertain reasoning and describing multi-state of event. Through the case of cell production line system, in this paper we will discuss how to establish and construct a multi-state system model based on Bayesian network, and how to apply the prior probability and posterior probability to do the bidirectional inference analysis, and directly calculate the reliability indices of the system by means of prior probability and Conditional Probability Table (CPT) . Thereby we can do the qualitative and quantitative analysis of the multi-state system reliability, identify the weak links of the system, and achieve assessment of system reliability.

Fault Diagnosis and Reliability Growth for Information System

2014 ◽  
Vol 590 ◽  
pp. 763-767
Author(s):  
Zhi Hui Huang
Keyword(s):  
Information System ◽  
Bayesian Network ◽  
System Reliability ◽  
Functional Module ◽  
Decision Problems ◽  
Reliability Growth ◽  
Failure Data ◽  
Manufacturing Execution Systems ◽  
Growth Planning ◽  
Manufacturing Execution

This paper aiming at the zero-failure data and uncertain-decision problems exist in the information system reliability growth process, it proposes to build the Bayesian network topology of FMEA. It adopts Leaky Noisy-OR model, and it analyses the probability that the subsystem functional module will go wrong in quantity. It solves the problem of identifying the vague and incomplete information exists in the complex system rapidly and accurately, laying the foundation for further study of the reliability growth comprehensive ability assessment of system based on the Bayesian network. In this paper, on the background of Manufacturing Execution Systems (MES) engineering, aimed at research on models and evaluation methods of reliability growth for MES, enclosing reliability of MES task and design target, reliability growth test and analysis methods, it proposes the goal of MES reliability growth planning.

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